Upcoming Match-ups

2019 Emmy Award Odds & Picks for Each Category Ahead of Show

JJ De La Torre

by JJ De La Torre in Entertainment

Updated Mar 25, 2020 · 11:14 AM PDT

Emmy Awards in a case
Stars and series compete for the 2019 Primetime Emmy Awards. Photo by Aranami [Flickr]
  • Tonight, the 2019 Emmy Awards are awarded to the best in television
  • Old favorites and new hit series alike are up as top contenders
  • See the odds for all categories below

Tonight (Sunday, September 22) at 8pm ET, the 71st annual Primetime Emmy Awards will be given out to the best in television over the past year. Series and stars face each other in head-to-head combat where only one per category can reign supreme.

The nominees this year are led by series juggernaut HBO followed by Netflix and then Amazon Prime Video.

With television being heavily regarded as arguably the most important storytelling platform these days, the Emmys are a big night for the whole entertainment business.

Outstanding Comedy Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Veep +100
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel +225
Barry +350
Fleabag +450
Russian Doll +2500
Schitt’s Creek +3300
The Good Place +3300

*Odds taken September 22

Veep remains the favorite, but it was seen as -400 favorites when odds opened.

Vice-in-Chief

Julia Louis-Dreyfus returned this year to her acclaimed program Veep after a gap year. Turns out the time away really paid off. Fans and critics alike applauded the new season, with Louis-Dreyfus’ Veep now a bigger show to watch than ever.

Last year’s winner The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is still one to watch in this category, without a doubt. And given Barry‘s success it would make sense to see the Bill Hader-series take home this trophy, too.

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The whole category sees some amazing programs across the board. Netflix’s Russian Doll was a big hit when it was first released, and The Good Place has become a fan favorite.

But you cannot deny the power of a comeback, and this year Veep came back bigger than ever.

Pick: Veep (+100)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series Odds

Nominee Odds
 Bill Hader (Barry) -1000
Ted Danson (The Good Place) +800
Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) +800
Don Cheadle (Black Monday) +1400
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish) +1400
Eugene Levy (Schitt’s Creek) +3300

All eyes are on Bill Hader as he took center stage in the hilarious Barry. Hader, a long-term character actor who got his start on Saturday Night Live finally sees his chance in the spotlight on Barry after years of playing minor characters.

Turns out Hader had it in him all along to win the audience’s mass appeal. Barry is well-loved across the board.

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This category holds a few other major contenders too, with Hollywood royalty like Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) and Don Cheadle (Black Monday)  filling out the other nominee slots.

But you can’t contend with Hader’s star-making turn in Barry.

Pick: Bill Hader (Barry) (-1000)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) -200
Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method) +350
Henry Winkler (Barry) +450
Tony Hale (Veep) +1400
Anthony Carrigan (Barry) +1500
Stephen Root (Barry) +2000

Alan Arkin and Henry Winkler might be the big names in this category, but Emmy judges do not discern based on legacy and/or popularity.

Tony Shalhoub has been praised for his work on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, so it’s pretty likely to see him carry that honor all the way to the winners’ circle.

Pick: Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (-200)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) -400
Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag) +400
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) +750
Catherine O’Hara (Schitt’s Creek) +2500
Christina Applegate (Dead to Me) +4000
Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll) +4000

Again, Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ Veep comeback is inarguable. Even with wonderful performances by others in the category (including last year’s winner, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel‘s Rachel Brosnahan), she’s undefeatable.

We have some undeniable performances in this category, which includes Christina Applegate’s impressive role in Dead to Me, and Natasha Lyonne’s quirky performance in Russian Doll.

Louis-Dreyfus has already won this award six years in a row for her work in Veep, and the only reason last year was an omission was because of Veep‘s year off the air.

Well, she’s back, and because of the success of Veep‘s second act, this year she’s going to be picking up her seventh Emmy for her role as Selina Meyer.

Pick: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) (-900)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Olivia Colman (Fleabag) +120
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) +150
Sian Clifford (Fleabag) +500
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live) +1500
Anna Chlumsky (Veep) +1800
Sarah Goldberg (Barry) +1800
Betty Gilpin (Glow) +3300
Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) +3300

A nice reprieve from the regular programming as Fleabag takes the lead. Olivia Colman is the breakout star of the show, rightfully so.

This category has lots of nice representation from interesting shows such as Glow and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, but it’s nice to see a real performance recognized rather than all the heavy-hitter beloved shows.

Pick: Olivia Colman (Fleabag) (+120)

Outstanding Drama Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Game of Thrones -800
Killing Eve +650
Better Call Saul +1400
This Is Us +1400
Ozark +2000
Pose +2000
Succession +2500
Bodyguard +3300

Anyone who doesn’t live in a cave could have told you that this year, in the television world the main topic was the series finale of Game of Thrones.

The HBO heavy-lifter closed out its run after a too-long break, and the results received mixed reviews, to say the least. But despite fans’ reactions, you can’t deny the power of the fantasy series.

Even on its worst day, Game of Thrones is still considered better quality programming than its competitors. And given that it’s taken its last bow, we are likely to see voters awarding the final season almost as a thank you for making viewers invested in television as a medium again.

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Thrones aside, we have some amazing and well-loved programs in the mix in this category. Killing Eve has picked up a lot of attention, Pose is a surprising up and comer, and Ozark really picked up steam this year.

But it could be anyone in the competitors’ seats here. Watch for Game of Thrones to clean up in this category, just as it has done the past several years.

