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Rory McIlroy Remains Heavy Masters Favorite; Who Else Benefits from Move to November?

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Apr 11, 2020 · 7:50 AM PDT

Rory McIlroy is the favorite to win the 2020 Masters. Photo from Tour Pro Golf Clubs (Flickr)
  • The Masters has been postponed and tentatively set for November 12-15th
  • Does betting favorite Rory McIlroy benefit from the date change for the event?
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

Ordinarily the Masters would be underway by now and Rory McIlroy would’ve been in search of the last leg to the career grand slam. However, the Coronavirus pandemic has shifted the golfing landscape with Augusta National planning on hosting the event in the middle of November.

McIlroy was the betting favorite a month before the event until golf tournaments were cancelled, and almost assuredly would’ve been the top man to beat, despite never slipping into that elusive green jacket.

Will he benefit or be hindered from the change in the schedule and what players are providing good value to win the 84th edition of the Masters?

2020 Masters Odds

Golfer Odds
Rory McIlroy +700
Jon Rahm +1400
Brooks Koepka +1600
Justin Thomas +1600
Tiger Woods +1800
Dustin Johnson +1800
Bryson DeChambeau +2800
Xander Schauffele +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Patrick Cantlay +2800
Patrick Reed +2800
Adam Scott +3300
Rickie Fowler +3300
Tommy Fleetwood +3300
Bubba Watson +4000
Jordan Spieth +4000
Justin Rose +4500
Matt Kuchar +4500
Tony Finau +4500
Jason Day +5000

Odds taken April 10th.

Rory McIlroy Seemingly Hampered by Date Change

You’d have been hard pressed to find any golfer in the world playing as consistently well as McIlroy has been for a number of months and he undoubtedly would’ve head into the Masters as the odds-on favorite following a string of phenomenal tournaments. If and when the Masters is played in November, there’s a solid chance the Ulsterman will still be playing well because of his otherworldly talent, but there are no guarantees of that.

Who am I to argue, however, against Jack Nicklaus — the golfer with the most career major titles? Rory has won the Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta twice in his career, so he does have form later in the calendar and in the same state where the Masters is played. Simply going off his prior form before golf was canceled shows that he would’ve strolled down Magnolia Lane on a heater.

Rory McIlroy’s Last Seven Events

Tournament Result
Arnold Palmer Invitational T-5th
WGC-Mexico Championship 5th
Genesis Invitational T-5th
Farmers Insurance Open T-3rd
DP World Tour Championship 4th
WGC-HSBC Champions WIN
Zozo Championship T-3rd

Justin Rose Sporting Very Enticing Odds

Outside of last year’s mind-boggling missed cut at the Masters, there haven’t been many players who have taken apart Augusta National as well as Justin Rose in recent memory. The closest he came was in 2017 when he lost a heartbreaker in a playoff to Sergio Garcia. The reason Rose’s odds have dropped substantially to +4500 is because of some rather uncharacteristic poor play in his last four events (three missed cuts and a tie for 56th). The Englishmen has time on his side to right the ship by November.

Justin Rose’s Best Career Masters Finishes

Year Result
2017 2nd
2015 T-2nd
2007 T-5th
2012 T-8th
2016 T-10th

His odds are simply too good at the moment for bettors to shy away from him. This is the time to pounce on that juicy +4500 number because if he plays well once golf comes back, especially given his success at the Masters, those odds will drop precipitously.

Last Five Masters Champions

Year Winner
2019 Tiger Woods
2018 Patrick Reed
2017 Sergio Garcia
2016 Danny Willett
2015 Jordan Spieth

2020 Masters Best Value Picks

  1. Brooks Koepka (+1600): Wagering on Brooks Koepka at any major championship is an auto bet, without question. All he’s done is win four of the last 10 he’s competed in, and in 2019 his results in the biggest events was a sparkling T-2nd (at the Masters), win at the PGA, 2nd at the US Open, and T-4th at the Open Championship.
  2. Xander Schauffele (+2800): Also finished in a tie for second along with Koepka at last year’s Masters to Tiger Woods. In Schauffele’s last seven major championships, he has four top-six finishes, with a T-2nd at the 2018 Open, T-3rd at the 2019 US Open, and T-6th at the 2018 US Open in addition to that T-2nd at the Masters last year.
  3. Jordan Spieth (+4000): The downturn in his game is absolutely stunning the last couple of seasons, but the long break off might just be what the doctor ordered for the three-time major winner. Spieth makes Augusta National his personal playground, even if the collapse in the 2016 might still haunt him. In six all-time appearances, he has a victory, a pair of runner-ups, a third place result, a T-11th and last year a tie for 21st.
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