Politics Odds: Trump’s Cabinet Options

A couple of days ago, Donald Trump tweeted:

Very organized process taking place as I decide on Cabinet and many other positions. I am the only one who knows who the finalists are!

But that hasn’t quelled the speculation. Trump will be the first U.S president that has never held elected office or served in the military. He will have less experience, and thus be more reliant on his cabinet, than any president in US history. And with Trump being characteristically vague on policy, his choice of cabinet will provide a pretty clear idea of what a Trump presidency will look like.

Let’s look at the odds for the major posts.

Secretary of State

Up until recently, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani looked set for the Secretary of State position. The tough-on-crime politician had been a loyal Trump surrogate throughout the primaries and general election.

But now Mitt Romney has entered the mix. He is a more conventional choice than Giuliani and a lot more popular within the Republican establishment.

Bob Corker and rising star Nikki Haley are also up for consideration.

Odds On Who Will Be Secretary of State:

Rudy Giuliani: 3/2

Mitt Romney: 4/1

Bob Corker: 9/1

Nikki Haley: 19/1

Attorney General

Rumor has it that Trump has already offered Senator Jeff Sessions the Attorney General position. Sessions is one of the most conservative members of government, and is a strong advocate of a national amendment to ban same-sex marriage.

Rudy Giuliani is also up for consideration, again. Surprisingly, so is once bitter foe Ted Cruz. But he’s a longshot, in my view. 

Odds on Who Will Be Attorney General:

Jeff Sessions: 1/9

Rudy Giuliani: 19/1

Ted Cruz: 99/1

Chief of Staff

Though not set in stone, Trump has already named RNC Chairman Reince Priebus as Chief of Staff and conservative media owner Steve Bannon as Chief Strategist. This will pit two sides of the Republican Party — the conservative establishment and the Alt-right — against each other.

But Trump has shown a lot of contempt for the Republican establishment in the past, and may revert on his decision and instead appoint Steve Bannon.  

Trump’s former campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, is also in the running.

Odds On Who Will Be Chief Of Staff:

Reince Priebus: 1/9

Corey Lewandowski: 19/1

Steve Bannon: 49/1

Photo credit: “Steve Bannon” by Don Irvine, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.