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John Deere Classic Odds to Make the Cut Odds Plus H2H Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Jul 4, 2023 · 6:41 PM PDT

Patrick Rodgers post round reaction.
Mar 31, 2023; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Patrick Rodgers leaves the 18th green following his round during the second round of the Valero Texas Open golf tournament. Rodgers shot a 5-under 67 and has the clubhouse lead of -11 for the tournament, Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
  • Make the cut odds are live for the John Deere Classic which tees off on Thursday, July 6
  • Patrick Rodgers has lost strokes on approach in five of his last six starts
  • Don’t miss the complete list of John Deere Classic make and miss the cut odds, plus a H2H matchup pick to target

The PGA Tour season rolls on this week, with another birdie fest on deck at the John Deere Classic. The winning score has reached at least minus-20 in 10 of the past 13 years, and the 2023 edition is expected to follow suit.

You might think that the lack of star power could keep the winning number below that, however the level of talent of even the bottom-tier Tour players is simply too good for that to happen.

Last week’s cutline at the Rocket Mortgage Classic hit minus-4, and a similar number at the JDC is expected. That will put a major emphasis on scoring, and the course set up will also reward excellent wedge players and putters.

One golfer who’s struggling in those categories is Patrick Rodgers, which is one of the reasons we’re banking on him to miss the cut this week.

John Deere Classic Make the Cut Odds

Golfer Odds to Make the Cut Odds to Miss the Cut
Denny McCarthy -500 +350
Russell Henley -500 +350
Cameron Young -340 +250
Ludvig Aberg -340 +250
Stephan Jaeger -340 +250
Patrick Rodgers -340 +225
Adam Hadwin -310 +210
Taylor Moore -310 +210
Adam Schenk -310 +210
Eric Cole -295 +190
Emiliano Grillo -295 +190
Seamus Power -295 +190
Keith Mitchell -295 +190
Chris Kirk -275 +190
Christian Bezuidenhout -250 +175
Nick Taylor -250 +175
Sepp Straka -225 +160
Mark Hubbard -225 +160
Ryan Palmer -210 +150
Chez Reavie -210 +150
Sam Ryder -210 +150
Adam Svensson -195 +140
Matt Kuchar -195 +140

Rodgers odds to trunk slam currently sit at +225, which is extremely attractive given his recent form. Pre-tournament favorite Denny McCarthy has the longest odds to miss the cut this week, along with Russell Henley.

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Plenty of Reasons to Fade Rodgers

Rodgers missed the cut in his previous start at the Travellers Championship, while an injury forced him to withdraw in Detroit last week.

There’s no injury report on the PGA Tour, so while we can’t be sure how serious the issue is, the uncertainty of his health is a strike against him.

A bigger red flag, is his recent ball striking numbers. Rodgers has lost strokes off the tee in three consecutive events, and with his irons in five of his past six tournaments. He ranks well below average in wedge proximity in this field, and outside he top-38 in two of the three key putting categories.

Finally, Rodgers has been playing his best golf on tougher tracks this season, not at birdie fests. He gains an average of 0.4 strokes per round on the field on difficult courses, as opposed to less than 0.1 strokes on easy layouts.

Pick: Patrick Rodgers to Miss the Cut (+274)

Make the Cut Parlay

We’re down on Rodgers, but there’s a handful of golfers we are interested in that we’ll feature in our make the cut parlay. Eric Cole headlines the list, as his recent performance is too good to ignore.

Cole ranks second in the field in scoring over the last 50 rounds, and seventh in strokes gained approach. He excels in the key wedge proximity distances, and is a top-10 putter. He’s also dominated weak field events this season, posting top-six finishes in Canada, Mexico and at the Honda Classic.

Next, we’ll add Emiliano Grillo. He’s three starts removed from a victory, and finished second at the John Deere Classic last year. Grillo is one of the best ball strikers on the planet, and ranks 14th in scoring over the past 50 rounds.

We’ll round out the wager with Chris Kirk and Sam Ryder. Kirk came back to life last week in Detroit, gaining six strokes with his irons. He ranks ninth in scoring over the last 50 rounds, and won the Honda Classic earlier this year, which was another easy field event.

As for Ryder, he sports some of the best wedge and putting numbers in the field. He’s also four-for-four in cuts made at this tournament over his career, including a T-2 finish in 2018.

Pick: Make the Cut Parlay (+274)

Poston vs Lee H2H Matchup

Shifting gears to the 72-hole head-to-head matchup category, where we find a pair of struggling golfers. Both J.T. Poston and K-H Lee have been trunk slamming often lately, with Lee looking absolutely lost at the moment.

He’s missed the cut in three consecutive tournaments, and has one finish better than 50th since early May. Lee’s lost at least 1.5 shots with his ball striking in each of his recent missed cuts, and over 4 strokes tee-to-green in two of those outings. He’s also 0-for-1 in made cuts at this event, while Poston is the defending champ.

Poston vs Lee H2H Odds

Team Moneyline
J.T. Poston -120
K-H Lee +100

Not much has gone right for Poston in 2023, but we’re banking on him finding his game at a course he dominated at last year. Poston didn’t card a bogey at the JDC in 2022, on his way to a three-stroke victory.

Wedge play and putting are the strengths of his game, as are easy courses. Poston gains an average of 0.6 strokes on the field on easy tracks, while Lee loses strokes to the field on those types of courses.

Pick: Poston Over Lee (-120)

 

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