Week 10 NFL Predictions: Computer Score Projections, Expert Picks & Upset Analysis

Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season kicks off after Thursday’s snooze-fest between the Raiders and Broncos. Denver limped to a 10-7 win in what could stand as the most boring game of the 2025-26 season. With three turnovers, 22 penalties, and no completed pass longer than 13 yards, let’s hope the rest of Week 10 gives us something better to watch.

I went 2-1 again on my NFL picks last weekend. My Chicago Bears moneyline best bet cashed when Chicago staged a wild 47-42 comeback win over Cincinnati. In terms of my upset picks, the Broncos rallied for an 18-15 win in Houston on a last-second field goal. However, Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers ran all over my Giants upset pick, winning 34-24.

Weather is a big factor in Week 10, as rain is forecasted in several matchups. Not to mention, there’s expected to be snow when the Giants visit Chicago. I’m targeting the Patriots and Steelers as my upset picks, both of which are getting points on the road. For spread analysis, check out Zach Reger’s NFL picks against the spread for Week 10.

Week 10 NFL Predictions

The computer model is picking two upsets this week, projecting the Vikings to beat Baltimore and the Patriots to defeat Tampa Bay. The model and I align on the Patriots upset pick, but I’m not predicting Baltimore to lose to Minnesota with Lamar Jackson back in the fold.

In terms of my Steelers upset pick, the model projects a 24.7-18.3 final score in favor of the Chargers in that game. That’s certainly not a wide margin, but I still feel like the betting market hasn’t fully priced in all of LA’s injuries.

The most lopsided NFL Week 10 computer projections are the Bills defeating Miami 33.9-12.4 and the Broncos holding Las Vegas to 6.1 points in a 20-point victory. I can’t fault the model for those projected scores, given the current states of both the Dolphins and the Raiders.

NFL Best Bet for Week 10

Patriots-Buccaneers Under 48.5 (-105)

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 9, 2025 at 8:34am

Pick

Odds

Under +48.5

Over/Under

NFL • New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

-105 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 11/09/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1762677255538-481c-761

I love two plays in this Patriots vs Bucs game: New England plus the points and the Under. The Under 48.5 is my best bet on DraftKings because this game sets up perfectly for a defensive struggle.

The Patriots come in without Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) and Kayshon Boutte (hamstring). Stevenson’s been out two weeks now, leaving rookie TreVeyon Henderson as the featured back. He managed just 55 yards on 14 carries last week. Boutte leads the Pats with five touchdown catches. His 431 receiving yards rank second on the team.

Tampa Bay’s dealing with even bigger losses. Chris Godwin’s fibula injury keeps him out until late November at the earliest. Mike Evans suffered a broken collarbone, which ends his season. Bucky Irving averaged 108 rushing yards in his first three games but hasn’t played since Week 4 with foot and shoulder injuries. Add in Haason Reddick being out, and the Bucs are missing four starters.

Bucky Irving (foot, shoulder), Chris Godwin (fibula) won't play Week 10.

— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) November 7, 2025

Both defenses are elite. New England ranks sixth in scoring defense at 18.8 points per game and first against the run, allowing just 75.4 yards per game. Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed just 15 points per game over their last three games. They held the 49ers to 19 and the Lions to 24 – both well below their season averages.

The red zone inefficiency on both sides seals this NFL upset pick for me. The Patriots allow touchdowns on 75% of opponent red zone trips (dead last), but Tampa Bay only converts 50% of their red zone chances (26th in the league). Bad red zone offense beats bad red zone defense every time. That means field goals instead of touchdowns.

The total opened at 49.5 and has already dropped to 48.5 at most books. That’s respected money coming in on the Under in the Patriots vs Buccaneers odds. I recommended betting this number before it potentially drops one last time before kickoff.

NFL Week 10 Upset Picks

New England Patriots (+2.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 9, 2025 at 8:35am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

125 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 11/09/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1762677348820-481c-621

Yes, I just listed all of New England’s injuries. But I’m still predicting the Patriots to win, and I’ll explain why.

New England is simply a healthier team in the most significant matchup areas. Tampa Bay is missing BOTH starting receivers and their explosive running back. The Patriots are missing depth pieces, but their core offensive weapons—Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry—all suit up Sunday.

Mike Vrabel has this team humming. The Patriots are on a six-game winning streak, the longest for any coach in their first season with New England. Over the last six games, they’ve outscored opponents 91-14 in the second and third quarters. That’s elite coaching.

Mike Vrabel has all the faith in @DrakeMaye2 🤞 pic.twitter.com/FZohkTmgZH

— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2025

Drake Maye has been phenomenal, completing 74.1% of his passes with 17 touchdowns through nine games. That completion percentage leads the entire NFL among qualified passers. He faces a Tampa Bay defense missing Haason Reddick and potentially Lavonte David. Without their pass rush at full strength, Maye will have time to pick them apart.

