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McKinzie’s Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds Shorten to 8-1

Horses leave the gate at Santa Anita Racetrack.
Santa Anita will host the Breeders' Cup on November 2nd. Photo by Rennett Stowe (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Maximum Security and McKinzie remain favorites for the Breeders’ Cup Classic
  • A handful of contenders have seen their odds tick up
  • What Breeders’ Cup Classic bet provides the most value?

The season’s have changed in horse racing.

The Triple Crown campaign, highlighted by controversy and oddity is over, and summer racing is in full swing. With Saratoga and Del Mar comes excitement and hope. A lot of two year olds, the Triple Crown contenders of the future, debut around now.

As for older horses and some of those who ran in the Triple Crown, their path towards the World Championships this fall are unfolding. Breeders’ Cup odds have fluctuated and now we are prepared to take a closer look.

Odds to Win 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Horse 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds at Bovada
Maximum Security +700
McKinzie +800
Game Winner +1000
Omaha Beach +1000
Thunder Snow +1000
Bravazo +1400
Catholic Boy +1600
Code of Honor +1600
Country House +1600
Gift Box +1600
Tacitus +1600
Vino Rosso +1600

*Odds taken 07/12/19

Maximum Security, who finished first at the Kentucky Derby but was disqualified, is a tepid favorite over McKinzie, who has seen his odds move down. There are several interesting options at double digit odds.

The Roses are Still Red

Maximum Security was denied the roses in Louisville despite finishing first at the Kentucky Derby, thereby becoming the first horse taken off the perch in history aside from a drug violation a generation ago.

He returned to the track at the Pegasus Stakes in mid June and failed to win despite 1/9 odds at Monmouth Park. He is slated to run again at Monmouth in the track’s signature race, the Haskell Invitational on July 20th.

Prior to the Kentucky Derby, the former claiming horse was four-for-four in his career including a score in the Florida Derby.

Older May Be Better

Because only three year olds are permitted in the Triple Crown races each year the name recognition among that group is very large, and sometimes overrated.

In 2018 McKinzie was likely to be the favorite at the Kentucky Derby. He got hurt, and Justify went on to win the Triple Crown.

Looking back, that group of three year olds now seems significantly stronger than this year’s crop. McKinzie has picked up where he left off before the injury.

In seven races since returning to the track McKinzie has won three times, and finished second on three occasions.

In seven races since returning to the track McKinzie has won three times, and finished second on three occasions. He finished second against ultra talented sprinter Mitole in the Metropolitan Handicap last month.

Thunder Snow a Live Longshot

It has been proven time and time again how difficult it is to ship a horse overseas, particularly to and from Dubai, and have them run their best the first time they race after the long travel.

Thunder Snow has won the world’s richest race, the Dubai World Cup, each of the last two years. He finished third in the Breeders Cup Classic last year while McKinzie ran 12th.

After winning in Dubai March 30th, Thunder Snow returned to American and ran in the Metropolitan Handicap. Finishing behind Mitole and McKinzie in your first effort in 10 weeks after a long flight is not bad at all. He also is much more suited to longer races, like the Breeders Cup.

Who to Bet

There is no reason to invest in a three year old, particularly Maximum Security who was not good in his return from the Kentucky Derby. McKinzie is really talented and the price is fair. Thunder Snow is a clear value at this stage.

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