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Alliance of American Football Week 6 Odds & Picks – Take the Points With Commanders

Logan Woodside San Antonio Commanders QB
Logan Woodside's San Antonio Commanders lead the West through five weeks and head to Atlanta in Week 6. Photo from @KENS5 (Twitter)
  • The Orlando Apollos reached midway point of the inaugural AAF season 5-0
  • Orlando QB Garrett Gilbert leads the AAF in passing yardage
  • The Apollos’ average margin of victory is 14.4 points

Are the Orlando Apollos going to put themselves in the class of another famous Florida football team, the 1972 Miami Dolphins?

Halfway through the initial Alliance of American Football season, the Apollos are 5-0.

In the 1972 NFL season, the Dolphins went 17-0 including playoffs, beating the Washington Redskins 14-7 in Super Bowl 7.

Let’s check the odds at BetOnline as the AAF moves into the second half of the regular season in Week 6.

Memphis Express vs Salt Lake Stallions Odds

Teams Moneyline Spread Total at Bovada
Memphis Express +230 +7.5 (-110) O 40 (-110)
Salt Lake Stallions -300 -7.5 (-110) U 40 (-110)

*All odds taken 3/14

Kickoff: Sat, Mar 16 at 4pm EST

The Battle For The Bottom

Coming off their first win of the season, the Memphis Express fell 23-20 to the Atlanta Legends in the final minute of play in Week 5. The Stallions also had their hearts broken last week, losing 27-25 to the San Diego Fleet on a field goal as time ran out.

The Express share the worst record in the AAF with the Stallions at 1-4. They suffered a 26-0 season-opening loss to the Birmingham Fire.

But they’ve been in every other defeat. The Express lost their other three games by a combined total of nine points, including a 21-17 loss to unbeaten Orlando.

On the other hand, the Express have gained the fewest yards (1,225, 239 yards per game) of any AAF offense and only the Legends (67) have scored fewer points than Memphis (81, 16.2 points per game).

Express quarterbacks have tossed more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes (three). That being said, current starter Zach Mettenberger has thrown for three TDs and only one INT.

Memphis owns the league’s worst third-down conversion rate (26.1%, 17-65). On defense, the Express surrender 358.6 yards per game, last in the AAF.

Since a Week 3 win over Arizona, Salt Lake has lost to Orlando and San Diego. But with a five-point swing, the Stallions could be 3-2 right now.

Salt Lake runs the ball well. QB Josh Woodrum has performed solidly and the Stallions’ defensive front is abominable.

Defensive end Karter Schult leads the AAF with five sacks and 33 QB hurries.

Pick: Stallions -7.5, Over 40

Arizona Hotshots vs Orlando Apollos Odds

Teams Moneyline Spread Total at Bovada
Arizona Hotshots +285 +9.5 (-110) O 44 (-110)
Orlando Apollos -400 -9.5 (-110) U 44 (-110)

Kickoff: Sat, Mar 16 at 8pm EST

Contender vs Pretender?

At the start of the AAF season, the Arizona Hotshots were pegged as the team to beat for the league title. But three straight losses have the Hotshots limping into Orlando with a 2-3 slate.

Apollos QB Garrett Gilbert (1,357) leads the AAF in passing yards, just ahead of Hotshots QB John Wolford (1,026). Wolford and Gilbert are also 1-2 in TD passes, with Wolford holding a 10-8 edge.

Orlando’s Charles Johnson (493) leads in receiving yardage, followed by Arizona’s Rashad Ross (401). But Ross owns a league-leading six TD catches. Johnson and teammate Jalin Marshall are among five receivers tied for second with two TDs.

The Hotshots are a hot mess right, losing three straight. But they can put up points.

Arizona’s 21.8 per game average is third overall. Orlando (29.8) leads in that category. The Apollos (402.0) and Hotshots (346.3) are 1-2 in total offense.

Pick: Apollos -9.5, Over 44

San Antonio Commanders vs Atlanta Legends Odds

Teams Moneyline Spread Total at Bovada
San Antonio Commanders +100 +1.5 (-110) O 40 (-110)
Atlanta Legends -125 -1.5 (-110) U 40 (-110)

Kickoff: Sun, Mar 17 at 4pm EST

Two Teams On The Rebound

The 3-2 Commanders find themselves atop the West Division via tiebreaker. The Legends have won two in a row.

The AAF’s two best ball-control offenses clash. The Commanders lead in time of possession (33:43), followed by the Legends (32:09). San Antonio (44.7, 34-76) and Atlanta (41.4, 29-70) are also 1-2 in third-down conversions.

Quietly, the Legends have become the league’s best defense, allowing just  287.4 yards per game. Atlanta is 2-0 since inserting Aaron Murray as the starting QB.

Commanders RB Kenneth Farrow leads the AAF with 305 rushing yards. De’Vaunte Bausby shares the lead in interceptions (three) and Jayrone Elliott (4.5) is second in sacks.

Pick: Commanders +1.5, Under 40

Birmingham Iron vs San Diego Fleet Odds

Teams Moneyline Spread Total at Bovada
Birmingham Iron +175 +5.5 (-110) O 35.5 (-110)
San Diego Fleet -220 -5.5 (-110) U 35.5 (-110)

Kickoff: Sun, Mar 17 at 8pm EST

Trent Richardson doesn’t find many yards, but he certainly finds the important yards.

The Iron running back shows 181 yards on 75 carries, a 2.4 per carry average. But he’s the AAF’s runaway leader with eight rushing TDs.

Birmingham (3-2) has lost two in a row and plays four of the last five games on the road.

The 3-2 Fleet share top spot in the West with San Antonio and won 27-25 over Salt Lake last week on a final-play 44-yard field goal from Donny Hagerman.

Fleet RB Ja’Quan Gardner is second in rushing (290 yards) and third in rushing TDs (three).

Pick: Fleet -5.5, Under 35.5

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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.