- The odds to lead the MLB in home runs in 2019 have been updated
- Reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich is the new favorite among the individual players listed
- However, the FIELD option has the shortest odds of all; find out who it includes
Bookmaker has updated the 2019 MLB home-run king odds to reflect some recent hot streaks and injuries.
Earlier in May, my colleague advised that Khris Davis was good value at +1200 to be the MLB home-run king. Unfortunately, Davis suffered an oblique strain that could keep him out for a while, and his odds have plummeted as a result.
Here’s where things stand as of May 24th.
Odds to Lead MLB in Home Runs in 2019
|Who will lead MLB in home runs in 2019?||Homers as of May 24||Home-run leader odds at BookMaker|
|Christian Yelich, Brewers||19||+325|
|George Springer, Astros||17||+501|
|Cody Bellinger, Dodgers||17||+526|
|Joey Gallo, Rangers||15||+939|
|Mike Trout, Angels||11||+1507|
|Joc Pederson, Dodgers||14||+1507|
|Nolan Arenado, Rockies||11||+2012|
|Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals||14||+2518|
|Khris Davis, Athletics||12||+3026|
|Javier Baez, Cubs||12||+4000|
|Edwin Encarnacion, Mariners||13||+5000|
|Rhys Hoskins, Phillies||11||+5000|
|Eddie Rosario, Twins||14||+5000|
|Trevor Story, Rockies||11||+7500|
|Jay Bruce, Mariners||12||+10000|
|Matt Chapman, Athletics||11||+10000|
|Bryce Harper, Phillies||9||+10000|
|Aaron Judge, Yankees||5||+10000|
|Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals||10||+20000|
|Jose Altuve, Astros||9||+30000|
Springer Falls Due to Injury
George Springer was on pace for a career year before missing the last four games with back tightness. His odds have fallen from +400 to +501 as a result.
He’s expected back in the lineup on Friday (May 24), but has also only managed 140 games each of the last two seasons.
As the historically-good Astros run away with the AL West, expect Springer to get all the rest he needs anytime a minor issue flares up
As the historically-good Astros run away with the AL West, expect Springer to get all the rest he needs anytime a minor issue flares up.
Tied for second in the majors at 17 HRs, Springer’s hard-hit rate of 55% is fourth overall. His current odds give him a 16.7% implied probability.
Yelich Becomes the Outright Favorite
With a two-homer lead on the field and 36-homer season under his belt, reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich has become the favorite.
Beware, though, the 27-year-old has missed seven games already this year, including the last two with back spasms. Like Springer, he’s returning on Friday.
Christian Yelich- Back- Yelich was scratched from the lineup tonight with back spasms. These back spasms are unrelated to the lower-back stiffness that sidelined him earlier in the season but are not considered serious, Adam McCalvy of https://t.co/wznV8oM89I reports. #Brewers
— Fantasy Baseball Injury Guru (@mlbinjuryguru) May 22, 2019
Yelich has a better track record than Springer in terms of health, playing at least 147 games in each of the last three seasons. He’s just behind Spring in hard-hit rate at 54.8% (6th in MLB).
His odds give him a very-high 23.5% implied probability to lead the league in home runs.
Gallo is Lurking
Joey Gallo’s odds have improved ever so slightly over the last two weeks, but the change is minimal. A 6’5 freak athlete, Gallo hit the 40-homer mark in 2017 and 2018.
The narrative around him this season is that he has become a more complete hitter, and that’s certainly true. His OPS has skyrocketed from a solid .810 to an MVP-caliber 1.113 (fourth-best in the majors). Formerly a Golden Sombrero candidate on any given night, he’s … actually still striking out a ton (35.0%), but is also being more patient. He’s upped his walk rate from 12.8% to 19.1%.
His new approach at the plate hasn’t cost him any power, indeed he’s hitting the ball harder this year. He leads the majors in hard-hit rate at 60.7% and average exit velocity at 96.9 MPH! That’s 11% higher than last season.
In terms of durability, Gallo averaged 146.5 games in 2017 and 2018, his first full seasons in the majors. H has missed four games this year, but they were all one-offs and he is not currently sporting any injury concerns.
Gallo’s current odds (+939) carry an implied probability of 9.6%.
Why Is “FIELD” the Favorite?
In short, because five of the top-ten and 19 of the top 30 on the current leaderboard are in the FIELD. They include …
|Members of the FIELD||Homers as of May 23||Previous single-season high|
|Josh Bell, Pirates||16||26 (2017)|
|Pete Alonso, Mets||16||N/A (rookie)|
|Gary Sanchez, Yankees||15||33 (2017)|
|Franmil Reyes, Padres||15||16 (2018)|
|Alex Bregman, Astros||15||31 (2018)|
|Daniel Vogelbach, Mariners||14||4 (2018)|
|Mitch Moreland, Red Sox||13||23 (twice)|
|Anthony Rizzo, Cubs||13||32 (three times)|
|CJ Cron, Twins||13||30 (2018)|
|Eugenio Suarez, Reds||13||34 (2018)|
|Mike Moustakas, Brewers||12||38 (2017)|
|Freddie Freeman, Braves||12||34 (2016)|
|Derek Dietrich, Reds||12||16 (2018)|
|Tommy La Stella, Angels||12||5 (2017)|
|Mitch Haniger, Mariners||12||26 (2018)|
|Jose Abreu, White Sox||12||36 (2014)|
|Gleyber Torres, Yankees||12||24 (2018)|
|Luke Voit, Yankees||12||15 (2018)|
|Kris Bryant, Cubs||12||39 (2016)|
Betting on the FIELD gets you nine players who have a non-zero chance of winning this season-long home-run derby: Josh Bell, Pete Alonso, Gary Sanchez, Anthony Rizzo, Eugenio Suarez, Freddie Freeman, Jose Abreu, Kris Bryant, and Alex Bregman.
At +200, the FIELD has an implied probability of 33.3%. It’s considerably higher than any individual player listed, and based on the current state of affairs, it should be.
Betting advice: The only bet I would consider here is Gallo at +939. At +200, there isn’t enough value on the FIELD, not the way Yelich, Springer, and let’s not forget Cody Bellinger are swinging the bat.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.