College Football Betting – Grier-less Gators in Tough at LSU

(8) Florida Gators at (6) LSU Tigers (-7.5, 46 o/u)

With QB Will Grier suspended for the rest of the season (PED use), the no. 8 Florida Gators (6-0, 4-0 SEC) will turn to sophomore Treon Harris for the remainder of 2015. Harris will be in tough to keep his Gators undefeated this Saturday as they take on Heisman frontrunner Leonard Fournette and the no. 6 LSU Tigers (5-0, 3-0 SEC) in Baton Rouge (1:00 PM Eastern).

Grier, who had been a revelation at QB (1,204 yards, ten touchdowns, three picks, and a 65.8 completion percentage), was suspended after testing positive for a banned supplement he ingested via an over-the-counter product. Harris has some experience – putting up just over a 1,000 yards and nine TDs in spot duty last year – but his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired; as a freshman, he completed just under 50-percent of his passes (55 of 111).

The silver lining is that Harris will bring a ton of speed to the position, and coach Jim McElwain will likely implement a run-heavy game plan that incorporates his new QB’s foot speed.

Superficially at least, the team remains confident that the sophomore will be able to keep the Gator offense rolling.

“We’ve got to move forward and we’ve got to all get behind Treon and rally him up and tell him he’s got our support,” Florida defensive tackle Jon Bullard said to the Associated Press. “I’m really not worried about it honestly. He’s a gamer. He’s showed that. He’s proved it. … I’m not really stressing. I told him today, I tapped him and I’m like, ‘I’m behind you. Let’s go. Take care of the ball and we’re going to be all right.'”

With Grier at quarterback, the Gators averaged 32.2 points per game and 384.7 totals yards per game. Those numbers will take a step back in the coming weeks, as the team leans more on RB Kelvin Taylor (438 yards and seven touchdowns) and the ground game.

For LSU, Saturday’s game will already be their third against a ranked opponent this season. The Tigers took down Mississippi State and Auburn in weeks two and three, respectively. They got a bit of a breather last weekend against a down South Carolina program, but the game remained close until the second half when LSU pulled away for a 45-24 win.

The Tigers are averaging an astounding 346.3 rushing yards per game, with the bulk of those coming from Fournette (204 YPG). The stud RB already has 1,022 yards and 12 touchdowns on just 119 carries.

South Carolina was able to contain Fournette for much of last week’s game. But he eventually proved too much for the Gamecocks, rattling off an 87-yard TD run in the second half that noticeably change the tenor of the game.

Though LSU coach Les Miles has the utmost confidence in his star, he’s also prepared for teams to gameplan against him.

“If teams stack up on Fournette, the opportunity to score in the air will be there,” Miles told the Associated Press. “If there are a lot of guys in the box, there will be the opportunity to make the throw. [Quarterback] Brandon [Harris] is beginning to understand the position. Quarterback is all about control. It is a much more cerebral position.”

The trends favor the Tigers and the under; LSU is 4-1 SU in its last five home games against Florida, while the total has stayed under in seven of last ten Gator/Tiger matchups in Baton Rouge. It’s also stayed under in four of Florida’s last six games on the road, overall.

The Florida defense should give Fournette all he can handle, but Treon Harris doesn’t inspire much confidence at QB for the Gators. Expect LSU to keep rolling at home.

Pick: LSU (-7.5). 

(Photo credit: JustDog (Own work) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons.)