Ravens vs Dolphins Thursday Night Football Picks: Lamar Jackson Returns as 7.5-Point Road Favorite

• The Baltimore Ravens are big road favorites against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football
• Lamar Jackson returns for Baltimore after a three-game absence
• See my Ravens vs Dolphins expert picks and predictions, plus the latest TNF odds and betting splits

The Baltimore Ravens (2-5, 0-2 away) visit the Miami Dolphins (2-6, 1-2 home) on Thursday Night Football. The Ravens march into Hard Rock Stadium as significant road favorites as star QB Lamar Jackson returns from a hamstring injury that’s kept him out since late September.

Below, I have set out my Ravens vs Dolphins picks and predictions, plus the key betting trends, latest TNF odds and public-betting splits.

Ravens vs Dolphins: Predictions, Best Bets & Key Trends

Best Bet: Ravens -7.5 (-110) at bet365
Best Prop: Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown (+185) at ESPN Bet
Game Total: Over 50.5 (-120) at Underdog

BAL vs MIA ATS Pick: Baltimore Ravens -7.5

While backing a road favorite with a spread over a touchdown can be daunting, the trends overwhelmingly support the Ravens in this specific situation. Baltimore has been an absolute juggernaut when heavily favored, posting a perfect 6-0 record against the spread in their last six games when favored by a touchdown or more. They haven’t just won these games; they’ve dominated them, and they’ve also won their last six straight-up in this spot.

Conversely, Miami has faltered when positioned as the underdog:

• 1-5 straight-up in their last six games as an underdog
• 1-4 straight-up as an underdog this season
• 2-7 straight-up over their last nine games

Miami’s defensive injuries, particularly the questionable status of linebacker Bradley Chubb, further tip the scales. A less-than-100% pass rush against Lamar Jackson is a recipe for disaster. While Baltimore has posted a concerning 1-4 ATS record in their last five games overall, the much more specific and compelling trend is their dominance as a heavy favorite. Trust the Ravens to exploit a struggling Miami team and keep their season alive in an underperforming AFC North, where they trail division-leading Pittsburgh (4-3) by two games.

BAL vs MIA Total Points Pick: Over 50.5

The betting trends for the total in this game are about as one-sided as they come. Both offenses have been consistently involved in high-scoring affairs, making the over a compelling play despite the high line of 50.5.

• Ravens: The over has hit in six of seven games this season, all five games as a favorite, and seven of their last eight when favored by a touchdown or more
• Dolphins: The over has hit in six of eight games this season, all three of their home games, and in each of their last nine games at home
• Matchup-Specific: The over has hit in each of the last six Ravens games against bottom-10 rushing defenses and the last five against bottom-10 scoring defenses

With both teams demonstrating a strong propensity for shootouts and facing defenses with exploitable weaknesses, all signs point to the scoreboard lighting up.

Best BAL vs MIA Player Prop: Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown

One of Baltimore’s main statistical weaknesses this season has been its red-zone offense, where they convert touchdowns on just 45.8% of their attempts. In a game where the Ravens are expected to move the ball with ease, expect Jackson to target his most-reliable red-zone target, tight end Mark Andrews.

At +180 odds, there is significant value in betting on the star tight end to find the end zone against a banged-up Miami defense.

Ravens vs Dolphins Public Betting Splits

The public and professional bettors appear largely aligned in this matchup, with a significant amount of money flowing toward the favored Ravens and the over in the Week 9 NFL public betting splits. The moneyline market, in particular, shows an overwhelming consensus on a Ravens victory.

Here’s a breakdown of where the money is going:

• Moneyline: A staggering 89.66% of the money is backing the Baltimore Ravens to win outright
• Point Spread: Bettors are also siding with the favorites against the spread, with 56.07% of the handle placed on the Ravens -7.5
• Total Points: There is a clear expectation for a shootout, as a massive 79.54% of the money is on the over

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins Odds

The current betting market lists the Ravens at -420 on the moneyline or shorter, with FanDuel offering the best price. The Dolphins are as long as +350 underdogs (bet365). The spread is BAL -7.5 across the board with only minor variations in price.

The game total ranges from 50.5 to 51.5. Under bettors should take 51.5 (-110) at DraftKings, while over bettors should take 50.5 (-120) at Underdog.

The current moneyline odds give the Ravens a 81.98% implied win probability, compared to just 22.22% for the Dolphins. Without the vig, the probabilities are 78.7% for BAL and 21.3% for MIA.

BAL vs MIA Odds Movement

The moneyline has moved in Baltimore’s favor since the opening Week 9 lines were released. The Ravens were -355 chalk with the Dolphins at +285. The spread has stayed at 7.5 but the price on Baltimore has shortened from -104 to -110 (or shorter at many books).

The biggest odds movement has come on the total, which opened at just 48.5 and has been bet up as many as three points.