Iowa vs Iowa State Picks and Odds (Dec. 9)

• Iowa is a 3.5-point favorite against Iowa State on Thursday
• Iowa has won the last three in the series
• Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

No. 17 Iowa State (8-0) is a 3.5-point home underdog to Iowa in the Cy-Hawk Series Showdown at 9 pm ET Thursday on ESPN2 in the 75th meeting of the schools that are 129 miles apart. They have played every year since 1970.

Iowa (7-2) has won the last three in the series and broke an eight-game losing steak in Ames with an 84-68 victory in 2019. The Hawkeyes are 5-4 straight up and 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine in the series and are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six.

Iowa vs Iowa State Odds

Odds from FanDuel on Dec. 8.

Iowa will finish a testing four-game stretch in Ames on Wednesday. The Hawkeyes won at Virginia 75-74  on Joe Toussaint’s short jumper in the final seconds in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge on Nov. 29 but have since lost 77-70 at Purdue and 87-83 at home Illinois in the first two games of the Big Ten season.

Iowa is No. 9 in the initial NCAA rankings released Monday. Iowa State is No. 20.

Keegan Murray Returns

Iowa leading scorer 6’8 forward Keegan Murray is expected to be at full strength after missing the Purdue game and feeling less than whole in the loss to Illinois because of a sprained right ankle suffered against Virginia.

Murray, who leads NCAA Division I with a 23.9 scoring average, had 19 points on 7 of 15 shooting against the Illini and told reporters afterward that he did not “get his mojo going” until the second half. He had 12 of his points in the final three minutes.

Murray had three steals and two blocked shots against thebut had only two rebounds, well under his 8.0 average, as the Hawkeyes were out-rebounded 47-19. Purdue out-rebounded the Hawkeyes 40-29 when twin brother Kris Murray started while Keegan was out.

Iowa State starts a four-guard group alongside big man 6’10 George Conditt, and 6’4 senior guard Izaiah Brockington could draw the assignment on Keegan Murray. Brockington leads the Cyclones in scoring (16.0) and rebounding (7.5).

Brockington, a graduate transfer from Penn State this season after beginning his career at St. Bonaventure, had 23 points in a xx-xx victory over Iowa on Jan. 4, 2020. He had 11 points in two games against the Hawkeyes since. He is one of seven transfers on the team.

Iowa is fifth in NCAA Division I with a 90.1 scoring average.

When Trends Collide

Iowa and Iowa State are on opposite ends of the turnover spectrum coming in. Iowa ranks first in NCAA Division I in fewest turnovers per game (7.9) turnovers and also leads with a 2.25:1 turnover ratio. The Hawkeyes are fourth in turnover margin at plus-8.2 per game.

Iowa State is eighth in turnovers forced per game at 19.4 and is tied for 13th with a plus-5.6 turnover margin. The plan is to speed opponents up in the half-court and take advantage of mistakes with fun

IOWA STATE BASKETBALL IS BACK! https://t.co/NQJyNHroxa

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Hawkeyes backup point guard 6’2 Ahron Ulis has been the most steady. He had no turnovers in 55 minutes against Virginia, Purdue and Illinois, with 10 assists and three steals. Ulis was on the floor during Iowa’s late comeback against Illinois when starters Jordan  Bohannon and Toussaint remained on the bench.

Bohannan, whose role has shifted from point to shooting guard this season, had 20 points and six 3-pointers against the Virginia zone but that is the only time he has scored more than five points in the last five.

Changing the Culture

After winning two games last season, Iowa State is off to an 8-0 start under first-year coach T.J. Otzelberger, its best start since the 2015-16 team was 9-0.

https://youtu.be/nnFTwCu4OPo

The Cyclones won at Creighton 64-58 their last time out, their first road victory since Feb. 16, 2019, a stretch of 25 games. They have beaten four high-majors and have double-digit wins over Xavier and Memphis while winning the  NIT Season Tip-Off championship in Brooklyn.

Iowa State is limiting opponents to 60.1 points and and 39.3 percent shooting from the field, 26.5 percent behind the arc . Guard Gabe Kalscheur (12.1) and Tyrese Gibson (11.6) are double-digit scorers. Kalscheur had 30 in the 78-59 rout of then-No. 9 Memphis.

By the Numbers

Iowa is 6-3 ATS, losing as a 3.5-point home favorite to Illinois in their last game. Iowa State is 5-3 ATS. Iowa is No. 21 in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, fifth in offense and 96th in defense. Iowa State is 66th in KenPom efficiency.

The numbers suggest Iowa State. The trend says Iowa, which also has played a more challenging schedule in a game that means a lot to both..

The pick: Iowa -3.5 (-110)