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RBC Heritage Final Round Odds and Betting Preview; Webb Simpson +450 Favorite

RBC Heritage
Webb Simpson is looking to capture his second victory of the 2020 season on Sunday. Photo by @GolfCentral (Twitter).
  • Webb Simpson, Tyrrell Hatton, Abraham Ancer and Ryan Palmer share the 54-hole lead at the RBC Heritage
  • Ancer leads the field this week in strokes gained ball striking and is second in strokes gained tee-to-green
  • See the updated live odds at Harbour Town heading into Sunday’s final round

It’s shaping up to be a sensational finish at the RBC Heritage. Four golfers sit atop the leaderboard after 54 holes, including reigning API champ Tyrrell Hatton, and World No. 9 Webb Simpson.

Simpson began the third round with a one-stroke lead, but his 3-under par round could not separate him from the rest of the pack. That’s because several golfers caught lightning in a bottle, including Hatton and Abraham Ancer, who shot 63 and 65 respectively to grab a share of first.

Live RBC Heritage Odds

Golfer Position Score Odds
Webb Simpson T1 -15 +450
Tyrrell Hatton T1 -15 +550
Abraham Ancer T1 -15 +600
Ryan Palmer T1 -15 +1000
Daniel Berger T5 -14 +800
Joel Dahmen T5 -14 +1200
Carlos Ortiz T5 -14 +2800
Ian Poulter T8 -13 +1800
Matthew Fitzpatrick T8 -13 +1800
Sergio Garcia T8 -13 +2800
Corey Conners T8 -13 +2800
Joaquin Niemann T8 -13 +3300
Erik van Rooyen T8 -13 +3300
Bryson Dechambeau T16 -13 +1800
Dustin Johnson T16 -12 +2800
Brooks Koepka T16 -12 +3300

Odds taken June 20th.

Simpson is the betting favorite heading into Sunday, with slightly shorter odds than Hatton and Ancer. Webb won earlier this season in Phoenix, but was nowhere near as sharp Saturday as he had been in the opening two rounds. He hit just 55.56% of the greens in regulation, compared to 83.33% in the first round, and 72.2% in the second round.

Top of the Board

As someone currently holding a Simpson outright ticket at +2800, I’m optimistic he can close on Sunday but I won’t be doubling down at his current odds. He ranks sixth in strokes gained putting this week, but outside the top-20 in strokes gained ball striking and tee-to green.

Same goes for Hatton, who’s been even hotter with the putter. He’s gained a field best 8.039 strokes with the flat stick this week, but ranks outside the top-30 in ball striking, tee-to-green and around the green play. Sure his hot putter could continue for another day, but I’d rather target someone who is striping the ball.

Enter Ancer who leads the field this week in strokes gained ball striking and ranks second in strokes gained tee-to-green. He’s made seven birdies in back-to-back rounds and has shot 66 or better in four of his past seven competitive rounds.

Garcia’s Game is Coming Around

Speaking of elite ball strikers, the only person hitting it as well as Ancer this week is Sergio Garcia. The former Masters champ ranks second in strokes gained ball striking, first in strokes gained tee-to-green and seventh in around the green play. If not for an ice cold putter, he could be running away with this tournament.

He’s lost 4.9 strokes putting this week (no that’s not a typo) but still leads the field in birdies with 19. His current odds are quite favorable at +2800 especially considering he’s posted back-to-back 65’s, despite the awful play on the green. If he figures the putter out on Sunday look out.

Best Live Value Picks at RBC Heritage

  1. Carlos Ortiz (+2800): Seems mispriced given the fact he’s only a stroke off the lead. Ranks eighth in strokes gained tee-to-green through three rounds and is fresh off a bogey-free round of 63, that included two eagles.
  2. Dustin Johnson (+2800): After a disappointing showing last week, DJ has bounced back with three rounds of 68 or better at Harbour Town. He ranks first in strokes gained off the tee this week and 10th in ball striking. He was the 54-hole leader at this event last year, so you know a low number is in his range of outcomes.
  3. Joaquin Niemann (+3300): Was on 59 watch for the early part of Saturday, ranks fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green and sixth in strokes gained ball striking this week. He won earlier this season at the Greenbrier, and +3300 is too long a price tag for someone with his talent, who’s only two shots back.
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