German Super Cup Betting – Bayern Battle Borussia

Bayern Munich (+120) at Borussia Dortmund (+225), Draw (+245); handicap: Bayern (-0.5)

On Sunday, Germany’s version of the “Super Cup” – which pits the winner of the Bundesliga against the DFB-Pokal champion – will continue the build-up to the real 2016-17 soccer season. “But wait,” you’re saying, “Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal. Are they going to play in intrasquad game?” Fortunately not. As the Bundesliga runners-up, Borussia Dortmund will get the honor of battling the Bavarian powerhouse at Signal-Iduna-Park in Dortmund (Sunday, August 14, at 2:30 PM Eastern).

Sunday’s game will be a rematch of the 2013 and 2014 Super Cups. Dortmund came out on top in both, including an impressive 2-0 win two years ago. Bayern followed that up with a third straight Super Cup setback last season, falling to Wolfsburg.

Dortmund should be just as strong this year as they were last if they can stay healthy. The team added midfielder Mario Gotze, who spent the last three seasons with Bayern, along with André Schürrle, formerly of Chelsea and, most recently, Wolfsburg. Gotze and Schürrle will join an offense that already includes Marco Reus and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Aubameyang’s 25 Bundesliga goals were only outpaced by Robert Lewandowski’s 30 for Bayern Munich.

We’re not going to see just how dynamic the full offense can be this weekend, though, as Reus – the key cog in the Dortmund midfield – is still recovering from an adductor injury he suffered in the DFB-Pokal final in May.

Bayern won’t be fielding their best roster either, though. Douglas Costa, Arjen Robben, and Jerome Boateng will both sit out Sunday’s match with various muscle ailments. They’ll be joined on the shelf by Renato Sanches and Holger Badstuber, and likely Xabi Alonso as well.

Franck Ribery could be available as he has largely recovered from an adductor issue.

Since the 2014 Super Cup, Dortmund haven’t had much success against the Bavarians. They lost both 2015 meetings in the Bundesliga, including a 5-1 thrashing, and then fell on penalties in last year’s Pokal final. But Bayern never takes the Super Cup too seriously and won’t have anything close to its full squad out there on Sunday. They’ll also be playing in hostile territory. A Dortmund win (+225) is better value than a Bayern win, but the draw (+245) is my preference.

Pick: Draw (+245). 

(Photo Credit: André Zehetbauer (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].)