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Mayweather vs Pacquiao 2 Odds: Floyd Opens as the Heavy Favorite

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Boxing

Sep 18, 2018 · 10:22 AM PDT

Mayweather and Pacquiao square off for the first time. Are they ready for a rematch?
Are Mayweather and Pacquiao ready for a rematch? Photo by Fahad Amin (flickr) CC License.
  • Mayweather vs Pacquiao was the biggest fight of all time
  • The two fighters met in Tokyo and discussed the possibility of a rematch. Mayweather has suggested a December fight
  • A fight could be announced as soon as next week — or perhaps it’s all just talk

If we learned anything from Mayweather vs Pacquiao, it’s that the fight happened way too late. By the time the two future Hall of Famers faced inside the ring, they were both nearing 40 and past their physical prime. Pacquiao in particular had suffered a life-altering KO against Juan Manuel Márquez a few years prior and was a shell of his former self. The result was a 12-round snooze-fest that resulted in a win for Mayweather and a loss for anyone who paid to watch.

So why on earth would there be a sequel? Well, Mayweather and Pacquiao have a couple hundred million reasons to want a rematch. The two were recently seen entertaining the idea of a second fight at a Tokyo music festival. Mayweather promotes himself and Pacquiao is now a free agent, so boxing politics can’t derail the fight. If both fighters want a rematch, they can have a contract signed by the end of the week.

Mayweather vs Pacquiao Odds

Who will win Mayweather vs Pacquiao 2? Odds
Floyd Mayweather Jr -230
Manny Pacquiao +180

Let’s take a look at the career trajectories of Floyd Mayweather (50-0, 27 KOs) and Manny Pacquiao (60-7-2, 39 KOs) since their fateful fight.

After dispatching Pacquiao in 2015, Mayweather cruised to another comfortable victory against Andre Berto. Then, coming out of retirement, he took on Conor McGregor for a low risk, high reward spectacle. Money May remained true to his namesake while never putting his unbeaten record in jeopardy.

Pacquiao’s career following the Mayweather fight hasn’t been as easy. He defeated Tim Bradley in a rubber match to capture the lineal welterweight title, and then reclaimed the WBO title by beating Jessie Vargas in a lopsided fight. But then he lost it all to the little-known Jeff Horn in Australia.

He managed to roll back the years in his most recent fight against Lucas Matthysse, stopping an opponent for the first time in over eight years. Pac-Man was light on his feet, quick with his hands, and clinical with his timing. It was reminiscent of the Pacquiao of yesteryear, but it was all against a 35-year-old Lucas Matthysse who really only wanted a career payday before hanging up the gloves.

Tale of the Tape

Floyd mayweather
VS
Manny Pacquiao

 

50-0, 27 KOs Record 60-7-2, 39 KOs
5’8” Height 5’5.5″
72″ Reach 67″
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
February 24, 1977 (age 41) DOB December 17, 1978 (age 39)

The first fight ended with Pacquiao landing only 81 punches to Mayweather’s 148. The Filipino connected with just 19% of his punches, while Mayweather found far more success with 34%. Mayweather landed more jabs and was more accurate with his jabs, and landed more power punches and was more accurate with his power punches. By almost every conceivable metric, he came out on top. The scorecard reflected as much: 118-110, 116-112, 116-112.

Pacquiao attributed his poor performance to a shoulder injury he sustained during training. However, it’s unclear how much the injury affected the fight, if at all. Mayweather was far too slick for Manny and was able to read him like a book.

If the fight goes ahead, it should be another slow-paced uneventful affair that results in another win for Mayweather.

If you thought the first fight was boring, then don’t bother with the rematch. Mayweather is 41 and Pacquaio is 39, that’s a recipe for a terrible fight. Both fighters are far from their best but Pacquiao is by far the more diminished fighter. Mayweather’s boxing style is tailor made for longevity and he’s sustained very little damage over the years. The same absolutely can’t be said for Pacquiao.

If the fight goes ahead, it should be another slow-paced uneventful affair that results in another win for Mayweather.

Pick: Floyd Mayweather (-230)

Method of Victory Odds

Method of Victory Odds
Mayweather by KO, TKO, or DQ +450
Mayweather by Decision -135
Pacquiao by KO, TKO, or DQ +475
Pacquiao by Decision +400
Draw +900

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Will the Fight Go the Distance? Odds
Yes -260
No +200

Pacquiao stopped Matthysse in his last fight, which was a stunning turn of events. The last time Manny stopped a fight was in 2009 against Miguel Cotto. Mayweather stopped McGregor in his last fight, but we have to go all the way back to the Victor Ortiz fight in 2011 to find the next stoppage. That KO occurred under strange circumstances, so his last real Ko was against Ricky Hatton in 2007. So it’s fair to say that it’s extremely likely that the fight will go the distance.

You won’t find better value than Mayweather by Decision at -135. The undefeated five-weight champ had the upper-hand in 2015, and the rematch is even more skewed in his favor.

Pick: Mayweather by Decision (-135)

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