SEC Favored to Win 2021 CFP Title at +160; ACC Given Better Odds Than Big Ten
- Bettors can wager on which conference will produce the 2020-21 college football national champion
- The SEC is slightly favored over the ACC and Big Ten
- When comparing the odds by conference to the odds for each individual team, one conference is clearly being undervalued
With the start and length of the 2020-21 college football season in doubt due to COVID-19, oddsmakers have had time to come up with creative prop bets pertaining to the CFP National Champion.
Futures bets are available on which conference and which state will produce this year’s CFP winner. The conference odds are bunched at the top with the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten all between +160 and +290; no other conference is shorter than +1100.
Odds to Produce 2021 National Champion by Conference
| Conference | Title Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| SEC | +160 | 38.46% |
| ACC | +200 | 33.33% |
| Big Ten | +290 | 25.60% |
| Big 12 | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Pac-12 | +1100 | 8.33% |
| AAC | +20000 | 0.50% |
| Mountain West | +20000 | 0.50% |
| C-USA | +100000 | 0.10% |
| MAC | +100000 | 0.10% |
| Sun Belt | +100000 | 0.10% |
Odds as of May 4.
As shown in SBD’s College Football Playoff National Championship odds tracker, Clemson is the outright favorite (+225), but no other team in the ACC is shorter than Miami at +8000, so a wager on the ACC is mostly a wager on the Tigers. Bettors can still find Clemson as long as +300 at some online sportsbooks.
By contrast, the SEC has third-favorite Alabama at +438, fourth-favorite LSU at +850, fifth-favorite Georgia at +900, plus three other teams in the top 11: Florida (+1200), Auburn (+2800), and Texas A&M (+3000).
In the Big Ten, Ohio State is the second-favorite, nationally, at +290. Then there is a steep drop to Penn State at +2500, Michigan at +4500, and Wisconsin at +6600.
The table below shows the implied probability of the top-five teams in each power conference. (No offense to the Group of 5, but until a G5 team makes the CFP, the focus is going to remain on the big boys.)
Implied Probability for Each Conference’s Top-Five
| Conference | Top-Five Teams | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| SEC | Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Auburn | 53.50% |
| ACC | Clemson, Miami, UNC, FSU, Va Tech | 33.95% |
| Big Ten | Ohio St, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota | 30.52% |
| Big 12 | Oklahoma, Texas, OK St, ISU, | 8.71% |
| Pac-12 | Oregon, USC, Utah, Washington, Arizona St | 8.38% |
The first discrepancy to note is that the implied probability for the individual teams listed above adds up to 133.38%, which is a massive amount of over-rounding. The implied probability for the conferences is a much more reasonable 107%.
But even with that in mind, it’s clear which conference is being undervalued as a whole when compared to its individual constituents: the SEC. The difference between the conference as a whole (38.46%) and the top-five teams individually (53.50%) is a over 15%.
While 53.50% is unrealistically high, the fact remains, the SEC has at least four legitimate title threats and three of the top-five favorites. It’s also the only conference that has ever put two teams in the College Football Playoff: Alabama and Georgia in 2017-18.
The biggest issue with the SEC is that putting two teams in again next season is not overly likely. So, at best, if you bet the SEC, you will likely end up with one of Bama, UGA, LSU, or Florida as your horse for the semifinals and finals. If that’s the case and Clemson and Ohio State are both in the CFP, +160 is not going to look like a good deal.
The second-biggest gap between conference and individual teams is the Big Ten at just under 5%. The Big Ten was left out of the CFP entirely in both 2017-18 and 2018-19. No team in the conference aside from Ohio State is shorter than +2500 (3.85% chance).
The odds for the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12 are basically bang on when compared to the odds for the top-five teams in the conference. The biggest discrepancy among those three is the ACC at 0.62%.
If I had to bet this prop, I would wager on the SEC and hope for a repeat of 2017-18. But realistically, this is a stay away. I’m all aboard the Clemson train and would much rather bet them individually at +300 than tack on Miami and company at a shorter price.
Come back on Wednesday for the odds and analysis on which state will produce the next national champion.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
