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Justin Rose Favored to Win US Open After Round 1; Koepka +750 To Three-Peat

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 6:32 PM PDT

Justin Rose
Justiin Rose leads the U.S. Open after firing an opening round 65 (Flickr) [CC License].
  • Justin Rose is favored to win the US Open after an opening round 65
  • Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy have the second shortest odds, while Tiger Woods is lurking
  • See the live odds entering Friday at the US Open

Justin Rose is your leader after Round 1 at the US Open, but some of the biggest names in golf are within striking distance, including two-defending champion Brooks Kopeka, Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods.

Live 2019 US Open Odds

Golfer Position Score Rounds Odds
Justin Rose 1 -6 65 +550
Rickie Fowler T-2 -5 66 +900
Xander Schaufflele T-2 -5 66 +900
Louis Oosthuizen T-2 -5 66 +2000
Aaron Wise T-2 -5 66 +3300
Scott Piercy T-6 -4 67 +6600
Nate Lashley T-6 -4 67 +15000
Rory McIlroy T-8 -3 68 +750
Henrik Stenson T-8 -3 68 +3300
Gary Woodland T-8 -3 68 +4000
Chez Reavie T-8 -3 68 +6600
Emiliano Grillo T-8 -3 68 +8000
Chesson Hadley T-8 -3 68 +15000
Sepp Straka T-8 -3 68 +25000
Brooks Koepka T-16 -2 69 +750
Tiger Woods T-28 -1 70 +1200

*Odds taken June 13 at 10pm EST

Koepka was six shots off the lead after Round 1 at this tournament last year before a 66 in Round 2 vaulted him up the leaderboard.

His live US Open odds are roughly the same now as when the tournament started, but the lack of a price discount makes him a fade for me.

The Top of the Board

Justin Rose may headline the first page of the leaderboard, but he’s actually an easy pass for me. His ball striking was abysmal Thursday, ranking 105th in strokes gained approach and 57th off the tee.

If not for an insane short game that saw him gain a tournament best 6.2 strokes putting, he’d be nowhere near the lead, and I’m willing to bet we see some severe regression on Friday.

If choosing from the top favorites, Rickie Fowler stands out to me at +900. He hit 83% of his greens in regulation in Round 1, and led the field in strokes gained ball striking and tee to green.

He has three career runner-up finishes at Majors and this could be the week that he finally sheds the label of being one of the best players on Tour to never win a Major.

Molinari Will Make Noise

Outside of Fowler, no one struck it better on Thursday than Francesco Molinari.

The reigning Open champion ranked second in strokes gained ball striking, second in strokes gained tee to green and third in approach. While Folwer was also able to gain strokes putting, Molinari lost half a stroke on the greens.

But if he continues to strike it as pure as he did in Round 1 the putts will eventually drop. He’s won three times in the last year, and +1800 seems incredibly fair for a player with his winning upside.

Best Live Value Picks at the U.S Open

  1. Henrik Stenson (+3300): Death, taxes and Henrik Stenson firing at pins. The Tour leader in strokes gained approach is dialed in again this week, ranking 2nd in that key stat after Round 1. He’s gained at least 4.4 strokes with his approaches in each of his last six events and it’s only a matter of time before he wins.
  2. Jon Rahm (+3300): He excels playing in California with 6 top-10’s in the state over the last three years including two victories. He ranks third in strokes gained tee to green through 18 holes and is one the best birdie makers in the game
  3. Chez Reavie (+6600): He’s one of only three players after Round 1 to be inside the top-20 in both strokes gained approach and off the tee, and has had success at Pebble Beach in the past with a second place finish at the AT&T Pro-Am last year.
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