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Everfast’s Belmont Stakes Odds Continue Worsening; Is There Value?

Union Rags won the Belmont Stakes in 2012 (By:Mike L Photo's [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)])
  • The Belmont Stakes will be today at 6:37 PM EST
  • Favorites Tacitus and War of Will are somewhat underwhelming
  • Everfast’s odds are climbing, why? Does it present an opportunity?

There is a very good reason that we keep a close eye on our Belmont Stakes Odds Tracker. It serves as a great guide as to where value is present. When horses move up or down significantly, you have to ask, why?

The odds on favorites Tacitus and War of Will have remained roughly the same. They are the deserving chalk, but they aren’t getting vigorous action forcing their price down. Meanwhile, Everfast’s odds are climbing up. There is no apparent reason, suggesting to the watchful bettor that some value could be present.

Let’s look at the most recent odds from Bovada and do a little analysis.

2019 Belmont Stakes Odds

Horse Odds at Bovada
Tacitus +175
War of Will +275
Intrepid Heart +800
Bourbon War +800
Everfast +1000
Master Fencer +1200
Sir Winston +1200
Spinoff +1200
Tax +1200
Joevia +2500

*Odds taken 06/08/19

Favorite: Tacitus

He didn’t run his A-race at the Kentucky Derby, and still managed to get to the wire fourth (placed third through disqualification of Maximum Security). Prior to Louisville, he won a so-so Wood Memorial, and took care of business in a decent Tampa Bay Derby. His style, sitting just off the pace, should be perfect for Belmont Park and the long stretch run. He is rested and should give his best.

Top Challenger: War of Will

A lot has been made of how his chances to win the Kentucky Derby were crushed when Maximum Security moved into his path. What isn’t discussed as much is the fact he likely wasn’t going to win anyway, and he got a perfect ground-saving trip along the rail to win the Preakness. This is his third race in five weeks, and 11th race since late August. He needs a break. Can he gut out one more big performance? The odds are pretty short.

Longshot: Everfast

He was coming on like gangbusters, despite facing some obstacles, at the Preakness. That said, he was 29/1 in Baltimore, and is one for 11 in his career. The Preakness is the only race of his life that comes anywhere close to being competitive with this field. However, trainer Dale Romans is top-notch; perhaps he found something three weeks ago. His deep closing style can be effective at Belmont Park, particularly if you think the pace up front will be quick.

If you’re looking for value, is it here with the longshot? If you don’t like the favorites, for sure; and even if you do, just liking Tacitus doesn’t mean there is value on him.

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