New England is unbeaten on the road (4-0) and 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games. They’ve covered in three straight as a road underdog. They’re averaging 26.3 points per game, 12th in the NFL, while Tampa Bay sits at 24.1 (16th).

Here’s something else worth noting: Todd Bowles is 1-8 against the Patriots in his career as a head coach. That’s the worst record for any active coach against a single opponent (minimum 8 games). His teams average just 14.7 points against New England while giving up 28.3.

This betting line opened Tampa Bay -4.5 and crashed all the way to -2.5. Sharp action on New England caused the line to shift a full two points, which is rare in NFL betting land. The computer projects the Patriots winning 23-17 as highlighted above. When the model, big money, and injuries all point in one direction, I don’t go against the grain.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over Los Angeles Chargers

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 9, 2025 at 8:36am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers

136 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 11/10/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1762677411045-481c-387

For my second Week 10 NFL upset pick, I’m backing another road underdog in what should be a defensive grind-it-out game on Sunday night.

The Steelers have the formula to win this game. Their red zone offense ranks seventh in the NFL at 68%, while the Chargers’ red zone offense sits at just 50%, ranked 26th. Pittsburgh has a +9 turnover differential compared to LA’s -4. That’s a 13-turnover swing between these teams.

Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in their last seven Week 10 games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after allowing over 250 passing yards. They bounce back consistently. The Chargers? They’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six games and only 2-2 at home this season. SoFi Stadium doesn’t provide a real home-field advantage with its often neutral crowd.

Forget the betting trends for a second, though. This pick is really about the trenches. The Chargers lost starting tackle Joe Alt for the season. Guards Zion Johnson (shoulder) and Jamaree Salyer (knee) are both questionable. That’s three starters on the offensive line either out or banged up.

On true defensive line sacks yesterday against the best Offense in football the Steelers defensive front averaged a snap to sack time of 2.48 seconds. We're past Halloween but it could get very spooky next Sunday if the Chargers don't have a run game or protection plan to hold up… pic.twitter.com/tLkSH0nvz5

— Breiden Fehoko (@BreidenFehoko) November 3, 2025

Now, this patchwork unit has to protect Justin Herbert against T.J. Watt and a Pittsburgh pass rush that’s generated 27 sacks. Herbert’s been sacked 20 times already this season. Behind a makeshift offensive line, that number could increase in a big way Sunday night.

Aaron Rodgers has been getting the ball out quickly for Pittsburgh, and they’re averaging 25.3 points per game, more than the Chargers’ 23.9. The Steelers have the better scoring offense, the better red zone efficiency, and the better turnover margin. I understand why oddsmakers are siding with Harbaugh and Herbert, as LA keeps finding ways to win games.

But the NFL public betting percentages are telling us something. There is 59% of the moneyline handle, but only 38% of tickets on a Steelers upset. That’s the big bets predicting Pittsburgh wins outright. The SNF spread has already dropped a full point from 3.5 to 2.5. Give me the Steelers to rack up another road win after their victory over Indianapolis.

Most Impactful NFL Injuries for Week 10

Falcons at Colts

• Leonard Floyd, DE (Falcons): OUT – Hamstring
• DeForest Buckner, DT (Colts): OUT – Placed on IR (neck)
• Samson Ebukam, DE (Colts): OUT – Knee

Buckner’s loss is massive for Indianapolis. The three-time Pro Bowler anchors their defensive line. He’ll miss at least four games.

Bills at Dolphins

• A.J. Epenesa, DE (Bills): OUT – Concussion
• Shaq Thompson, LB (Bills): OUT – Hamstring
• Chop Robinson, LB (Dolphins): DOUBTFUL – Concussion
• Rasul Douglas, CB (Dolphins): DOUBTFUL – Foot/Ankle

Miami’s defense takes another hit with Robinson and Douglas likely out. Buffalo’s pass rush loses depth without Epenesa.

Jaguars at Texans

• Brian Thomas Jr., WR (Jaguars): OUT – Ankle
• C.J. Stroud, QB (Texans): OUT – Concussion
• Ka’imi Fairbairn, K (Texans): OUT – Quad

Stroud’s absence is huge. Davis Mills gets the start for Houston. Jacksonville loses their top receiver in Thomas, putting more pressure on new addition Jakobi Meyers.

