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2021 PGA Tour Valspar Championship Odds and Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Apr 26, 2021 · 6:03 AM PDT

Paul Casey
Paul Casey tees off on the eighth hole during the final round of the Valspar Championship golf tournament Sunday, March 24, 2019, in Palm Harbor, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)
  • The Valspar Championship from Palm Harbor, FL tees off Thursday, April 29th
  • Justin Thomas is the +800 favorite over Dustin Johnson
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

One week after we nailed the winning tandem of Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, the PGA Tour heads to Florida for the demanding Valspar Championship. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club is a tricky test, where ball striking will be at an all time premium.

Six of the last seven champions have been no better than ten-under-par for the week. The final three holes are known as ‘the snake pit’ proving a demanding challenge for the world’s best.

This track is always one of the more difficult ones on the PGA Tour, with it ranking as the third toughest in 2019. Close calls are the norm for this championship, with eleven of the last 13 champions winning by just a single shot or in a playoff, with the two exceptions being two shot victories.

Justin Thomas heads the list of competitors, and he’s one of four players in the top 10 world rankings competing, joined by Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed and Tyrrell Hatton. Paul Casey returns as the two-time defending champion, having won by one stroke in each of the last two iterations.

2021 Valspar Championship Odds

Golfers Odds at FanDuel
Justin Thomas +800
Dustin Johnson +1000
Paul Casey +2000
Patrick Reed +2000
Viktor Hovland +2000
Tyrrell Hatton +2500
Corey Conners +2600
Scottie Scheffler +2800
Louis Oosthuizen +3100
Sungjae Im +3100
Abraham Ancer +3300
Joaquin Niemann +3300
Bubba Watson +3700
Jason Kokrak +3700
Russell Henley +3700
Cameron Tringale +3700
Justin Rose +4000
Chris Kirk +4500
Charley Hoffman +4500
Kevin Na +5000

Odds as of April 26th

Corey Conners Has Been on a Tear

Not many golfers can boast Corey Conners’ tremendous record in his last five stroke play events. His results in that time frame are as follows: 3rd, 7th, T-14th, T-8th and T-4th. Unsurprisingly, over the course of the last 36 rounds on the PGA Tour, the Canadian has been dynamite in key strokes gained categories.

Corey Conners’ Strokes Gained Stats In Last 36 Rounds

Total Tee-to-Green Ball Striking Off-the-Tee Approach Short Game Putting
1 1 1 3 4 29 32

Putting, which has long been Conners’ downfall, has significantly improved of late, as he’s gained strokes on the greens in his last five events. He’s sixth in greens in regulation and ninth in strokes gained tee-to-green on the campaign.

In his lone appearance at the Valspar, Conners held the 54-hole lead in 2018, before a tough Sunday dropped him to a tie for 16th. That was the first time in the hunt on tour, and he’s progressed exponentially since then. With +2600 odds, you’re getting the 2019 Valero Texas Open champion at better value than six other golfers.

Last Five Valspar Championship Winners

Year Winner
2019 Paul Casey (1 shot win)
2018 Paul Casey (1 shot win)
2017 Adam Hadwin (1 shot win)
2016 Charl Schwartzel (playoff over Bill Haas)
2015 Jordan Spieth (playoff over Patrick Reed and Sean O’Hair)

2021 Valspar Championship Best Value Picks

  1. Jason Kokrak (+3700): Jason Kokrak has been playing very solidly, with three straight top-10’s in stroke play events before his middling Masters result. He’s also had success at Innisbrook, finishing T-2nd in 2019, T-8th in 2018 and T-7th in 2015. First in strokes gained tee-to-green at this track in last 24 rounds.
  2. Justin Rose (+4000): Justin Rose has racked up five career top-15’s at the Valspar, including a T-5 in his most recent outing in 2018. In the last 24 rounds at this tournament, he’s first in total strokes gained and second in SG: tee-to-green. In three of his last five worldwide starts, he has runner-up, seventh place and a T-11 showings.
  3. Henrik Stenson (+10000): Long shot with huge upside. Has figured out his game after a prolonged slump, putting together a respectable Masters and was T-11 at the Zurich Classic. Loves this championship, where he had 4th-T-11th, T-7th showings three consecutive years from 2015-17. First in strokes gained approach, third in total SG and fourth tee-to-green in last 24 rounds at this venue.
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