Upcoming Match-ups

Nationals Are Huge +600 Underdogs to Win World Series Heading Into Game 6

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in MLB Baseball

Oct 27, 2019 · 9:20 PM PDT

Justin Verlander on the mound for the Houston Astros.
The Houston Astros will turn to Justin Verlander in Game 6 of the World Series. Can he close it out? Photo by Keith Allison (Wikimedia) [CC License].
  • The Astros swept all three games in Washington to take a 3-2 lead in the 2019 World Series
  • The home team has yet to win a game in the series
  • The Astros have had at least nine hits in every game of the series

The Houston Astros took care of business in Game 5 of the World Series (7-1) and now hold a 3-2 series lead. The 2019 World Series odds suggest that they are destined to have rings on their fingers in a matter of days, but are they a good bet at a hyper-short -900?

They’ll have Justin Verlander on the mount to close things out in as -186 favorites in the Nationals vs Astros Game 6 odds.

Updated World Series Odds After Game 5

Team Odds at Bet365
Washington Nationals +600
Houston Astros -900

Odds taken Oct 27.

Astros Catch Break With Scherzer Injury In Game 5

The momentum of this series has turned on a dime. The Nats could do no wrong in Games 1 and 2, but Games 3, 4 and 5 have been the complete opposite. Game 5 got off on the wrong foot for the Nats when Max Scherzer had to be scratched due to neck spasms.

As a result, Joe Ross was forced into the start and he struggled. He gave the Nats five innings but he gave up two two-run home runs, which put the Nationals behind the eight-ball. With Gerrit Cole on the mound and pitching much better than he did in Game 1, the Nats were sunk.

Who Pitches In Game 7?

One of the big issues with betting the Nationals on the World Series price here is who’ll pitch Game 7. Let’s say they do win Game 6 with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. He’s been excellent this postseason, posting a 1.93 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 28 innings of work. The Nats have won all five of his starts.

The three potential options for Game 7 are Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, and Patrick Corbin.

Scherzer had a cortisone injection on Sunday, which takes 48 hours to kick-in. That means there’s an outside shot he’s ready for Game 7. But if he’s not, Sanchez and Corbin are uninspiring options. Sanchez was pounded in Game 3 and Corbin was hit hard in Game 4.

If Scherzer goes, the Nats could have a nice edge against Greinke. If not, Sanchez or Corbin sets up a dicey situation.

Can Verlander Close It Out?

Of course, you can bet the Astros at a short -900 to win the World Series ahead of Game 6, but typically, the math works out better to bet the Astros on the moneylines in Games 6 and 7.

In Game 6, they’ll go with Verlander, who has looked like he’s run out of gas at times but has been their best pitcher this season. The Astros have actually lost three of the last four times Verlander has been on the mound. He’s developed an issue with home runs as he’s given up six in his last four starts, which is a carry over from the regular season.  While he had allowed just three in his previous eight starts, he was actually second in the AL in home runs allowed in the regular season at 36.

So far this postseason, he has a 4.15 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. It’s mostly been the home runs that have gotten him into trouble. However, the Astros have to feel pretty good about giving one of their studs the ball for Game 6 to close this out.

If we get news that Scherzer has a shot to go for Game 7, I wouldn’t mind taking a really small bet on the Nats to pull this off on the series price. Otherwise, just bet the Astros on the moneylines in Games 6 and 7 if you’re confident they’re claiming the championship.

Author Image