Who Dies First? Box Office Odds for Avengers: Infinity War

Still from 'Avengers: Infinity War'
A whole lot of Avengers, heading to war. (Marvel Studios)
  • Avengers: Infinity War had its world premiere Monday night, and will be open on wide-release April 27th
  • After a decade of build-up, will Infinity War’s opening weekend make box office history?
  • More importantly, which beloved Marvel character will be next to go? 

It is a cinematic event ten years in the makingwith all the eager anticipation a decade of build-up is bound to bring. Avengers: Infinity War, Marvel Studio’s latest addition to their ever-expanding universe, is finally here, and it does not look ready to disappoint.


Expectations are about as high as they could go at this point, giving Infinity War much to live up to. But, the Russo brothers have set a good stage and as far as franchise endings go, this one is off to a great start. Worldwide release happened Monday night, and with less than 48 hours to go before wide domestic release, Infinity War is already setting records.

While it might not be the end of line quite yet for all of our Avengers, it is far too unlikely they will all get to enjoy their retirement happily-ever-after. There is simply no use denying it; someone is bound to go. Whether by self-sacrifice or because Thanos is one bad mother-trucker, Infinity War is going to force us to say goodbye to one of the characters we have spent literal years getting to know.

We have tried, but we just can’t see a way around that one.

Who Will Die Next?

First a preface: Infinity War is only technically the beginning of the end, right? So, there is a chance that our favorites will stay alive this time — only to be taken from us in the follow-up film. Also, when we talk about dying, we don’t mean it in a Groot-Baby Groot sense. No regeneration, no surprise twist that the character returns. Just your plain, old-fashioned, heroic goodbye for whomever the bell tolls.

Which film will the next Avenger die in? Odds
Avengers: Infinity War 2/3
Avengers 4 (as yet untitled) 3/2

We are leaning towards this first film. (1) If someone dies in Infinity War, there is a larger driving impetus going into Avengers 4 — avenging is, after all, what this team does best, and what better to avenge than a death? (2) None of our main characters have died yet; not really, anyways. We are long overdue to say goodbye, and there are certain characters that have been prepped to do just that.

Which Avenger will die next? Odds
Captain America  3/1
Iron Man  3/1
Falcon  9/1
The Vision 10/1
 Scarlet Witch 12/1
 Hawkeye 20/1
Ant-Man  50/1
Star-Lord  50/1
Thor 50/1
Black Panther 50/1
Other  9/1

O Captain! My Captain! It’s hard to see how Steve Rogers will make it out of this war alive. First, we see him in the trailer going head-to-head with Thanos — not a great sign. But, also, take his entire storyline into consideration. It’s always been about sacrifice, and as the official Avengers morality police, he may be the first one to lay himself down for the sake of the team.

Perhaps there is something poetic about him being the first to die, in that universe’s biggest movie yet.

Unless it’s Tony Stark who takes the bullet first, which is our next best bet. Marvel has teased us with Stark’s death since 2008’s Iron Man, and things don’t look so hot for him in the trailer, either. He was our first Avenger, and launched the Marvel universe for us. Perhaps there is something poetic about him being the first to die, in that universe’s biggest movie yet.

Wondering why we relegated our dear Hulk to the “Other” field? Unless we’re about to be thrown for a complete loop, Bruce Banner/The Hulk is so far off our radar as a potential that there was no other logical place for him to go. It’s just a little impossible — physically speaking — to do away with The Hulk.

Let’s just not read too much into Mark Ruffalo’s comments, which are clearly riddled with sarcasm. Right, Mark? Right?

Box Office Odds

But, let’s leave things on a more positive note, shall we?

As it stands, Infinity War is well-poised to make some box-office history, though it won’t be easy. Star Wars: The Force Awakens set an incredibly high bar with its $57 million Thursday preview gross, and $119.2 million in first day earnings. Infinity War is going to have to hustle to meet, let alone exceed, those numbers.

…pre-sale tickets for Infinity War are 7% higher than those for Star Wars: The Last Jedi were at this time prior to release, and a staggering 250% higher than those for Black Panther.

Yet, the Atom Ticket app has reported that pre-sale tickets for Infinity War are 7% higher than those for Star Wars: The Last Jedi were at this time prior to release, and a staggering 250% higher than those for Black Panther. (The Last Jedi was Atom Ticket’s previous record-holder.)

A hustle will be needed, but there is a strong chance Infinity War has got the legs for it.

Odds Infinity War breaks record for the biggest worldwide debut weekend: 9/1

Odds that Infinity War beats out Stars Wars: The Force Awakens in opening weekend numbers: 1/1

Over/Under opening weekend gross (domestic): $230.5 million

Over/Under opening day / biggest Friday gross (domestic): $100.5 million