Dustin Johnson’s U.S. Open Odds Remain +900 After Winning 2020 PGA Tour Championship

• Dustin Johnson finished 1st, 2nd, 1st in the three FedExCup Playoff events
• Xander Schauffele is the only top-10 contender who saw his U.S. Open odds shortened
• Read below for analysis on whether DJ or Schauffele’s U.S. Open price presents strong value

Dustin Johnson is your 2020 FedExCup champion. DJ shot a final round 68 on Monday at the Tour Championship to claim the title and the biggest paycheque of the season. He collects $15 million for winning his first career FedExCup and you won’t hear anyone say he doesn’t deserve it.

Adding to his legacy. 🏆@DJohnsonPGA has won the #FedExCup with a victory @PlayoffFinale! pic.twitter.com/cHeNjwHOdB

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) September 7, 2020

Johnson was absolutely incredible in the three playoff events, finishing 1st, 2nd and 1st. The victory at East Lake was the 23rd of his hall-of-fame career, but despite his most recent success his odds for the year’s second Major did not change.

2020 U.S. Open Odds

Odds taken Sept. 7th.

That’s because they were already shortened to +900 following his victory at the Northern Trust, and it’s hard to justify anyone being priced shorter than that at a Major, unless it’s Tiger Woods in his prime.

The only top-10 contender in the U.S. Open odds whose price was shortened was Xander Schauffele, who finished the Tour Championship with the lowest 72-hole score.

DJ Delivers Again

Monday marked DJ’s seventh victory at a FedExCup Playoffs event, two more than anyone else. He started the day with a five shot lead, and although both Schauffele and Justin Thomas closed the gap to three on the front nine, a win for Johnson was never really in doubt.

Final four finishes on the season for DJ:
T2
1st
2nd
1st

A deserving #FedExCup Champion. 🏆 pic.twitter.com/l4PmOcLlQF

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) September 7, 2020

He’s the first number one seed at the Tour Championship to win the FedExCup since Tiger in 2009, and he did so after beginning the restart ranked 111th in the standings.

Dustin Johnson Strokes Gained Ranks since Restart

Since play resumed in June, DJ ranks first in the field in ball striking, third in strokes gained approach and tee-to-green, and 12th in putting. His game profiles perfectly for any U.S. Open set-up which explains why he’s had so much success at that Major in the past.

He won at Oakmont in 2016 and should have won at Chambers Bay the year before if not for a brutal three-putt on the 72nd hole. He finished 3rd at Shinnecock Hills in 2018 and 4th at Pinehurst in 2014.

Super pumped to finally win the FedEx Cup. Thank you to my team and supporters! My brother Austin, all the fans, @TaylorMadeGolf, @DJGolfSchool, @netjets, @Hublot, @adidasGolf, @RBC, @DrinkBODYARMOR.

A little rest and then prep time for Winged Foot. pic.twitter.com/UHDcloP1xV

— Dustin Johnson (@DJohnsonPGA) September 7, 2020

He’s the most deserving favorite we’ve seen at a Major in quite some time but laying +900 on him in a sport as volatile as golf is awfully hard to do, especially when a handful of other players with longer odds are playing nearly as well.

Schauffele Stripes it at Tour Championship

One of those players is Xander Schauffele, whose second place finish this week prompted online sportsbooks to shorten his U.S. Open price from +2000 to +1600. Schauffele led the field at East Lake with 21 birdies, and finished first in total strokes gained.

Year 4 in the books. Gave DJ a run down the stretch but he held on – congrats on the win

Back to work at the U.S. Open in a couple weeks pic.twitter.com/4TrFNDliLB

— Xander Schauffele (@XSchauffele) September 7, 2020

Much like DJ, Schauffele owns a stellar track record at the U.S. Open and although he’s yet to win, he’s finished 3rd, 6th and 5th in his only three starts. He’s finished 5th or better in four of his 12 Major Championship appearances overall, and has been arguably the most consistent performer at East Lake since 2017.

Fighting until the end.@XSchauffele is just 2 back with 2 to play. pic.twitter.com/uL0icjiM3D

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) September 7, 2020

Xander has now finished 7th or better at the Tour Championship in four straight years and has a game that suits any style of course. He’s one of the game’s premier drivers of the golf ball and is a wizard on and around the greens. He gained 8.5 strokes putting this week, and ranks seventh in strokes gained short game since the restart. That looks like a recipe for success at Winged Foot and the +1600 price tag is reasonable given how well he’s playing.

Don’t Sleep on Scheffler

Last week we identified Joaquin Niemann as a strong value at +10000 and this week we’ll focus on Scottie Scheffler. The 2019 Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year capped a memorable playoff run with a fifth place finish at the Tour Championship, and a nice little payday.

A year ago, Scottie Scheffler was getting ready to start his rookie season. Today he picks up $2.5 million for finishing 5th at East Lake.

— Doug Ferguson (@dougferguson405) September 7, 2020

He’s finished fifth or better in three of his last four starts and ranks fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green since the restart. He flirted with the lead for most of the PGA Championship before finishing 4th, and at +5000 he’ll definitely make my U.S. Open card.