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Will Trump Fire Rosenstein? Odds on the Deputy AG’s Future

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein allegedly suggested recording President Trump in secret. Will he resign or be fired at Thursday's meeting with the POTUS? Photo by Internet Education Foundation (flickr) CC License.
  • Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein allegedly suggested secretly recording President Trump and trying to remove him from office. 
  • His time as the Deputy AG is almost certainly at an end. 
  • Politicos can wager at online betting sites on whether Rosenstein will resign or get fired. 

It’s no secret that Donald J. Trump is not a fan of his Justice Department. He’s already declared “I have no Attorney General,” largely because Jeff Sessions recused himself from the investigation into Russian meddling, a decision which left oversight of the probe to Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein.

He’s going to be even more irate with that decision this week after certain revelations about Rosenstein came to light.

The New York Times reported that Rosenstein “suggested last year that he secretly record President Trump in the White House to expose the chaos consuming the administration, and … recruiting cabinet members to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Mr. Trump from office for being unfit.”

That’s not going to sit well with Donald Trump, or rather Donald Trump’s ego. (Actually, there’s no difference between the two, so let’s leave it at Donald Trump.) Trump and Rosenstein had an abbreviated meeting on Monday and are scheduled to meet again on Thursday.

The overwhelming feeling is that Rosenstein will not be in his current post come Friday.

MyBookie.ag is so certain of his departure that the online sportsbook has released odds on, not whether he’s on the way out, but how it’s going to happen. Will he leave of his own volition or will POTUS utter the two-word phrase he made famous on The Apprentice?

Will Rod Rosenstein Get Fired or Resign?

What will happen to Rod Rosenstein? Odds at MyBookie (Sep. 24, 2018)
Resigns -120
Gets fired -120

When your secret backroom tactics about trying to get your boss fired are revealed to the world, you generally tuck your tail and leave. And were this any other President, “resigns” would be the favorite.

But it’s not. It’s Trump. And, though he disputes the Times’ story, odds are that Rosenstein feels strongly about being an impediment to Trump’s Trumpy-ness. The only way he can do that now is by digging in his heels and forcing the President to fire him.

That tack has its supporters among the Democrats.

Plus, Rosenstein has said publicly that he “never pursued or authorized recording the President and any suggestion that I have ever advocated for the removal of the President is absolutely false.” Resigning would only give credence to the claims in the NYT report that he denies.

Will Donald Trump Say He Fired Rosenstein?

Will Trump say he fired Rod Rosenstein? Odds at MyBookie (Sep. 24, 2018)
Yes -300
No +200

However Trump and Rosenstein breakup, the oddsmakers are pretty sure that Trump will say he’s the one who ended it.

Trump loves appearing strong — make that “has an unceasing need to appear strong, likely instilled by inexorable father issues” — and telling the world he gave someone the axe sates that need, however briefly.


Whether you think Rosenstein is going to resign or not, there could be value on the “Yes” side of this wager.

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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been SBD's lead oddsmaker/number cruncher since 2014. He writes about everything you can possibly put odds on. He's happiest when those things are football, baseball, hockey and basketball (in that order).