College Football Upset Picks Today (Saturday, Sept. 23)

• College football Week 4 is another Dog Day Afternoon
• SMU, UCF and Memphis are live underdog plays
• Read below for analysis and predictions for college football Week 4 upsets

The heartland provides plenty for the underdog player to like in Week 4 of the college football season. Southern Methodist has won the last two times it has played metroplex rival TCU in Fort Worth, both times as a large dog.

Central Florida will be motivated in its first Big 12 game since joining the conference this season, and Memphis enters a game of unbeatens with a healthy quarterback, unlike Missouri.

Our Upset Pick #1 is 3-0 this season, with a net gain of plus-6.27 units on the moneyline.

SMU vs TCU Odds

Odds from BetMGM on Sept. 22. Claim a BetMGM promo code to make CFB upset picks today.

Let’s take a further look into the best CFB upset picks today in Saturday’s college football odds.

Upset Pick #1: SMU Takes the Skillet

SMU has won the last two times the Iron Skillet game has been played in Fort Worth, covering as a 9.5-point underdog in a 42-34 victory in 2021 and as an 8-point dog in a 41-38 victory in 2019. Points will be scored — the teams have combined for 76, 76 and 79 in the last three meetings. TCU was Deion Sanders’ first victim this season, and the Horned Frogs have a lot of pieces to replace from the team that made the CFP finals last year, as a look at the CFB wins total odds suggest.

• Longest pass play since 2018
• Fifth longest pass play in program history
 @_PrestonStone 🤝 @RDJ13__ pic.twitter.com/y5ts8ox3eP

— SMU Football (@SMUFB) September 17, 2023

Mustangs sophomore quarterback Preston Stone, who chose SMU over Texas, has stepped in for Wisconsin transfer Mike Mordecai and is a similar fit in Rhett Lashlee’s offense. Stone has completed 60.5 percent of his passes for 798 with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions this season. The Ponies’ most impressive game was a loss — they played Oklahoma to a standstill for 50 minutes before the Sooners scored twice late in a 28-11 victory two weeks ago. SMU outgained Oklahoma and had a four-minute edge in time of possession.

Pick: SMU (+220)

UCF vs Kansas State Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook on Sept. 22.

Upset Pick #2: UCF Opens Big 12 Play With a Win

The Knights play their first Big 12 game without their starting quarterback but with a backup who put up big numbers a week ago. John Rhys Plumlee suffered a right leg injury in an 18-16 victory over Boise State in week two and will miss a few weeks, so South Florida transfer Timmy McClain will make his second start for the Knights after throwing for 321 yards and two scores in a 48-14 home victory over over-matched FBS Villanova last week.

HIMMY MCCLAIN.

The @UCF_Football QB with a DIME to @javondbaker7 as the Knights extend their lead 🎯

📺 Big 12 Now on ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/lkvRCItqgF

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 17, 2023

The Knights take a step up in class this week but are looking to make a statement in their Big 12 debut after contending in the American , although neither is give much of a chance in the odds to win the Big 12. The Wildcats won the title a year ago behind an (unsustainable) plus-12 turnover margin and a (departed) star running back in Deuce Vaughn, who had 1,936 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns. K-State quarterback Will Howard is questionable after limping through the second half of a 30-27 loss at Missouri last week.

The line has careened downward due to Howard’s status after Kansas State opened as a 7-point favorite.

Pick: UCF (+158)

Memphis vs Missouri Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook on Sept. 22.

Upset Pick #3: Memphis Travels Upriver to Top Missouri

These neighboring Tigers will meet in “neutral site” St. Louis at The Dome of the Americas Center as part of a renegotiated deal to move the game from Memphis, for which Missouri paid $750,000. The Missouri logo is painted a midfield and the end zones are trimmed in Mizzou black and gold.

The only thing missing will be somewhere to make a bet, as Missouri sports betting apps aren’t legal in the state yet. Circle back in a year or two to see if things change.

But I say that’s the “only thing missing” because Missouri quarterback Brady Cook, who suffered a hyperextended right knee in a 30-27 walk-off victory over Kansas State last week, is expected to start after throwing for 356 yards against the Wildcats.

Week 4 College Football Big 12 Power Rankings🔥

Do you agree? 🤔https://t.co/VxeG8vA1sG pic.twitter.com/0XIOVbx2xV

— On3 (@On3sports) September 19, 2023

Memphis counters with efficient Seth Henigan, who has completed 71 percent of his passes this season and is coming off back-to-back 3,300-yard passing seasons. Both attended the Manning Passing Academy last summer. The Tennessee Tigers will contend in the retooled American Conference, and they are catching Missouri before it opens SEC play at Vanderbilt next week. Missouri opened as a 7-point favorite.

Pick: Memphis (+222)

Last week: +1.22 units

Season: +2.27 units