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Francesco Molinari’s 2019 PGA Championship Odds Get Big Boost From Strong Masters Showing

Francesco Molinari
Francesco Molinari is now one of the top betting favorites to win the 2019 PGA Championship. Photo by Marie-Lan Nguyen (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Francesco Molinari nearly won the Masters for his second career major
  • His odds to win the PGA Championship in May have improved significantly
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Despite a stunning collapse at the Masters, where Francesco Molinari rinsed two balls in the water en route to disappointing fifth place finish, his PGA Championship odds have seen a big boost.

The cool, calm, and collected Italian’s odds have gone from an average of +3200 to +1700 after that strong showing. Is the 2018 Open Champion worth a wager now?

2019 PGA Championship Odds

Golfer 2019 PGA Championship Odds at Bovada
Tiger Woods +700
Dustin Johnson +900
Rory McIlroy +1000
Brooks Koepka +1200
Justin Thomas +1200
Francesco Molinari +1600
Justin Rose +1600
Jon Rahm +2000
Rickie Fowler +2000
Bryson DeChambeau +2000

*Odds taken 04/16/19. Follow the link in the table above to see all betting options.

Francesco Molinari Continues Torrid Play

A lot can change in a year – at this point in 2018 Molinari was a steady respectable golfer with four European Tour (and zero PGA Tour) titles to his credit with two Ryder Cup appearances (2010, 2012).

Fast forward a year and he’s won a Claret Jug at the 2018 Open Championship, added two other PGA Tour titles to his credit (2018 Quicken Loans National, 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational), and had a sparkling 5-0 record at the 2018 Ryder Cup in France.

The sting of losing a lead on the final nine holes of the Masters notwithstanding, he’s getting better and better on the biggest stages.

Francesco Molinari’s Tournament Results this Season

Tournament Result
The Masters T-5th
WGC-Dell Match Play 3rd
The Players Championship T-56th
Arnold Palmer Invitational WIN
WGC-Mexico Championship T-17th
Sentry Tournament of Champions T-27th
WGC-HSBC Champions T-43rd

Prior to the 2017 PGA Championship, he posted just two top-10 finishes in 32 career majors, and now he has four in his last six major championships. Not only that, he’s figured out how to play well at PGA Championship venues.

Molinari’s Last 5 PGA Championship Results

Year Result
2018 T-6th
2017 T-2nd
2016 T-22nd
2015 T-54th
2014 T-58th

Are there only five other golfers better than him to win next month’s PGA Championship? His +1600 odds are an overreaction to him nearly snagging a green jacket. His strokes gained stats aren’t elite this season either – 100th off the tee, 137th approaching the green and 47th in total strokes gained.

The most prudent play would be to hold off wagering on Molinari now and see if a more popular player (Rickie Fowler orJon Rahm for example) play well leading up to the PGA, which will drive Molinari’s odds down to a more reasonable price.

The Best Value Bet to Win 2019 PGA Championship

It’s hard to believe that just one average result at the Masters (T-21st) has dropped Rory McIlroy to third favorite status. With the added benefit of not having the weight of attempting to win the career grand slam at the Masters, he should play more freely. After all, before the Masters, he had posted seven straight top-10’s on the PGA Tour this season.

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Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statisitician for the Jay and Dan Show. He has worked at TSN for over 13 years, where he's been featured on Sportscentre, That's Hockey, That's Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.