Troy vs Old Dominion Prediction, Line & Pick for Thursday CFB

• Old Dominion is an 11-point favorite over Troy in Sun Belt action on Thursday
• The Monarchs are 21st in total offense and 12th in yards per play
• See below for my Troy vs Old Dominion prediction, plus the betting line and my pick for Thursday CFB

On paper, it seems that Troy (6-3, 4-1 Sun Belt) vs Old Dominion (6-3, 3-2 Sun Belt) is a battle between two evenly matched football teams. They boast identical winning records and have both tasted success in conference play. So why is it then that the Monarchs are huge home favorites in the college football odds? To be blunt, online sportsbooks believe the Trojans are fool’s gold, and frankly, so do I. The question is, can Old Dominion prove it?

Kickoff for this Sun Belt showdown is scheduled for Thursday at 7:30 pm ET from S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, VA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Troy vs Old Dominion prediction and pick, plus the latest betting lines.

Troy vs Old Dominion Prediction and Pick

The most glaring difference between these two programs is on offense. The Monarchs are an extremely efficient group, ranking 21st in yards per game and 12th in yards per play. If the game were played in the 20’s, they might average 35+ points per outing, but unfortunately, you need to be able to score in the red zone. Old Dominion is 126th in red zone scoring rate and has battled serious turnover woes all season.

The giveaway issues start with QB Colton Joseph. The sophomore has thrown nine picks in nine starts, while the Monarchs average two fumbles per game. Joseph has also struggled with his accuracy, completing only 61.7% of his passes and throwing nearly as many interceptions (5) as touchdowns (7) over his last four starts.

Fortunately for ODU, they should be able to pound the rock in this matchup. The Monarchs are top-25 in rushing yards per game and yards per carry, and feature a stable of ball carriers. Joseph leads the bunch with 620 rushing yards and 9 TD, but any one of their four primary rushers could pop off for a big game versus a vulnerable Trojans run defense.

Troy is 97th in rushing yards allowed per contest and 78th in run defense grade per PFF. They allow fewer yards in pass defense, but it’s important to note opponents don’t normally air it out against them. Only 11 teams in the nation have been passed on less frequently than the Trojans, but that doesn’t mean they’re a shut-down pass defense.

Take their last game as a prime example. They surrendered 247 passing yards to Arkansas State, allowing Jaylen Raynor to complete 73% of his throws.

Troy Defensive Stats

Offensively, Troy isn’t in the same tier as ODU. The Trojans average 128 fewer yards per game and over 2 yards less per play. QB Tucker Kilcrease has gone back-to-back games without throwing a touchdown, while absorbing 12 sacks during that stretch. As for their rushing attack, it’s non-existent. Troy averages 2.9 yards per carry and ranks 123rd in rushing yards per game.

The Monarchs’ defense, meanwhile, is very strong against the pass. They yield just 6.8 yards per throw and 205 passing yards per contest. Old Dominion has the 13th highest sack in the country, and force 1.8 giveaways per game, the 24th best mark in college football.

Statistically, this matchup is one-sided, but what tips the scales even further in the Monarchs’ favor is the strength of schedule metrics. ODU has faced the 55th hardest schedule in the nation, including a date with CFP odds contender Indiana, whom they hung tough with.

Troy, on the other hand, has played only two teams ranked inside the top-93. They lost those contests by a combined 33 points, and I expect a convincing win for the Monarchs in my Troy vs Old Dominion picks. ODU is a perfect 6-0 at home this season, with five wins by 14 or more points.

Troy vs Old Dominion Line

The best book to bet the Monarchs against the spread right now is Bet365. They’re hanging an Old Dominion -11 at -110 odds, while most other commercial books have moved the line to -12 and even -12.5. The total currently sits at 52.5, which feels high given the Trojans’ offensive struggles.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. RG Line: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY). Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA (select parishes)/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $200

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Odds as of Nov. 12. New customers can claim the Bet365 promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.

Per the college football public betting trends, the over/under tickets are split down the middle as of Wednesday night, but the under is garnering 70% of the total handle.