2019 ALDS Picks & Preview – Twins vs Yankees; Rays vs Astros

• Both 2019 ALDS series start on Friday, Oct. 4th
• The Yankees are -225 favorites against the Twins; the Astros are -300 to oust the Rays
• Get Mike Ortiz Jr’s favorite bets for the best-of-five matchups

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The American League playoffs get underway on Friday, Oct. 4th, one day behind the senior circuit. The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros will start the festivities with Game 1 of their best-of-five scheduled for 2:05 PM ET.

That will be followed by Game 1 between the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees at 7:07 PM ET.

Here are my best bets for both ALDS matchups.

Twins vs Yankees Series Price

This shapes up as one of the best opening-round series yet: two 100-plus-win teams, the top two scoring teams in baseball this year, and the first teams to ever break the 300-homer mark in a single season.

Get ready for a longball or two.

The Yankees had the edge in the regular season, winning four out of the six meetings. (Unsurprisingly, the over cashed in five of six.) However, that’s a small and outdated sample size. The last game between the two was all the way back in July.

While the offenses are getting all the ink heading into Game 1, I believe that the key to this series is on the mound.

Despite being two average pitching rotations, I give the edge to the Yankees. While Minnesota’s Game 1 starter, Jose Berrios, has great numbers  for the regular season, as a whole, his numbers over the past two months paint a much different, much uglier picture.

[Jose Berrios] posted a 5.83 ERA over the final two months, and largely did so against the dregs of the AL Central.

The All-Star posted a 5.83 ERA over the final two months, and largely did so against the dregs of the AL Central (the Tigers, Royals, and White Sox). That’s not a good omen heading into a series against this prolific Yankee offense.

Berrios isn’t the only starting pitcher that’s struggled for the Twins either as Jake Odorizzi has nearly a 5.00 ERA in his past 15 starts. Pitching will be the difference in this series, and the Yankees have the edge.

FINAL: Yankees 7, Blue Jays 2

James Paxton EXTENDS his winning streak to 10 STRAIGHT STARTS!

????#YANKSonYES pic.twitter.com/OhD3taUKYr

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) September 21, 2019

In terms of totals, I’d definitely lean to the over in a lot of these games. Saying the Yankees have the pitching edge does not mean that they have a shut-down staff. Even with James Paxton (NYY’s Game 1 starter) riding something of a hot streak into the postseason, the over is still the play in Game 1.

Rays vs Astros Series Price

The Tampa Bay Rays are playing the underdog card this postseason and I wouldn’t blame you for playing it too. The Rays have one of the most underrated pitching rotations in baseball. They were an underdog in the AL Wild Card game on Wednesday night against the Oakland Athletics in which they won comfortably 5-1.

Charlie Morton (3.5 ERA, 1.084 WHIP) continued to deliver and Tampa’s bullpen backed him up, as it has done almost all year. Tampa’s 3.71 bullpen ERA is the best in baseball.

https://youtu.be/U4mQ_HNVmsk

Yes, the Houston Astros are certainly stiffer competition compared to the A’s, but not by much. The Astros finished third in the majors, averaging 5.68 runs per game. The A’s were eighth at 5.22.

The Astros’ pitching is phenomenal with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole finishing the year one-two in the 2019 CY Young odds. But the Rays have high caliber pitching, as well. Starting pitcher Blake Snell was last year’s CY Young winner, and Charlie Morton is a good candidate to finish third in 2019 Cy Young voting.

Tyler Glasnow, who returned from the IL in early September, is one of the main reasons why I love this Rays team so much in this series. He was arguably the best pitcher in baseball to start the year, going 6-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 48.1 IP before suffering a forearm injury. While he’s only pitched 12.1 total innings since, his numbers in those innings are even better: 1.46 ERA and 21 Ks.

The biggest question mark for Glasnow is whether he can go at least five innings. Encouragingly, he’s pitched deeper into games over his four starts in September, culminating with 4.1 shutout innings (66 pitchers) against the Blue Jays on Sep. 27th.

I’m confident Glasnow will be able to give Tampa five strong. He faced the Astros back in March, allowing only one run on six hits over five innings while striking out four.