Lowry Narrow Favorite Despite 4-Shot Lead Heading Into Final Round of Open Championship

• Shane Lowry shot 63 in Round 3 and holds a 4-shot lead entering the final round
• Tommy Fleetwood will be paired with Lowry; he sits at -12, two shots clear of J.B. Holmes who is in 3rd place
• Tee times have been moved an hour earlier with extremely bad weather expected at Royal Portrush tomorrow
  

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Irishman Shane Lowry has a 4-shot lead entering the final round of the Open Championship.

He earned the cushion thanks to a record-setting performance of 8-under, 63 at Royal Portrush. If he can hold on and capture the Claret Jug, it will be the first major of his career.

Open Championship Odds

*odds taken 7/20/19

The Open Championship Odds will move a lot during tomorrow’s final round but that’s where they sit with 18 holes to play. The -150 price point attached to Lowry is offering considerable value. There are big names behind him on the board, but a four shot cushion is still a  four shot cushion. Coming off a 63 it’s entirely reasonable to expect Lowry to win his first major tomorrow and you don’t need to give up much to bet it.

Shane Lowry will take a four shot lead going into the final round. ✍?#TheOpen pic.twitter.com/UbHq4bgpjS

— The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) July 20, 2019

If you want to fade the favorite, here is the case for two other golfers on the board who could be worth a look considering their current long-shot odds.

Will Bad Weather Help Brooks Koepka?

Tee times are already being adjusted with poor weather expected to hit Royal Portrush around 11am local time. Even after pushing the start an hour earlier, players will be forced to play at least nine holes in heavy winds and likely heavy rains. What do you need to combat those conditions? Strength. Who has more of that than anyone in the game? Brooks Koepka.

Not an exaggeration to say that Koepka would be up by 20 if he could make some putts.

— Ryan Lavner (@RyanLavnerGC) July 20, 2019

Koepka has been let down by the putter this week but if he can straighten that out I wouldn’t want to bet against him on the back nine tomorrow. He enters needing to make up seven shots, which is obviously significant, but that’s why you can get +1000 odds. I like the world No. 1’s chances to at least make things interesting late, which is all you need when the wind starts blowing sideways tomorrow afternoon.

Can Fleetwood Take Advantage if Lowry Stumbles?

Shane Lowry has held a 4-shot lead heading into the final round of a major once before. At Oakmont in 2016 he blew the cushion with Dustin Johnson, the eventual champion of the U.S. Open. Should those memories come back to haunt Lowry, Fleetwood is in the best position to take advantage. He’s two clear of J.B. Holmes who sits in third place and three ahead of Koepka and Justin Rose.

The swing of @TommyFleetwood1 is a thing of beauty ?️‍♂️#TheOpen pic.twitter.com/HALQu5hlyK

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 20, 2019

While a four shot deficit is a sizeable number, it’s much easier to erase when there’s only one player to catch. Fleetwood is gunning for his first major as well but is widely considered a good bet to capture one some day soon. Could tomorrow be the day if the weather causes for a wild afternoon?

Final Verdict

Ignore silly bets like ‘the field’ and focus on the top of the leaderboard. I believe Lowry has a great chance to win and considering his odds as the favorite aren’t that high, he presents the best value. If you’re looking for some longer odds to make things interesting betting Koepka or Fleetwood could be a great bet, especially if the weather is as bad as they’re predicting tomorrow at Royal Portush.