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Tommy Fleetwood Now Favored to Win 2019 Race to Dubai

Tommy Fleetwood
Tommy Fleetwood is narrowly favored to win the 2019 European Tour Race to Dubai. (Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire)
  • Tommy Fleetwood is the betting favorite to win the 2019 European Tour Race to Dubai
  • Should Bryson DeChambeau be favored over Fleetwood?
  • We’ve rounded up the best value picks to take home the most cash

Despite currently ranking a pedestrian 46th on the European Tour’s Race to Dubai rankings, Tommy Fleetwood is the lead contender at Bovada to win it at year’s end.

He’s followed closely by Bryson DeChambeau, who’s in a much better position than the Englishmen, sitting sixth on the list. Is there value in betting on this duo or should you place your cash on someone else?

Odds to Win 2019 European Tour Race to Dubai

Golfer Odds to Win 2019 European Tour Race to Dubai Title at Bovada
Tommy Fleetwood +600
Bryson DeChambeau +900
Justin Rose +900
Shane Lowry +1000
Jon Rahm +1200
Francesco Molinari +1400
Ian Poulter +1400
Hao Tong Li +1400
Xander Schauffele +1600
Louis Oosthuizen +2000
Sergio Garcia +2500
Matt Wallace +2800
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3300
Rafa Cabrera Bello +3300
Patrick Reed +4000

*Odds taken 03/20/19

Tommy Fleetwood Peaking at the Right Time

Tommy Fleetwood has held a share of the lead through 36 holes in his last two tournaments in the States (Bay Hill, Players Championship) before falling back on the weekend. Still, he posted a pair of top-five finishes which would seem to bode well for his Race to Dubai chances.

However, those two were PGA Tour events, so those results do not count towards the RTD standings. With a commitment to playing more in the States this year it’ll be hard for him to rack up tons of points unless he plays lights out in the majors. Last time we checked in on his odds last month he was +700. At even lower +600 odds now, I’d steer clear of wagering on Fleetwood at the moment.

Tommy Fleetwood’s Last 8 Worldwide Tournaments

Tournament Result
The Players Championship (PGA Tour) T-5th
Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA Tour) T-3rd
WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA/European Tour) T-19th
Genesis Open (PGA Tour) T-28th
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA Tour) T-45th
Omega Dubai Desert Classic (European Tour) T-16th
Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (European Tour) T-42nd
Honma Hong Kong Open (European Tour) T-14th

Is Bryson DeChambeau Worth Wagering On?

Just as we said in February, DeChambeau simply won’t be playing enough in Europe to merit betting on him to win the Race to Dubai. At least his odds have gone from +500 to a more reasonable +900 now.

Just like with Fleetwood, you’re pretty well betting on him to dominate majors and World Golf Championships events since he primarily plays the PGA Tour. I’d pass on him too.

Updated 2019 Race to Dubai Standings

Player Race to Dubai Points
1. Shane Lowry 1,256.6
2. Justin Harding 1,039.3
3. Ian Poulter 989.5
4. Richard Sterne 902.3
5. Kurt Kitayama 892.0
6. Bryson DeChambeau 853.9
46. Tommy Fleetwood 239.4

Value Picks to Win European Tour Race to Dubai

  1. Shane Lowry (+1000): Can’t go wrong with these odds for the guy currently leading the standings. Doesn’t have his PGA Tour card so will play a lot in Europe, boosting his chances of winning. Victorious at Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in January.
  2. Francesco Molinari (+1400): Last year’s RTD champ has one official event played (joint Euro Tour/PGA Tour sanctioned WGC-Mexico Championship.) As he adds events to his schedule in the summer, the Italian can surely be expected to play steady and strong golf. Just won the PGA Tour’s Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago.
  3. Hao Tong Li (+1400): Expected to focus primarily on European Tour this season which is a huge boon for his chances. Currently ranked 11th with second, 12th and 19th place results in the early going. Uber talented Chinese prodigy destined for greatness.
  4. Matt Wallace (+2800): Ranked 10th at the moment. Wallace was steady to start the year with three straight top-18 finishes before finishing runner-up at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic.
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