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Mid-Season NHL Awards Odds – Calder Trophy

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in News

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:40 AM PST

The NHL’s All-Star Weekend is upon us and it’s time for some mid-season retrospection and prognostication.

First up, we take a look at this year’s crop of rookies and, more specifically, who is likely to take home the Calder Trophy at the annual NHL Awards.

Some would argue that this is really a three-horse race between Nashville’s Filip Forsberg, Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau, and Florida’s Aaron Ekblad; but we see Winnipeg’s standout goalie Michael Hutchinson and Ottawa’s under-the-radar sniper Mike Hoffman as legitimate contenders as well. Let’s take a look at their respective resumes along with their odds to win the Calder.

Michael Hutchinson (G, Winnipeg Jets) – Odds: 20/1

The Winnipeg Jets have not been to the playoffs since moving from Atlanta before the 2011-2012 season. In fact, the franchise last appeared in the post-season in 2006-2007 when they got swept in the conference quarterfinals by the Rangers. This year, Winnipeg has an excellent chance to break the playoff drought and goaltender Michael Hutchinson (14-4-2, 2 shutouts) is a big reason why.

He’s 20/1 to win the Calder primarily because he doesn’t play every game. In fact, he backs up Ondrej Pavelec about 60% of the time. However, when given a chance, Hutchinson has a strong 1.90 GAA and .935 save percentage. While he leads the NHL in save percentage and is third in goals against, unless Pavelec gets hurt, Hutchinson likely won’t play enough to win the award.

Mike Hoffman (F, Ottawa Senators) – Odds: 15/1

Ottawa’s Mike Hoffman (16 goals, 25 points, +19) scored again on Wednesday and now leads, not just his team, but all NHL rookies with 16 tallies. He is also the only Senator who is a double-digit plus. The Ontario native’s stats look especially impressive when you consider that he is playing only about 14 minutes per game. However, he is 15/1 because (a) the Senators are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in and (b) other rookies have better numbers and play bigger roles for their teams.

Aaron Ekblad (D, Florida Panthers) – Odds: 5/1

Ekblad (6 goals, 25 points, +7) is a clear third choice to win the Calder Trophy at 5/1. His Florida Panthers have been to the playoffs just once since 1999-2000 and are right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. While Florida has scored among the fewest goals in the NHL, Ekblad has been a huge help from the back line. The top pick in last season’s draft has 19 assists while playing over 22 minutes per night. On a team with a negative goal difference, Ekblad is an impressive +7 on the year. He leads rookie defensemen in goals and assists while ranking second among all first year players in time on the ice.

Johnny Gaudreau (F, Calgary Flames) – Odds: 3/2

Gaudreau (13 goals, 35 points, +11) may have been a 5/1 or more longshot early in the season, but he’s now a clear second choice to earn the award at 3/2. The Flames have not been to the playoffs since 2008-2009 and Gaudreau is a big reason why they are in contention this year. He has been an offensive force for the Flames, who struggled to score last year. Gaudreau is top-three on the Flames in points and assists and plays on the top power-play unit.

“Johnny Hockey” failed to earn a point in the first five games of the year, but has not gone more than two games without a point in over two months. He is among the top three rookies in the NHL in goals, assists, power play points, and game winning goals.

Filip Forsberg (F, Nashville Predators) – Odds: 7/10

Forsberg (15 goals, 40 points, +25) has been the front-runner for most of the year. Traded from Washington to the Predators for Martin Erat and Michael Latta in March, the Capitals almost certainly will regret dealing the 7/10 Calder Trophy-favorite for years to come. Forsberg has helped Nashville to one of the best records in the league, including a nearly perfect mark at home. Forsberg leads the team in goals and points and is second in helpers; he is also among the league leaders in plus/minus. He leads all rookies in assists, points, power play points, and game winning goals. That’s a recipe for a Calder Trophy runaway.

(Photo credit: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA (IMG_6356) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)

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