Jets vs Patriots Week 11 Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday Night Football

• The red-hot New England Patriots host the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football in Week 11
• The Patriots are riding an NFL-best seven-game win streak
• See the top Jets vs Patriots picks and predictions, plus the latest NYJ/NEP odds and betting lines

It’s worst-vs-first on Thursday Night Football when the AFC East-leading New England Patriots (8-2, 3-2 home, 7-3 ATS, 6-4 O/U) host the basement-dwelling New York Jets (2-7, 1-2 away, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U). This divisional clash kicks off at 8:15 pm ET at Gillette Stadium on Nov. 13.

I have dissected the odds and line movement, compared the statistical mismatches, and my three favorite Jets vs Patriots picks for TNF.

Jets vs Patriots Expert Picks

NYJ vs NE ATS Pick: Patriots -12.5 (-115) at DraftKings

The betting market has delivered a resounding verdict on this AFC East rivalry. After opening with New England as 10.5-point home favorites, relentless action has pushed the Patriots to -12.5. This line movement tells the story of a statistical mismatch that becomes more pronounced under deeper analysis.

New England’s offensive efficiency stands in stark contrast to the Jets’ struggles. The Patriots generate 25.9 points per game behind a balanced attack that produces 359.1 total yards. Their situational excellence shines through 42.0% third-down conversions and 57.1% red-zone touchdown efficiency. Meanwhile, the Jets offense has been an exercise in futility, managing just 20.3 points per game and a league-worst 285.6 YPG.

The Patriots are also a top-ten team in terms of O-DVOA, while the Jets are a lowly 29th.

The Jets’ offensive limitations, combined with their turnover propensity, create a scenario where New England can build and maintain a substantial lead. Divisional games can be unpredictable, but the statistical disparity here is too significant to ignore.

Key Statistical Comparison

Jets vs Patriots Game-Total Pick: Over 42.5 (-118) at Underdog

Despite the Jets’ offensive struggles, the Patriots possess enough firepower to push this total over single-handedly. New England’s ability to create short fields through turnovers should generate multiple scoring opportunities, while even a modest Jets contribution could push this contest over the number.

Oddsmakers have been underestimating the scoring in Jets games all season, as well. New York is 6-3 O/U heading into Week 11. Only two teams – Cincinnati and Minnesota (both 7-2) – have hit the over at a higher rate.

The Pats are a profitable 6-4 O/U.

Best Jets/Patriots Player Prop: Hall Under 60.5 Rush Yards (-125) at Fanatics

Game script represents the primary concern here. As substantial underdogs, the Jets will likely face negative game script early, forcing them away from their ground-and-pound identity. Hall’s opportunities become limited when trailing by multiple scores, particularly against a Patriots defense that ranks top-ten in rushing yards allowed per game..

New York Jets vs New England Patriots Odds

As of late Wednesday night, the best Patriots moneyline has moved to a hyper-short -800 (BetMGM), a sizable move from the opening number of -700. The longest NYJ moneyline has grown to +590 (FanDuel) from the opening line .

The spread ranges a full point from Patriots -12.5 (FanDuel) to -13.5 (DraftKings).

There is only a half-point range in the game total, with Caesars offering the number at 43.0 (Ov -107) and DraftKings at 43.5 (Un -112).

Jets vs Patriots Public-Betting Splits: Sharp Money Speaks

The NFL public splits have rendered a decisive verdict on this AFC East rivalry, with overwhelming support flowing toward the favored Patriots across multiple markets. Current handle distribution reveals where both recreational and professional money is landing.

Handle Distribution:

• Moneyline: 79.08% backing Patriots outright victory
• Spread: 65.34% supporting Patriots -12.5
• Total: 58.88% on Under 43.5

A notable sharp versus public divergence emerges in the totals market. While 50.43% of tickets favor the Over, 58.88% of actual dollars support the Under. This classic betting pattern suggests larger, more sophisticated wagers are anticipating a lower-scoring affair, potentially driven by the Jets’ offensive limitations or defensive game script considerations.

Our expert recommendations align with public sentiment on the spread but diverge on the total. While we’re backing the Patriots to cover the substantial number, our Over play goes against the sharp money flow, suggesting potential value in betting against the defensive-minded big money.