Pick: Game of Thrones (-800)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Billy Porter (Pose) +125
Jason Bateman (Ozark) +140
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) +300
Kit Harington (Game of Thrones) +900
Sterling K. Brown (This is Us) +1600
Milo Ventimiglia (This is Us) +2000

Speaking of Pose, even it it’s not slated to win an Emmy in the series category, you can surely watch for breakout star Billy Porter to clean up in the lead dramatic actor category for his role as Pray Tell on the dramatic series.

A lot of long shots fill this category, made up of characters who’ve seen better seasons that what they’re nominated for here. This is Us’ Sterling K. Brown and Milo Ventimiglia and Game of Thrones‘ Kit Harington have all given us better work on previous seasons of their shows and not won on those respective years.

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The only one really nipping at Porter’s heels here is Jason Bateman in Ozark. Bateman may be a bona fide film star now, but he truly makes sense on the television medium as we are able to see him unravel layers of his characters over the course of a few seasons. His work in Ozark is nothing short of impressive.

But Pose‘s Porter is a more fresh, unique character on an also beloved show. He’s going to take this one home.

Pick: Billy Porter (Pose) (+125)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) -450
Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul) +600
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game of Thrones) +600
Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) +3300
Michael Kelly (House of Cards) +3300
Alfie Allen (Game of Thrones) +4000
Chris Sullivan (This is Us) +5000

Peter Dinklage was a shining star throughout the entire series of Game of Thrones, so it only makes sense to award the man.

It’s very unlikely anyone else in this category can sweep it, but Better Call Saul‘s Jonathan Banks is a close call if it’s going to be anyone but Dinklage.

Pick: Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) (-450)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) -1000
Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) +800
Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) +800
Laura Linney (Ozark) +1400
Robin Wright (House of Cards) +1400
Viola Davis (How to Get Away With Murder) +3300
Mandy Moore (This is Us) +4000

Then we have Lead Actress in a Drama Series. This category is a very interesting race to watch.

With last year’s winner, Claire Foy (The Crown) out of the running, we see a fresh-faced batch of potential nominees, most of which may be true contenders for the prize here.

But nobody is more likely to take home this trophy than Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) for a performance many think was robbed of the trophy last time around.

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Other performances in the category to watch include Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) and Laura Linney (Ozark), but none of them can touch the dramatic spectrum Sandra Oh has delivered throughout Killing Eve.

Pick: Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) (-1000)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Julia Garner (Ozark) -130
Maisie Williams (Game of Thrones) +300
Lena Headey (Game of Thrones) +325
Gwendoline Christie (Game of Thrones) +1200
Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve) +1500
Sophie Turner (Game of Thrones) +5000

Despite the Game of Thrones-heavy nominees in this category (No, seriously– four of the six? Wow!), we have Julia Garner’s killer performance in Ozark on our hands.

Garner’s been critically loved across the board, and it only seems right that she’ll walk home with this award.

Pick: Julia Garner (Ozark) (-130)

Outstanding Limited Series Odds

Nominee Odds
When They See Us -800
Chernobyl +650
Escape At Dannemora +1400
Fosse/Verdon +1400
Sharp Objects +2000

Ava DuVernay’s intense, boiling When They See Us  got major fanfare for its heartstring-pulling topic and execution. It’s s shoo-in to win this category.

We see a few other standouts such as the Amy Adams-led Sharp Objects and the Internet-buzz-heavy Chernobyl, but none of them close to When They See Us‘ gripping quality.

Pick: When They See Us (-800)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Jharrel Jerome (When They See Us) -200
Jared Harris (Chernobyl) +300
Mahershala Ali (True Detective) +425
Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon) +1700
Hugh Grant (A Very English Scandal) +4000
Benicio del Toro (Escape at Dannemora) +5000

Again, When They See Us comes out due to its passionate, fierce intensity. This program really connected with viewers and critics, and it’s a lot in thanks to the performances.

Jharrel Jerome shone in this hit, and he’s more than likely to end up on top.

Pick: Jharrel Jerome (When They See Us) (-200)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon) -150
Patricia Arquette (Escape At Dannemora) +160
Amy Adams (Sharp Objects) +550
Joey King (The Act) +4000
Niecy Nash (When They See Us) +4500
Aunjanue Ellis (When They See Us) +5000

It may not be a big hit in the other categories, but Fosse/Verdon was a big conversation piece for one thing in particular: Michelle Williams.

The Hollywood A-lister returned to television for this limited series and boy did she ever deliver. Her competition in this category is hardly even on the table, and she’s definitely slotted in for the win.

Pick: Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon) (-150)

Outstanding Television Movie Odds

Nominee Odds
Deadwood: The Movie -350
Black Mirror: Bandersnatch +190
Brexit +3300
My Dinner with Herve +3300
King Lear +4000

An interesting assortment fills this category, but the odds are on Deadwood: The Movie. It’s not often a television show is wrapped up with a film, and when that happens it usually stinks. (No offense, Sex and the City fans, but really!)

Given Deadwood‘s delivery, it’s likely in the bag. But coming up for the win could be Netflix’s choose-your-own-adventure Black Mirror: Bandersnatch.

Pick: Deadwood: The Movie (-350)

Outstanding Variety Talk Series Odds

Nominee Odds
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver -500
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert +300
Full Frontal With Samantha Bee +3300
Jimmy Kimmel Live! +3300
The Daily Show With Trevor Noah +3300
The Late Late Show With James Corden +3300

The battle of the talk show hosts is on. But then again, not all late-night shows are created equally. We’ve seen more seat swapping than ever in this field in recent years, and it’s quite divisive in terms of popularity.

John Oliver takes the lead with Colbert not far behind. But Oliver has a certain air of distinction and maturity that comes with his program. Turns out churning out water fights with the President and guessing games with Ariana Grande aren’t Emmy-worthy. Sorry, Corden and Kimmel.

Pick: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (-500)

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