Ohio Favored Over Alabama, Georgia & Florida in Odds to Win CFP Title by State

• Bettors can wager on which state will produce the 2020-21 CFP national champion
• The state of Ohio has been given the best odds to produce the winner among the 14 individual states listed
• The FIELD option, which includes Clemson, Oregon, and Wisconsin, has the shortest odds of all

The 2020-21 college football season is scheduled to start on Aug. 29 with Notre Dame and Navy playing across the pond in Ireland. Whether that game happens or not (the Irish government recently banned gatherings of 5,000 people or more until at least the end of August), there is still a strong chance that the NCAA will crown a national champion this season.

With a lack of games to offer on their betting menu this spring, sportsbooks are getting creative with their summer and fall futures. On Monday, I looked at the College Football Championship Odds. Today, it’s odds to win by state.

Only 14 individual states are listed in this prop, along with a FIELD option.

Odds to Produce 2021 National Champion by State

Odds as of May 6. 

The state of Ohio is given a slight edge over Alabama among the 14 states listed, but it’s the FIELD which has the shortest odds of all. The biggest reason for that is South Carolina’s Clemson TIgers; on average, Clemson has +228 odds to win the 2021 national championship at online sportsbooks.

Ohio State has the second-best odds at +325, followed by Alabama at +438. After the Tide, there is a steep drop  to Georgia (+925) and defending champion LSU (+1075).

The Buckeyes Are Ohio’s Only Contender

Ohio is the favorite among the individual states even though the Buckeyes are the only legitimate title hopeful in the state. Cincinnati has certainly made strides in recent seasons, but (excepting Notre Dame) no team outside the Power 5 conferences has ever made the College Football Playoff, including an undefeated UCF (from Cincinnati’s AAC) back in 2017-18.

Betting Ohio in this prop is equivalent to betting the Buckeyes in the standard national championship futures. There’s no sense in taking a lesser potential payout to add longshots like Cincinnati, Toledo, and Miami (OH) to your bet slip.

Is Auburn Any Help in Alabama?

It goes without saying that Alabama is a legitimate national championship contender. They may have lost a ton to the NFL as usual (four first-round picks, three second-round picks, two third-round picks) and they may be a step behind Clemson and Ohio State, according to oddsmakers. But they had the #1 recruiting class in 2017 and 2019, plus the #2 class coming in for 2020.

The personnel is there, including at QB where capable sophomore Mac Jones will be pushed by dual-threat five-star Bryce Young.

Before last season when the Tide had to contend with juggernaut LSU, Nick Saban had put his team in the four-team playoff every year since its inception in 2014-15.

The big question here is whether the state of Alabama just a dolled-up version of Ohio or whether Auburn capable of making the jump to title contender.

Auburn finished last season 9-4 (including an Outback Bowl loss to Minnesota) and was ranked No. 14 in both polls. Recruiting-wise, they were no better than ninth from 2017 to 2019. While they were fifth in 2020, that will do more for their title chances in 2022 and beyond.

Anyone backing Auburn as a title contender will have to believe that QB Bo Nix will make big strides in his sophomore season. As a freshman, he showed glimpses of heroism (see fourth-quarter comeback against Oregon), but on the whole, he did not look like the elite QB that Auburn would need to become national champions.

He finished the year with a 57.6 completion percentage, 16 TD, and 6 INT. He racked up gaudy numbers against SEC bottom-feeders Ole Miss and Mississippi State, while completing fewer than 50% of his passes against Alabama, Florida, LSU, and Oregon.

Perhaps he’ll make the necessary progress in his second season. But with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields leading Clemson and Ohio State, I am not putting my faith in the Nix Administration.

Is the FIELD More Than Just Clemson?

My colleague has already written about the might of Dabo Swinney’s 2020 Clemson Tigers. I won’t bother recapping why they are deserving title favorites except to say that they have lost one game in the last two years and that game was against arguably the greatest college football team of all time. They have the Heisman Trophy favorite, arguably the best coach in the country, and a comparatively easy path to the Playoff in the ACC.

Is there any sense in taking a shorter number (+175) in order to lump in the likes of Oregon, Wisconsin, Utah, and Tennessee?

I am not terribly sold on any of those schools, individually, but I do like the prospect of having the two best teams in the Pac-12, at least on paper. While the conference has only ever put two teams in the CFP (and none in the last three years), it’s close to a coin flip that the conference champion will at least qualify for the CFP.

When you add in the likes of Wisconsin and Iowa State, my math says there is almost a 50/50 chance that the FIELD has two teams in the playoff.  The +175 odds have reasonably good value given the prospects of having half of the playoff field, including the outright favorite.

Pick: the FIELD (+175)