North Carolina vs Florida State Odds, Lines & Picks (Feb. 27)

• The North Carolina Tar Heels match up with the Florida State Seminoles on Monday, February 27th
• North Carolina is coming off their first quad one win of the season against Virginia
• Below, you can see all the North Carolina vs Florida State odds as well as our best bet and pick

Just when you think they were out, they pull back in. One of college basketball’s most storied programs still has a chance to salvage a disastrous season when the North Carolina Tar Heels (18-11, 9-19-1 ATS) close out their road schedule with a test against the Florida State Seminoles (9-20, 12-17 ATS) on Monday, February 27th.

The Tar Heels are coming off their first quad one win, having just defeated the Virginia Cavaliers 71-63. That victory is on the heels of a 2nd half comeback win over Notre Dame as it appears Hubert Davis’ squad has finally realized that one more loss will likely keep them out of the big dance a year after appearing in the final.

Tipoff for North Carolina vs Florida State is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET from the Donald L. Tucker Center in a game that will be broadcast on ESPN. Check out the North Carolina vs Florida State odds below.

North Carolina vs Florida State Odds

Facing a squad with the second-worst overall record in the ACC, the Tar Heels are 8.5-point favorites to dispose of the Seminoles on Monday evening. In their last nine games, Florida State has fallen below the betting total just once. The over/under for this one is pegged at a rather high 152.5 points.

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Odds as of February 26th from FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code. 

Florida State Seminoles Coming Off Huge Win

As February comes to a close, the Seminoles can keep their heads high following their most impressive win of the season. On Saturday, Florida State mounted a momentous 25-point comeback against 13th ranked Miami winning the game on a Matthew Cleveland buzzer beater.

The Seminoles outscored the Hurricanes, who are a considered a contender in the odds to win March Madness, 54-30 in the 2nd half, dealing Miami their only home loss of the season.

Matt did THAT 🫡#NewBlood | @MCleveland35 pic.twitter.com/ALbtXRcNav

— Florida State Men’s Basketball (@FSUHoops) February 26, 2023

What that game showed is that you shouldn’t count out the FSU offense. Although they are shaky defending, ranking 245th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom, their scoring is capable of keeping them in every game. Four players on the Seminoles average at least 10 points per contest.

Overall, they have gone over the total in 17 of 29 games this season, but have exceeded the betting line in four straight.

North Carolina Tar Heels Fighting for March Madness Spot

Simply put, for North Carolina to still have a chance of gaining entry into the NCAA tournament, they will need a win against Florida State. If they suffer a loss, they can kiss their March Madness opportunities goodbye unless they claim the ACC tournament title.

The UNC basketball program is still the last team out in Joe Lunardi’s updated Bracketology. https://t.co/t1DkOTvwQo

— Tar Heels Wire (@tarheelswire) February 26, 2023

The Tar Heels have been one of the worst cover bets in the college basketball odds this year, with a 9-19-1 record against the spread. Particularly concerning as they get set for a 7:00 pm ET matchup with a Seminoles side that sports a 9-20 mark, is a 2-14 ATS record in night games.

Shooting from beyond the arc may be one of the keys to North Carolina success in this game. Florida State is one of the worst teams in the country at defending the three ball, ranking in the bottom 10% of all Division I teams in that category according to KenPom.

North Carolina ranks a lowly 304th overall in three point percentage, hitting just 30.4% of their attempts, but rode a 10-for-22 mark to a huge upset over Virginia in their last contest.

North Carolina vs Florida State Prediction

Somewhat surprisingly, the Seminoles have had the better of the Tar Heels in their most recent matchups, taking five of the last seven head-to-head meetings between the two.

North Carolina vs Florida State Recent Results

This will be the first and only meeting between these two teams this season, barring a matchup in the ACC tournament that begins next week.

Literally, North Carolina can’t afford to lose this game, so despite an unbelievable victory for the Seminoles in their last game, we don’t see them starting a mini-streak with another W in this matchup.

However, it’s unlikely the Tar Heels blow out their opponents. Owning a horrible 1-9 ATS record as the road team this year, our prediction is that the Seminoles keep it close enough to cover in the North Carolina vs Florida State odds.

Pick: Florida State Seminoles +8.5 (-120)