MLS Western Conference Offering Value After Week of Upsets

• It was a week of upsets in the MLS Cup Playoffs, which sees everything up for grabs in the Western Conference
• Will RSL pull another upset and beat top-seeded Sporting KC?
• Can the winner of one of the league’s best rivalries make a run at MLS Cup?

Take a look at the favorites to win the MLS Cup, and you’ll have to go a few places down to find your first Western Conference club.

While the powerhouse clubs look to reside in the East, the West’s parity saw both underdogs win on the road in their Knockout Round matches earlier this week.

Coming into the playoffs only five of 20 Knockout matches saw upsets since the format was adopted.

Average 2018 MLS Cup Odds

With their wins, the Portland Timbers’ average MLS Cup odds have shortened from +1600 to +1200, while Real Salt Lake’s have been trimmed from +2500 to +1200.

Odds To Win MLS Cup

Real Salt Lake Take On Top Seed

The team no one expected to even make the playoffs just upset the West’s third seed and highest-scoring team.

RSL had only one win in their final six matches and would have been eliminated had the LA Galaxy not blown a 2-0 lead at home to Houston on Decision Day.

RSL had average odds of +4000 to win MLS Cup on October 15, and even after qualifying they still entered the playoffs with +2500 odds.

Movin' on in the @Audi #MLSCupPlayoffs.

See how @realsaltlake made it to the Western Conference Semifinals. https://t.co/fxcr7JOfoP

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) November 2, 2018

RSL may not have necessarily been the better team on Thursday in Los Angeles, but they were the winning team. They held only 37% possession and were outshot 20-4, with only two on goal compared to LAFC’s eight.

But RSL used their experience over the LA expansion squad and capitalized on their chances.

Damir Kreilach scored in each half before a Walker Zimmerman own goal in the 69′ minute proved to be the winner.

2018 was a season of highs and lows. @danielsalloi thinks that's what makes #SportingKC battle ready. #MLSCupPlayoffs

📰 » https://t.co/96RYwcdaLR pic.twitter.com/bTQGO2S3Oc

— Sporting Kansas City (@SportingKC) November 2, 2018

They’ll now take on a Sporting Kansas City side that finished tops in the West with 65 points.

SKC allowed the second-fewest goals in the conference and league by only conceding 40. That ranks only behind fellow Western side Seattle’s 37.

SKC had a solid second half to the season and have only lost twice since July 28.

Those are also the only matches they’ve allowed two goals or more. The two clubs split three meetings this season going 1-1-1 with two matches in MLS and one during the US Open Cup.

Cascadia Rivalry Renewed

Sunday will mark the 103rd all-time match between these two rivals (Portland and Seattle).

They met on three occasions this season with the Timbers holding an edge by winning twice. The Sounders won the most recent match on the road, 1-0 on August 26.

While Seattle had a bye through the Knockout Round, Portland traveled to Frisco midweek and came away with a 2-1 win over FC Dallas. The Timbers were led through a brace by Diego Valeri and didn’t allow Dallas to score until the 94′ minute.

Came. Saw. Scored. Scored again. Conquered.#OnwardRoseCity #RCTID @Audi #MLSCupPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/v44YpcO4fo

— Portland Timbers (@TimbersFC) November 2, 2018

The win came despite Portland being shown a red card in the 58′ minute, being outshot 22-5, and holding only 34.4% possession. Larrys Mabiala’ suspension could be crucial as the Timbers lost all three matches without the defender this season.

The Sounders had the highest PPG over the second half of the season in league history and won 14 of their last 16 matches. The one caveat to that could be a question of how hard they’ve been tested.

In their last eight games they played exactly one playoff team. The result? A 1-0 home loss to Philadelphia.

The West’s Final Four

Who Emerges From the West?

I’ve been talking about Seattle as a great value play when they had average odds of +1400 and earlier as well at +1600, while predicting the Galaxy would fall short of the playoffs.

Advancing from the Cascadia rivalry won’t be easy.

Sunday's gonna be fun. // @Audi #MLSCupPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/qOx4refDMx

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) November 2, 2018

But should they face SKC in the West Final, they will be confident knowing they drew 2-2 on the road and won 3-1 at home to SKC this season. Seattle rides the momentum to MLS Cup where anything can happen.