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The “FIELD” Is Favored to Lead the MLB in Homers Over Yelich, Springer, Gallo; Just Who’s in This “FIELD” Option?

Milwaukee OF Christian Yelich
Milwaukee's Christian Yelich is at +325 to lead the MLB in homers in 2019. Photo by Ian D'Andrea (flickr) [CC License].
  • The odds to lead the MLB in home runs in 2019 have been updated
  • Reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich is the new favorite among the individual players listed
  • However, the FIELD option has the shortest odds of all; find out who it includes

Bookmaker has updated the 2019 MLB home-run king odds to reflect some recent hot streaks and injuries.

Earlier in May, my colleague advised that Khris Davis was good value at +1200 to be the MLB home-run king. Unfortunately, Davis suffered an oblique strain that could keep him out for a while, and his odds have plummeted as a result.

Here’s where things stand as of May 24th.

Odds to Lead MLB in Home Runs in 2019

Who will lead MLB in home runs in 2019? Homers as of May 24 Home-run leader odds at BookMaker
Christian Yelich, Brewers 19 +325
George Springer, Astros 17 +501
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers 17 +526
Joey Gallo, Rangers 15 +939
Mike Trout, Angels 11 +1507
Joc Pederson, Dodgers 14 +1507
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 11 +2012
Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals 14 +2518
Khris Davis, Athletics 12 +3026
Javier Baez, Cubs 12 +4000
Edwin Encarnacion, Mariners 13 +5000
Rhys Hoskins, Phillies 11 +5000
Eddie Rosario, Twins 14 +5000
Trevor Story, Rockies 11 +7500
Jay Bruce, Mariners 12 +10000
Matt Chapman, Athletics 11 +10000
Bryce Harper, Phillies 9 +10000
Aaron Judge, Yankees 5 +10000
Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals 10 +20000
Jose Altuve, Astros 9 +30000
FIELD N/A +200

Springer Falls Due to Injury

George Springer was on pace for a career year before missing the last four games with back tightness. His odds have fallen from +400 to +501 as a result.

He’s expected back in the lineup on Friday (May 24), but has also only managed 140 games each of the last two seasons.

As the historically-good Astros run away with the AL West, expect Springer to get all the rest he needs anytime a minor issue flares up

As the historically-good Astros run away with the AL West, expect Springer to get all the rest he needs anytime a minor issue flares up.

Tied for second in the majors at 17 HRs, Springer’s hard-hit rate of 55% is fourth overall. His current odds give him a 16.7% implied probability.

Yelich Becomes the Outright Favorite

With a two-homer lead on the field and 36-homer season under his belt, reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich has become the favorite.

Beware, though, the 27-year-old has missed seven games already this year, including the last two with back spasms. Like Springer, he’s returning on Friday.


Yelich has a better track record than Springer in terms of health, playing at least 147 games in each of the last three seasons.  He’s just behind Spring in hard-hit rate at 54.8% (6th in MLB).

His odds give him a very-high 23.5% implied probability to lead the league in home runs.

Gallo is Lurking

Joey Gallo’s odds have improved ever so slightly over the last two weeks, but the change is minimal. A 6’5 freak athlete, Gallo hit the 40-homer mark in 2017 and 2018.

The narrative around him this season is that he has become a more complete hitter, and that’s certainly true. His OPS has skyrocketed from a solid .810 to an MVP-caliber 1.113 (fourth-best in the majors). Formerly a Golden Sombrero candidate on any given night, he’s … actually still striking out a ton (35.0%), but is also being more patient. He’s upped his walk rate from 12.8% to 19.1%.

His new approach at the plate hasn’t cost him any power, indeed he’s hitting the ball harder this year. He leads the majors in hard-hit rate at 60.7% and average exit velocity at 96.9 MPH! That’s 11% higher than last season.

In terms of durability, Gallo averaged 146.5 games in 2017 and 2018, his first full seasons in the majors. H has missed four games this year, but they were all one-offs and he is not currently sporting any injury concerns.

Gallo’s current odds (+939) carry an implied probability of 9.6%.

Why Is “FIELD” the Favorite?

In short, because five of the top-ten and 19 of the top 30 on the current leaderboard are in the FIELD. They include …

Members of the FIELD Homers as of May 23 Previous single-season high
Josh Bell, Pirates 16 26 (2017)
Pete Alonso, Mets 16 N/A (rookie)
Gary Sanchez, Yankees 15 33 (2017)
Franmil Reyes, Padres 15 16 (2018)
Alex Bregman, Astros 15 31 (2018)
Daniel Vogelbach, Mariners 14 4 (2018)
Mitch Moreland, Red Sox 13 23 (twice)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 13 32 (three times)
CJ Cron, Twins 13 30 (2018)
Eugenio Suarez, Reds 13 34 (2018)
Mike Moustakas, Brewers 12 38 (2017)
Freddie Freeman, Braves 12 34 (2016)
Derek Dietrich, Reds 12 16 (2018)
Tommy La Stella, Angels 12 5 (2017)
Mitch Haniger, Mariners 12 26 (2018)
Jose Abreu, White Sox 12  36 (2014)
Gleyber Torres, Yankees 12  24 (2018)
Luke Voit, Yankees 12 15 (2018)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 12 39 (2016)

Betting on the FIELD gets you nine players who have a non-zero chance of winning this season-long home-run derby: Josh Bell, Pete Alonso, Gary Sanchez, Anthony Rizzo, Eugenio Suarez, Freddie Freeman, Jose Abreu, Kris Bryant, and Alex Bregman.

At +200, the FIELD has an implied probability of 33.3%. It’s considerably higher than any individual player listed, and based on the current state of affairs, it should be.

Betting advice: The only bet I would consider here is Gallo at +939. At +200, there isn’t enough value on the FIELD, not the way Yelich, Springer, and let’s not forget Cody Bellinger are swinging the bat.

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