Week 5 College Football Odds – See Line Movement in Spread and Totals for Notable October 2nd Games
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Week 5 on the College Football schedule continues Saturday (October 2nd)
- Money has flooded in on some key games, most notably the highly anticipated matchup between #12 Ole Miss and #1 Alabama
- See below for which games have seen the biggest spread and total movement over the course of the past six days
The college football season rolls on Saturday (October 2nd) with a buffet of appetizing games. Bettors have taken a clear stand on a handful of the day’s marquee matchups, but no spread or total has been hit harder than the SEC showdown between #12 Ole Miss and #1 Alabama.
Week 5 College Football Odds
| Matchup | Opening Spread | Current Spread | Opening Total | Current Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #8 Arkansas vs #2 Georgia | UGA (-18) | UGA (-17.5) | 48.5 | 48.5 |
| #14 Michigan vs Wisconsin | WISC (-1) | WISC (-2.5) | 43.5 | 43.5 |
| Duke vs North Carolina | UNC (-18) | UNC (-20) | 69.5 | 72.5 |
| Tennessee vs Missouri | TENN (-3) | TENN (-3) | 62.5 | 66 |
| Louisville vs #24 Wake Forest | WAKE (-6.5) | WAKE (-7) | 60.5 | 63 |
| #7 Cincinnati vs #9 Notre Dame | CIN (-1) | CIN (-1.5) | 52 | 50.5 |
| UL Monroe vs #16 Coastal Carolina | CCU (-31.5) | CCU (-34) | 58 | 57.5 |
| #12 Ole Miss vs #1 Alabama | ALA (-16.5) | ALA (-14.5) | 75 | 79.5 |
| #6 Oklahoma vs Kansas State | OU (-10.5) | OU (-11.5) | 52.5 | 53.5 |
| #11 Ohio State vs Rutgers | OSU (-15.5) | OSU (-15) | 56.5 | 57.5 |
| #10 Florida vs Kentucky | FLA (-8) | FLA (-7.5) | 55 | 56 |
| Louisiana Tech vs #23 NC State | NCST (-19.5) | NCST (-17.5) | 55 | 55 |
| Mississippi State vs #15 Texas A&M | TA&M (-9.5) | TA&M (-7) | 47 | 46 |
| #21 Baylor vs #19 Oklahoma State | OKST (-4) | OKST (-3.5) | 49.5 | 47 |
| Indiana vs #4 Penn State | PSU (-10) | PSU (-12.5) | 52 | 53.5 |
| Western Kentucky vs #17 Michigan State | MSU (-8.5) | MSU (-10.5) | 59 | 64.5 |
| Boston College vs #25 Clemson | CLEM (-14.5) | CLEM (-14.5) | 47 | 46.5 |
| #22 Auburn vs LSU | LSU (-3.5) | LSU (-3) | 53 | 57 |
| Washington vs Oregon State | WASH (-2.5) | ORST (-1.5) | 54 | 57.5 |
| Arizona State vs #20 UCLA | UCLA (-4) | UCLA (-3) | 55 | 55.5 |
| #18 Fresno State vs Hawai’i | FRES (-11) | FRES (-11) | 63 | 65 |
Odds as of Sept. 30th at DraftKings.
Online sportsbooks pegged the Crimson Tide at -16.5 in the Week 5 opening odds, with a game total of 75. Both those numbers are long gone however, as the current spread sees Alabama as 14.5-point chalk, while the total has moved from 75 up to 79.5.
Offensive Fireworks Expected in Tuscaloosa
There’s no secret as to why the total for this mega-tilt is on the move. The Rebels and Tide rank first and fourth respectively in points per game, and feature the top-two contenders to win the Heisman Trophy.
Matt Corral, the Heisman frontrunner, has produced 15 total touchdowns through three games without committing a turnover. He ranks second in the FBS in most dropbacks with zero turnover worthy plays this season, and is fresh off a 7 TD performance last time out.
Matt Corral through three quarters:
🦈 403 Total Yds
🦈 4 Rush TDs
🦈 3 Pass TDsHe put up video game numbers for @OleMissFB 😳 pic.twitter.com/vg6ydQz9JU
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 19, 2021
Ole Miss ranks near the top in every major offensive category, and are just as likely to score on the ground as they are through the air.
Only three teams average more rushing yards per game than the Rebels, while Lane Kiffin’s crew ran for 268 yards and four scores in last year’s meeting with Alabama. In that same game, Corral threw for 365 yards against the Crimson Tide, and bettors expect the Rebels to keep pace in a high scoring affair on Saturday.
Bryce Young meanwhile, has been as good as advertised for Alabama, and owns a 15-to-1 TD-to-INT rate. He’s thrown for at least three scores in all four of his starts, leading the Tide to 30+ points in each outing.
Highest-graded QBs of Week 4
1. Bryce Young, Alabama – 94.2
2. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh – 93.3
3. Henry Colombi, Texas Tech – 93.0
4. Casey Thompson, Texas – 92.5
5. T.J. Finley, Auburn – 92.2 👀 pic.twitter.com/5jh0gGYyze— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 26, 2021
These two teams combined to score 111 points last season, but expecting another 80+ point outing is a lot to ask. Just six Alabama games over the past five seasons have eclipsed 79 points, and we shouldn’t expect video games numbers out of Ole Miss this time around, given the strength of the Tide’s defense and the raucous Tuscaloosa crowd.
68% of the total wagers in the college football betting trends are backing Over 79.5 but don’t get sucked in to betting a bad number. Fade the line move on the total and take Under 79.5.
Money Pouring In on Mississippi State
Another huge line move throughout the week has seen Mississippi State go from a 9.5-point underdog down to +7 versus #15 Texas A&M.
The Aggies no-showed last week in a loss to #8 Arkansas, managing just 10 points, while the Bulldogs are capable of not only covering this number, but winning outright.
🙌 @showtimemakai got behind the defense and @Wrogers__2 did the rest#HailState🐶 pic.twitter.com/RDyGMUJCrc
— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) September 25, 2021
Mississippi State already owns a victory over #23 NC State, and fell just short of upsetting a very good LSU program in Week 4. They grade out as the 36th best team in the nation per SP+, and are holding enemy backfields to 2.8 yards per carry. They’re going to make A&M one dimensional which doesn’t bode well for Aggies quarterback Zach Calzada.
No. 16 Arkansas upsets No. 7 Texas A&M, 20-10 👀 pic.twitter.com/9OaNgOCOBL
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) September 25, 2021
The sophomore pivot is completing only 52.8% of his passes, while averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt on the season, and only 4.8 yards versus Power 5 competition.
A&M has a Week 6 showdown looming with Alabama and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if they’re caught looking ahead to next week. Buy the line move and back the Bulldogs even at the shortened price.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
