Final Ole Miss vs Miami Prediction, Best Bet & Updated Line – Fiesta Bowl

• #6 Ole Miss faces #10 Miami tonight in the CFP semifinals
• The Rebels’ offensive line is top-10 in both pressure rate and sack rate
• See my Final Ole Miss vs Miami prediction and best bet below, plus the latest betting line for the Fiesta Bowl

I doubt many people forecasted an Ole Miss vs Miami semifinal showdown in the college football playoff, but here we are with those programs battling for a spot in the National Championship.

Online sportsbooks are siding with the Hurricanes ahead of tonight’s Fiesta Bowl in the college football odds, but I see value on both the Rebels +3.5 and the total.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 pm ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my final Ole Miss vs Miami prediction and best bet, along with the latest betting line for the Fiesta Bowl.

Final Ole Miss vs Miami Prediction

• Ole Miss covers the +3.5 Spread

The handicap here, if you believe the Canes can advance, is that their defense will stymie the Rebels’ high-powered offense. Miami’s defense was the catalyst for their first two playoff upset wins over Texas A&M and CFP National Championship odds favorite Ohio State, but shutting down this Ole Miss attack won’t be so easy.

Let’s start with the elephant in the room. How can anyone slow down the Canes’ top-rated pass rush? Both the Aggies and Buckeyes couldn’t handle the Hurricanes’ pressure, but their offensive lines pale in comparison to the Rebels.

Ole Miss ranks top-10 in pressure rate and sack rate allowed, and features two tackles that rarely surrender pressure. Left tackle Diego Pounds hasn’t allowed a sack all season, and has given up only five pressures in four games versus Blue Bloods Georgia, Florida and Oklahoma. Right tackle Jayden Williams, meanwhile, surrendered only two sacks all year.

You know what else slows down a pass rush? Tempo, a strong running game and a mobile quarterback. The Rebels check the box in all three of those categories.

Ole Miss Rebels Offense

Ole Miss is going to play fast on offense, in an effort to wear out the Miami pass rushers. That was a strategy the Buckeyes eventually found in the quarterfinal, and it forced both Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor off the field at various points, leading to offensive success.

The Rebels operate similarly to SMU, only more efficiently, and the Mustangs carved up the Canes in the regular season. Ole Miss can also lean on running back Kewan Lacy, and he’ll be rushing against a Miami interior line that doesn’t have a single player graded as a top-100 run defender.

Finally, there’s QB Trinidad Chambliss. He’s been unflappable all season and is one of the premier dual-threat players at his position. His legs will get him out of trouble, but more importantly, he doesn’t make mistakes. He boasts a turnover-worthy play rate below 2% and has just a 13% sack-to-pressure ratio.

Ole Miss will be able to move the football just like they have all season, and is a threat not only to cover but also to win outright.

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Ole Miss vs Miami Best Bet

• Over 52.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

I like Ole Miss +3.5 tonight, but I love over 52.5. The reason being, I expect the Hurricanes’ offense to be able to punch back.

The Rebels allowed 77 points in two games versus Georgia, and also surrendered at least 24 points to Florida, Oklahoma and Arkansas. 9 of their 14 games this season have reached at least 53 points, and I expect this one will as well.

I don’t love that Miami struggles to generate explosive plays, but they’ll find plenty of success to keep the chains moving. Mark Fletcher Jr. has rushed for 262 yards through two playoff outings, while QB Carson Beck has completed 33 of 46 passes with zero turnovers.

Ole Miss ranks outside the top-65 in yards per carry and rushing yards allowed per game, and play a ton of quarters coverage on passing downs. Beck has shredded that scheme all season, posting a 63% success rate on drop-backs against it.

Throw in the Rebels’ poor tackling metrics (77th per PFF), and Miami should be able to methodically drive the field, answering the Ole Miss scores.

Ole Miss vs Miami Updated Line

The best place to bet over 52.5 right now is at DraftKings, whose -110 odds are the lowest in the market. As for the spread, multiple books are showing Ole Miss +3.5, but if you like Miami to cover, you can get the Canes -3 at -115 odds at Bet365.

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Odds as of Jan. 8 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on the College Football Playoff.

Per the college football public betting trends, over 52.5 is the more popular side of the total. It’s drawing 60% of over/under tickets as of Thursday afternoon, and 61% of the handle.