Bill to Ban Certain Prediction Markets Sent to Minnesota Senate Floor

• The Minnesota Senate Finance Committee moved a prediction market banning bill forward to the Senate floor
• Sen. John Marty’s (DFL-40) bill, SF 4511, prohibits prediction market contracts based on sports, politics, war, weather, and other markets
• The approval came on the same week a Minnesota political candidate was found trading prediction market contracts on his own campaign

The Minnesota Senate Finance Committee moved a prediction market banning bill forward to the Senate floor on the same week a Minnesota political candidate was found trading prediction market contracts on his own campaign.

The Senate Finance Committee unanimously moved Sen. John Marty’s (DFL-40) bill, SF 4511, which prohibits prediction market contracts based on sports, politics, war, weather, and other controversial markets, to the Senate floor.

The decision came just days after Kalshi fined a candidate in the Democratic Primary for Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District for making trades on his own campaign.

Bill Bans Certain Prediction Market Contracts

Marty’s bill, SF 4511, was recommended to pass by the Senate Finance Committee and referred to the full Senate. The legislation prohibits prediction market contracts centered around the following types of markets:

• Whether a person will make a particular statement
• An athletic event or game of skill
• Any game played with cards, dice, equipment, or any mechanical or electronic device or machine
• War, state or national emergencies, natural or human-made disasters, mass shooting, acts of terrorism, or public health crises
• Federal, state, or local elections
• Legal actions, including but not limited to a civil or criminal suit, grand jury action, jury trial, settlement, plea, or conviction
• Weather
• Death, assassination, or attempted killings
• Events in popular culture, including but not limited to awards and the date a piece of entertainment will be released

The bill will go into effect on Aug. 1, 2026, if signed into law. It was

Minnesota Candidate Trades on Own Campaign

The legislation moved forward in the same week prediction market company Kalshi identified three political candidates, one from Minnesota, who purchased event contracts based on their own political campaigns.

Marty’s proposed legislation will prohibit these types of contracts to be offered by prediction markets in Minnesota.

Kalshi’s engineering solutions alerted the company to a candidate in the Democratic Primary for Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District who had traded a small amount on the outcome of his own election. The company confirmed the trader was the same as the candidate, who was then alerted to the rule violation.

As part of the settlement, the candidate acknowledged his trading activity violated Kalshi exchange rules, agreed to pay a fine of $539.85, and will serve a suspension from Kalshi for five years.

The second infraction occurred in the Republican Primary for the Texas 21st Congressional District. The candidate was identified in the same way as the Minnesota candidate. After being pre-emptively blocked by the company, an investigation occurred and the candidate agreed to settle. The candidate acknowledged the rule violation, paid a fine of $784.20, and agreed to a five-year suspension.

The third infraction occurred in the Democratic Primary for Virginia’s U.S. Senate election. The candidate traded in two markets related to his campaign. The first a market on individuals who would run for public office in 2026. After announcing his candidacy, the individual again traded on his own candidacy.

The candidate acknowledged violating the rules, according to Kalshi, but then stopped communication with the company and did not comply with requests to respond or settle the matter. Kalshi fined the candidate $6,229.30 and suspended him for five years.