Patriots at Buccaneers

• Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (Patriots): OUT – Toe
• Kayshon Boutte, WR (Patriots): OUT – Hamstring
• Chris Godwin Jr., WR (Buccaneers): OUT – Fibula
• Mike Evans, WR (Buccaneers): OUT – Season-ending collarbone
• Bucky Irving, RB (Buccaneers): OUT – Foot/Shoulder
• Haason Reddick, OLB (Buccaneers): OUT – Ankle/Knee

Both teams are decimated. Tampa Bay’s injury list reads like a hospital ward, with their top two receivers and lead running back all out.

Browns at Jets

• Isaiah Bond, WR (Browns): OUT – Foot
• Garrett Wilson, WR (Jets): QUESTIONABLE – Knee (expected to play)

Wilson practiced fully Friday after being limited earlier in the week. He should be good to go for the Jets.

Giants at Bears

• Graham Gano, K (Giants): OUT – Neck
• John Michael Schmitz, C (Giants): OUT – Shin
• T.J. Edwards, LB (Bears): OUT – Hand/Hamstring
• D’Andre Swift, RB (Bears): QUESTIONABLE – Groin

Swift didn’t practice Friday after being limited Wednesday and full Thursday. His status needs monitoring. The Giants kicking game remains a mess without Gano.

Cardinals at Seahawks

• Kyler Murray, QB (Cardinals): OUT – Placed on IR (foot)
• Cooper Kupp, WR (Seahawks): QUESTIONABLE – Hamstring/Heel
• Tory Horton, WR (Seahawks): DOUBTFUL – Groin/Shin

Murray’s on IR, missing at least four games. Jacoby Brissett gets his third straight start. Kupp practiced fully Friday and should play after missing time.

Lions at Commanders

• Jayden Daniels, QB (Commanders): OUT – Elbow (no surgery needed)
• Terry McLaurin, WR (Commanders): OUT – Quad
• Kerby Joseph, S (Lions): OUT – Knee
• Taylor Decker, OT (Lions): QUESTIONABLE – Shoulder

Daniels won’t need surgery on his elbow but remains out. Marcus Mariota starts again. Washington also loses their top receiver McLaurin.

Rams at 49ers

• Brock Purdy, QB (49ers): QUESTIONABLE – Toe (Mac Jones will start)
• Mykel Williams, DE (49ers): OUT – Season-ending ACL
• Ricky Pearsall, WR (49ers): OUT – Knee

Mac Jones gets his eighth start this season. The 49ers’ first-round pick Williams is done for the year with a torn ACL.

Steelers at Chargers

• Scotty Miller, WR (Steelers): OUT – Finger
• Jabrill Peppers, S (Steelers): OUT – Quad
• Cole Holcomb, LB (Steelers): OUT – Illness
• Isaac Seumalo, G (Steelers): OUT – Pec
• Tarheeb Still, CB (Chargers): DOUBTFUL – Knee

Pittsburgh’s dealing with depth issues but their core players remain healthy. The Chargers secondary takes a hit if Still can’t go.

Eagles at Packers (MNF)

• Cam Jurgens, OL (Eagles): OUT – Knee
• Nate Hobbs, CB (Packers): OUT – Knee
• Lukas Van Ness, DL (Packers): OUT – Foot
• Matthew Golden, WR (Packers): QUESTIONABLE – Shoulder (didn’t practice Friday/Saturday)

Saquon Barkley (groin) and A.J. Brown (hamstring) both have no designation and are good to go for Philadelphia. Golden’s status bears watching for Green Bay after missing both Friday and Saturday practices.

Weather Impacting Week 10 NFL Games

November football means dealing with the elements, and Week 10 brings some challenging conditions that could impact scoring and game plans.

Browns at Jets: 41% chance of definite rain with temperatures at 59°F. The wet conditions could make this already low-scoring matchup even uglier. Both teams will lean on the run game.

Cardinals at Seahawks: 66% chance of rain at 61°F. Seattle’s used to playing in these conditions. Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals passing game could struggle in the wet weather.

Giants at Bears: Most interesting weather of the week with 36°F temperatures, 13% chance of snow showers, and 16 mph winds. This could turn into an old-school NFC slugfest. Consider the under.

Eagles at Packers (MNF): Brutal 27°F temperatures with mostly cloudy skies. This is the coldest game of the week. Saquon Barkley and the run games will be crucial. Cold hands make for dropped passes.

Ravens at Vikings: Another cold one at 31°F with mostly cloudy conditions. These teams are built for this weather though.

Bills at Dolphins: The warmest game at 85°F with an 11% chance of thunderstorms. Buffalo’s used to the cold, so the Miami heat could be a factor.

The remaining games feature manageable conditions. Patriots-Bucs will be 82°F and partly cloudy in Tampa, but the weather isn’t why we’re targeting the Under. Check out our NFL odds page for the latest lines on all Week 10 matchups.