Purdue vs Illinois Predictions, Player Props & Odds on March 5

• The #3 Purdue Boilermakers travel to Champaign to face the #12 Illinois Fighting Illini on Tuesday
• Purdue can clinch a second straight outright Big Ten regular-season title with a win
• See the Purdue vs Illinois predictions, odds, and player props for March 5

The two top teams in the Big Ten square off on Tuesday as the #3 Purdue Boilermakers (26-3, 13-5 Big Ten, 6-3 away, 15-12-2 ATS) meet the #12 Illinois Fighting Illini (22-7, 13-5 Big Ten, 15-2 home, 15-11-3 ATS) at the State Farm Center in Champaign, IL.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET on Peacock and Illinois is listed as a slight home favorite.

Purdue vs Illinois Odds

Illinois is a 2.5-point favorite in Tuesday’s college basketball odds and -138 on the moneyline. Purdue comes back at +115 to win straight-up while the total is at a massive 163.5.

Odds as of March 5 at BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM North Carolina promo before launch on March 11. 

Purdue One Win Away from Outright Big Ten Title

The Boilermakers have already earned a share of the Big Ten regular-season title, and the Illini are the only team that can keep the Boilermakers from a second straight outright Big Ten crown. (To earn a share of the title, Illinois needs to win out to get to 13-5 and also needs Purdue to lose to Wisconsin at home on March 10.)

Purdue enters Tuesday on a modest three-game win streak after falling at Ohio State (73-69) on Feb. 18 but are just 1-2 against the spread in that span. They routed Rutgers 96-68 as 14.5-point chalk before an 84-76 win at Michigan as 13.5-point favorites and a narrow 80-74 home win over Michigan State as ten-point chalk.

A prohibitively short favorite in the Wooden Award odds, reigning-winner Zach Edey (24.0 PPG, 11.8 RPG) has played possessed since losing to the Buckeyes. He’s averaged 30.7 PPG and 11 RPG over the past three, including a season-high 35 points against the Wolverines.

Edey sits second in the nation in scoring (first among Power Six players) and third in rebounding (again, first among P6 players). But Purdue isn’t a one-man team this year. After finishing 12th in offensive efficiency last year, when Edey was posting similar numbers, they are up to second this season thanks largely to the excellent play of point guard Braden Smith (13.1 PPG, 7.1 APG, 44.1 3P%).

As a group, the Boilermakers are absolutely deadly from three, shooting 40.5% from deep, the third-best clip among all 362 DI teams.

Purdue earned a hard-fought 83-78 home win over Illinois on Jan. 5 despite a rare off night from Edey (10 points, 15 rebounds). With all of Illinois attention on Edey, sophomore forward Trey Kaufman-Renn had a season-high 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting.

Illinois Riding Three-Game Win Streak

The Illini have also won three in a row heading into the clash with Purdue. After losing by a point at Penn State – a game in which they blew a seven-point lead with less than a minute to play – Illinois has responded with championship mettle. The Illini beat Iowa 95-85 next time out and handled Minnesota 105-97 on Feb. 28.

Last time out on Saturday,  Brad Underwood’s team took down Wisconsin (91-83) in Madison as 3.5-point road underdogs.

Senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr (22.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.2 APG) is the only other Power Six player in the top five in scoring, nationwide.

With Marcus Domask (16.0 PPG, 4. 9 RPG), Coleman Hawkins (13.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG), and Quincy Guerrier (10.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG) also in double-figures, the Illini rate third in offensive efficiency (just one spot behind Purdue). Their defense, however, is an ugly 103rd.

PUR vs ILL Player Props

Player props as of March 5 at DraftKings. See the latest on the DraftKings North Carolina promo ahead of launch on March 11.  

Despite his lethargic 10-point performance the first time these teams met this year, Edey is listed with a game-high point total of 24.5, a number he’s exceeded in his last three games overall. Shannon leads the Illini at 21.5, half a point under his season average. Shannon missed the first game against Purdue while suspended by the university.

Purdue vs Illinois Prediction

Illinois has won 13 straight home games with Shannon in the lineup, while all Purdue is just 3-3 this year in true road games against teams rated in KenPom’s top 60. I see Purdue as a much more credible threat in the March Madness odds this season, but I don’t see them taking down a team as deep and talented as Illinois on the road.

PUR vs ILL pick: Illinois -2.5 (-105)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

• ATS: 16-16 (-1.48 units)
• Moneyline: 2-8 (-8.48 units)
• Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
• Player props: 2-2 (+0.78 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.