2020 CJ Cup at Shadow Creek Sleepers and Longshot Picks

• The 2020-21 PGA Tour season continues Thursday (Oct. 15) at Shadow Creek, in Las Vegas, Nevada
•  Abraham Ancer finished 4th last week, shooting 67 or better in all four rounds
• Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

The PGA Tour will tee it up in Las Vegas for the second straight week on Thursday (Oct. 15), this time at Shadow Creek. The course is best known for hosting “The Match” between Tiger and Phil last year, but has never hosted a PGA event.

Last week at the Shiners Hospitals for Children Open, Martin Laird took home the trophy after going off as a 225-1 longshot, and we’ll be looking for a sleeper of our own this week to help pad our bankroll.

CJ Cup at Shadown Creek Odds

Odds taken Oct. 12th at DraftKings.

Abraham is the Ancer

Our first target will be Abraham Ancer, who flashed some serious form at the Shriners, finishing fourth. Ancer, who’s still looking for his maiden PGA Tour title, shot 67 or better in all four rounds, racking up 25 birdies along the way.

Solo 4th @ShrinersOpen 👌🏻

Looking forward to next week's event at Shadow Creek in Vegas #TeamAncer pic.twitter.com/5bUoFZb5fb

— Abraham Ancer (@Abraham_Ancer) October 12, 2020

An immaculate ball striker, Ancer ranked fifth in driving accuracy last week (78.57%), and 15th in greens in regulation (80.56%). That kind of precision will come in handy at Shadow Creek, which projects to be a much tougher venue than what the pros have seen over the last few weeks.

Ancer is also an excellent Par-4 scorer, ranking 25th in this field. He’s especially proficient on holes ranging between 400-450 yards, ranking second, which is good news since this course features four holes within that distance.

Pick: Abraham Ancer to win outright (+4500)

Henley’s Irons are Red-Hot

What if I told you that the best approach player in this field over the last six months is not Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm or Rory McIlroy, but rather Russell Henley.

158 yards out.
Behind a tree.
In the rough.
In a divot.

Russell Henley and his caddie had their work cut out for them with this approach but took the time to get it right. pic.twitter.com/UJMaGVFd3R

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 14, 2020

The three-time winner on Tour has gained strokes on approach in eight straight events, outpacing the field by at least 3 shots with his irons in four of his last five starts. He’s racked up three top-10 finishes during that stretch, and was on his way to another T-10 last week until a final round 70 derailed him.

Russell Henley Key Stats – Last 4 Starts

Just like Ancer, Henley hit a ridiculous 80.56% of the greens in regulation last week, but was hindered by a poor putting performance. His iron game is off the charts, and if the putting can even hover around neutral, he has top-10 and top-5 upside.

Pick: Russell Henley top-10 finish (+600)

Steele Striking it Well

Don’t let the MC beside Brendan Steele’s name last week fool you. The three-time Tour winner gained strokes in every key metric except putting, and missed the absurd -7 cutine by a single stroke.

Four birdies on his opening nine.@Brendan_Steele is tied for the lead.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/ogIzil6lzc

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) September 10, 2020

Steele has now gained strokes tee-to-green in eight straight events, and last week’s MC was the only blemish on his resume during that stretch.

Since the restart, he ranks eighth in the field in strokes gained approach, and his elite off-the-tee game should set him up for success at Shadow Creek.

This course measures over 7,500 yards and features four Par-5’s that players will need to take advantage of. That shouldn’t be an issue for Steele who’s an excellent Par-5 scorer, ranking 25th in this field on holes longer that 550 yards.

Pick: Brendan Steele top-20 finish (+350)