Late Night TV Odds: Fallon Winning Ratings War

The war over late night television is now being fought on multiple fronts. Jay Leno and David Letterman never had to concern themselves with YouTube hits or Twitter followers or Facebook shares. They only had to worry about one thing: viewership. Today, the old metric of television ratings does not capture the whole landscape of late night, but it still reigns supreme in the eyes of the networks.

The 2015 season saw the replacement of David Letterman with Stephen Colbert, who dropped his Comedy Central character (also named Stephen Colbert) when he moved to CBS. Since then, he has been getting consistently thrashed by Jimmy Fallon (NBC) in the ratings.

Ratings across the board have fallen within the last few years. The ratings Leno and Letterman were pulling during their heyday are well and truly a thing of the past. But in a time of shrinking viewership, Jimmy Fallon has found a way to make it work.

As it stands, here are the average viewership numbers for this season.

11:35 Time-Slot:

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: 3.33 million

Late Show with Stephen Colbert: 2.86 million

Jimmy Kimmel Live: 2.26 million

12:35 Time-Slot:

Late Night with Seth Meyers: 1.56 million

Late Late Show with James Corden: 1.33 million

Late Night Cable:

The Daily Show with Trevor Noah: 0.93 million

Conan: 0.53 million

Jimmy Fallon is the undisputed king of late night and the real struggle is for second place. Jimmy Kimmel of ABC has a chance to overtake the Late Show (CBS) for the first time since he started. James Corden (CBS) is also doing exceptionally well, given the hand he has been dealt. He is currently neck-and-neck with Seth Meyers (NBC), who carries the advantage of an enormous lead-in from Jimmy Fallon.

In the world of late night cable, Conan continues to do his own thing on TBS. His ratings aren’t comparable to the big guys, but that’s kinda the point. He’s at a smaller network making a smaller show. Trevor Noah has been disappointing since taking over from Jon Stewart, but then again, Stewart left a void that no one else could fill.

Late Night Television Odds for the 2016 Season

Over/Under on average viewership:

• The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: 3.4 million
• Late Show with Stephen Colbert: 3.0 million
• Jimmy Kimmel Live: 2.2 million
• Late Night with Seth Meyers: 1.7 million
• Late Late Show with James Corden: 1.4 million
• The Daily Show with Trevor Noah: 0.8 million
• Conan: 0.6 million

Odds Fallon remains the highest-rated host at the end of the season: 3/47

Odds at least one late night show is canceled by the end of season: 19/1

Odds Kimmel Overtakes Stephen Colbert by the end of the season: 4/1

Odds that Corden Overtakes Seth Meyers by the end of the season: 17/3

Photo credit: Eliza (flickr) CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0].