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MLB Props – Who Can Stay Hot and Who Cannot? [UPDATED]

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in News

May 4, 2016 · 5:55 AM PDT

We all know baseball has a very long regular season, even longer than Pablo Sandoval’s waistline. But it’s funny how often we’re reminded of that fact by teams that are doing poorly. The struggling Houston Astros will be quick to tell anyone that it’s a 162-game season, while the hot-starting Phillies might argue that 26 games is an indicator of sustained success.

So which is it MLB? Can we truly draw any knowledge from the first month of the season? Certainly some of the blazing starts will taper off, as will some of the futility. But April isn’t a complete throw-away month: as they say, “wins in April count just as much in September.”

Perhaps that also means the Cubs really will have a historically great season. Maybe we’ll see an all Chicago World Series. Perchance, the Braves will be the worst home run-hitting team of all time.

Rather than take the wait-and-see approach, we’ve decided to get proactive at SBD. So we’re setting the odds for just how the rest of the season will play out. From Trevor Story’s crazy start to David Ortiz’s historic end, here are our props for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season.

All props are for the 2016 MLB season unless indicated otherwise.

Team Props

Odds to finish with the most regular-season wins

Cubs: 1/1
Nationals: 23/4
Mets: 6/1
White Sox: 9/1
Red Sox: 14/1
FIELD: 12/1

Odds the Cubs win at least 100 games: 5/9

Odds the Cubs win an MLB-record 117 games: 27/1

Odds the Cubs and White Sox meet in the World Series: 23/1

Odds the Yankees finish .500 or better: 9/4

Odds the Yankees make the playoffs: 25/2

Odds the Braves finish with the worst win percentage in the modern era (.235): 18/1

Odds to lead the AL in home runs

Orioles: 7/5
Blue Jays: 15/4
Tigers: 9/2
Mariners: 8/1
Astros: 11/1
FIELD: 22/1

Odds to lead the NL in home runs

Rockies: 5/6
Cardinals: 7/2
Diamondbacks: 6/1
Mets: 10/1
FIELD: 30/1

Over/under on Braves home runs: 75.5

Over/under on the number of players who hit more home runs than the Braves: 0.5 (Over: 15/1)


Off-field Props

Over/under on PED suspensions (May to the end of the regular season): 3.5

Odds Adam LaRoche comes out of retirement before the end of the season: 40/1

Over/under on Pablo Sandoval’s (Red Sox) weight on the last day of the season: 253.5 lbs

Odds Curt Schilling is hired in a new broadcasting role by the end of the season: 10/1

Odds Donald Trump selects Curt Schilling as his VP running mate: 12,000/1

Odds someone performs a worse rendition of “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” at Wrigley than Warren G200/1

Player Props

Odds to win NL Rookie of the Year

Trevor Story (Rockies): 9/5
Kenta Maeda (Dodgers): 11/4
Aledmys Diaz (Cardinals): 4/1
Corey Seager (Dodgers): 6/1
FIELD: 12/1

Odds for AL Rookie of the Year

Byung Ho-Park (Twins): 2/1
Nomar Mazara (Rangers): 2/1
Joey Rickard (Orioles): 7/1
Jose Berrios (Twins): 9/1
FIELD: 6/1

Odds Wade Davis (Royals) does not allow an earned run all season:* 1000/1

Odds Andrew Miller (Yankees) does not allow an earned run all season:* 8000/1

*Assuming both pitchers make 60+ appearances.

Odds to throw the next no-hitter

Jake Arrieta (Cubs): 8/1
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): 9/1
Chris Sale (White Sox): 12/1
Noah Syndergaard/Matt Harvey/Steven Matz/Jacob Degrom (Mets): 12/1
Jordan Zimmerman (Tigers): 16/1
FIELD: 2/3

Odds on which event will occur first …

a pitcher throws a nine-inning no-hitter: 1/6
a pitcher is removed from a game in the midst of throwing a no-hitter: 9/2

Over/Under on Trevor Story (Rockies) home runs: 37.5 (38 is the NL rookie record)

Over/Under on Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) home runs: 33 (28 will move him past Babe Ruth into third on the all-time list)

[UPDATE: A-Rod was placed on the 15-day DL shortly after this was originally posted, reducing his o/u HRs to 30.]

Odds to hit more home runs:

David Ortiz (Red Sox): 2/3
Alex Rodriguez (Yankees): 13/10

Odds David Ortiz (Red Sox) breaks Dave Kingman’s record of 35 home runs in last career season: 8/1

Odds David Ortiz (Red Sox) breaks Ted Williams’ Red Sox record of 29 home runs in last career season: 5/12


(Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Originally uploaded to Flickr)[https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/])

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