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Oppenheimer Now Favored in 2024 Best Picture Odds After Critically-Acclaimed Opening

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in Entertainment

Updated Jul 24, 2023 · 10:31 AM PDT

Christopher's Nolan's movie Oppnehimer is now the favorite in the 2024 Best Picture odds.
An advertisement for Christopher Nolan's biopic Oppenheimer on a building in Katowice, Poland. Photo by Marek Mróz (Wikimedia Commons).
  • Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer is now the betting favorite in the 2024 Best Picture odds
  • Oppenheimer opened to critical praise and exceeded box office expectations
  • Read below for the updated 2024 Best Picture odds, plus analysis on Oppenheimer’s chances

Will Oppenheimer win Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars? The updated betting odds suggest Christopher Nolan’s biopic is now the film to beat at the 96th Academy Awards. Following its critically-acclaimed opening over the weekend, Oppenheimer became the Best Picture betting favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Christopher Nolan’s film about the man who created the atomic bomb exceeded box office expectations on opening weekend, taking in $80.5 million from 3,610 theatres in the U.S. and Canada. The film’s initial box office projections were around $30-40 million.

The table below displays the updated 2024 Best Picture odds. In subsequent sections, find our analysis of Oppenheimer’s Oscar chances.

96th Academy Awards – 2024 Best Picture Odds

Film Odds
Oppenheimer +150
Killers of the Flower Moon +450
Past Lives +800
Maestro +1000
Anatomy of a Fall +1100
Lee +1200
Dune Part Two +1200
The Color Purple +1200
The Killer +1600
Asteroid City +1600

Odds as of July 24th, 2023 at DraftKings Sportsbook.  Claim a DraftKings promo code to make a Best Picture prediction. 


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The updated Best Picture odds imply that Oppenheimer (+150) has a 40% chance to win the Oscar. Nolan’s main competition is currently Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, which releases in theatres on October 6th, 2023.

Oppenheimer Becomes Best Picture Favorite

Oppenheimer entered the July 21st weekend as the second-betting choice to win Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars. By the time the weekend was over, Oppenheimer had become the clear favorite to take home the Academy Award.

DraftKings Sportsbook, one of the most popular and respected betting sites in North America, adjusted their 2024 Best Picture odds following Oppnehimer’s critically-acclaimed release. They initially gave the film +750 odds to win Best Picture back in June, but have since shortened those odds to +150.

In the span of approximately a month, Oppenheimer has gone from an 11.8% chance to win Best Picture to a 40% chance, according to the betting market. Bettors should be mindful, however, that Killers of the Flowers Moon has yet to release in theatres, and could experience a similar odds shift if it opens to overwhelming critical praise.

The 2024 Oscars don’t take place until March 10th, 2024, so there’s plenty of time for new films to emerge as challengers to Oppenheimer. Last year’s Best Picture winner, Everything Everywhere All at Once, wasn’t even on most sportsbook’s radars before becoming a heavy favorite in the months leading up to the ceremony.

Should You Bet Oppenheimer to Win Best Picture?

Oppenheimer is an incredible cinematic achievement and quite possibly Nolan’s best film of his career. It may seem like the film is a lock to sweep the 96th Academy Awards, but it’s simply too early to put down any serious money on the film to win Best Picture.

Nolan has received two previous Oscar Best Picture nominations for Inception and Dunkirk, coming up short each time. Could 2024 be the year that Nolan actually takes home the hardware? We could see Oppenheimer taking home some acting awards, but winning Best Picture is a tall task.

According to The Oscar Expert, a YouTube channel that covers the Oscar race thoroughly during the year, they have Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives as the top-two favorites in their June Oscar rankings. Following Oppenheimer’s release, they gave praise specifically to the film’s musical score and Robert Downey Jr.’s performance as a supporting actor.

Regarding a potential Best Picture win, the Oscar Expert suggests that the film might be too dry for some and certainly isn’t a feel-good movie. This is noteworthy because recent Best Picture winners have made moviegoers feel uplifting and positive.

Oppenheimer is certainly capable of winning Best Picture, but considering we’re almost 10 months out from the ceremony, there’s no need to rush out and make a bet. If anything, all this Oppenheimer hype actually puts some value on Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives at longer prices in the Best Picture odds.


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