TCU vs Stanford Odds, Spread & Prediction – CFB Week 1

• ACC-newcomer Stanford hosts the Big 12’s TCU at Stanford Stadium on Friday, Aug. 30
• Coming off an ugly 3-9 season, the Cardinal are 9.5-point home underdogs in their 2024 opener
• Below, see the TCU vs Stanford odds and predictions

Entering the second year of the Troy Taylor era, the Stanford Cardinal (3-9, 0-7 home, 5-7 ATS) are still in search of their first home victory under David Shaw’s replacement. On Friday, the Cardinal kickoff their 2024 campaign with a stiff test against the Big 12’s TCU Horned Frogs (5-7, 1-4 away, 5-7 ATS).

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting Taylor’s home losing streak to end in Week 1, listing the Cardinal as 9.5-point home underdogs in the TCU vs Stanford odds.

TCU vs Stanford Odds

Stanford is priced at +260 on the moneyline to win their first home game under Taylor, and also start their ACC residency with a victory. The Horned Frogs are -325 to win straight-up while the game total is sitting at 60 with -110 odds both ways.

Both teams were good under bets last year. TCU was 4-8 O/U while Stanford went 5-7 over/under.

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TCU Returns a Ton of Production

With sophomore QB Josh Hoover leading a long list of returnees, bigger and better things are expected from the Frogs in 2024.  Their NCAAF win total is sitting at 7.5 to start the season, despite winning just five games last year.

Hoover was far from perfect as a freshman but showed a ton of promise after taking over the starting job from an injured Chandler Morris (who has transferred to North Texas for his senior year) in mid-October. Hoover piled up 2,156 yards over seven games from Oct. 7 to Nov. 24, connecting at a 62.4% completion rate with 15 TDs and nine picks.

Hoover had a pair of 400-yard games as a passer last year, both in winning efforts. He piled up 439 yards on 63.8% passing in a 44-11 demolition of BYU, and then had 412 yards on 82.8% passing in a 42-17 rout of Baylor, both at home.

Hoover will have his top-two targets back as well: WRs Savion Williams and JP Richardson, though start tight end Jared Wiley (520 receiving yards, eight TDs) is now in the NFL while starting RB Emani Bailey (1,209 rushing yards, nine TDs) graduated.

All in all, TCU returns 71% of its production from last season, which puts them 21st out of the 134 FBS teams. A massive 78% of production returns on defense, which is a positive sign for a unit that gave up 27.8 PPG last year (81st in FBS).

Stanford … Can’t Be Worse

Like TCU, Stanford will also have its starting QB back in 2023 as Ashton Daniels returns for his junior year. Daniels was reasonably effective last season, his first as starter, finishing with 2,247 yards but just a 58.5% completion percentage, 11 TDs, and eight interceptions in nine full games (and parts of three others). The mobile pivot added 296 yards and three more TDs on the ground.

His best outing came in a 46-43 double-OT upset at Colorado, when he went 27/45 (60%) for 396 yards, four touchdowns, and no picks against a highly suspect Buffs defense.

Stanford was well below average on both sides of the ball in 2023. They managed just 20.8 PPG on offense (118th) while surrendering 37.7 (132nd). Only UMass (37.8) allowed more points per game.

Stanford is in the top-third of the country when it comes to returning production (67% overall, 69% on offense, 65% on defense).

Backup QB Justin Lamson, who finished last season as the leading rusher on arguably the worst rushing team in the nation (334 rushing yards) also returns and figures to see snaps in most games, just like last year.

Each of Stanford’s top-three receivers from last year are also returning: WR Elic Ayomanor (1.103 yards, six TDs), WR Tiger Bachmeier (409 yards, two TDs), and TE Sam Roush (288 yards, no TDs). But starting running back EJ Smith has transferred to Texas A&M.

Taylor landed a handful of transfers in the portal, including Washington CB Jaivion Green and Yale edge rusher Clay Patterson. But expectations are still very low. Stanford’s win total has been set at just 3.5.

TCU vs Stanford Predictions & Picks

A 9.5-point spread is a big ask for the Frogs on the road in Week 1. I am very optimistic about Hoover entering his sophomore season and expect him to put up big numbers with all the returning weapons on the outside. But I also expect Stanford’s offense to be significantly better this year than it was last, and the TCU defense is not exactly a shut-down unit.

Instead of taking the Frogs to cover a big number as road favorites, my lean is to the over on the total of 60. With plenty of production returning in their own receiving corps and Daniels back for his second go as starter, Stanford should make significant gains in both efficiency and scoring offense this year.

TCU vs Stanford pick: over 60.0 (-110)