NL Central Division Winner Odds and Best Bet
By Bryan Thiel in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The NL Central has become a toss-up in a 60-game season
- Three different teams have won the division the last three seasons
- Which roster is ready to win in 2020?
Whether it’s 162 games or 60, no division enters 2020 with more uncertainty than the NL Central.
Aside from the Pirates, any of the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers or Reds could make a case to be division favorites. You could also reason that any of those four will miss the playoffs.
Here is where the divisional odds stand less than 10 days from the start of the season.
2020 NL Central Odds
| Team | 2019 Record | Odds Per Caesars |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 84-78 | +210 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 75-87 | +210 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 91-71 | +240 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 89-73 | +450 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 69-93 | +4000 |
Odds as of July 14th.
With such a tightly packed division, who’s worth their current price in a 60-game schedule?
Cards’ NL Central Reign Hinges on Offense
Despite winning the NL Central and going all the way to the NLCS, the Cards are battling for position.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, they were slight favorites on our 2020 MLB Divisional Odds. Now, most books have them as either co-favorites or slightly behind the Cubs and Reds.
A breakdown of the last 10 NL Central Champions! 🏆 pic.twitter.com/OUlRxZ80zq
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 7, 2020
It’s easy to point to an offensively inept NLCS as proof that St. Louis’ lineup has bust potential. But things run deeper than that. The team let Marcell Ozuna walk in the off-season with the hope being he could be replaced from within. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt needs to bounce back.
Paul Goldschmidt: 2019 vs Career
| 34 | Home Runs | 31 |
| 97 | RBI | 106 |
| 97 | Runs | 105 |
| .260 | Batting Average | .297 |
| .346 | On-Base Percentage | .398 |
| .476 | Slugging % | .532 |
| 2.4 | WAR | 5.1 |
Goldschmidt has started slow the past two seasons and also struggled last August.
St. Louis plays good defense and has quality starting pitching. But run production is a question. Some key bats are getting up there in age.
Top prospect Dylan Carlson will get the chance to strut his stuff, but will it be enough to give the Cards what they need?
Reds’ Defense Could Hold Them Back
The Reds are off-season darlings and a trendy division pick when it comes to the post-pandemic world. Why? Because they can pitch and, in theory, hit.
https://twitter.com/AndSwafford/status/1282019506995580928
While they finished 12th in the NL in runs scored last year (701), Cincy added Nick Castellanos (76 HR, 263 RBI the last three seasons), Mike Moustakas (35 HR in 2019), and Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama this winter.
Their top three starters – Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, and Sonny Gray – may be the best in the NL Central.
Reds Rotation Projections
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP | K/BB | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 4-4 | 4.10 | 1.33 | 67/25 | 4.12 |
| Luis Castillo | 4-4 | 3.98 | 1.28 | 76/26 | 4.04 |
| Trevor Bauer | 4-4 | 4.11 | 1.27 | 84/28 | 4.14 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 3-4 | 4.70 | 1.32 | 50/16 | 4.67 |
| Wade Miley | 3-4 | 4.63 | 1.47 | 44/22 | 4.77 |
The thing on everyone’s mind however, is defense. FanGraphs projections for their infield aren’t favorable. That could significantly hurt Gray and Castillo, who rely on ground ball outs.
Cubs Face Pivotal Season in 2020
Chicago saw its stretch of four-straight playoff appearances end in 2019, and with it manager Joe Maddon’s tenure.
The Cubs are hoping David Ross can get something different out of an unchanged core group. One thing Ross is trying this season is batting 2016 NL MVP Kris Bryant in the leadoff spot.
Kris Bryant: Lead-off vs Hitting Second
| 28 | At-Bats | 1326 |
| 9 | Hits | 395 |
| .321 | Average | .298 |
| 0 | Home Runs | 69 |
| 3 | RBI | 192 |
| .387 | On-Base Percentage | .398 |
Bryant typically hits second or third, but he has seen limited success leading off. He’s also hit .291 with 24 home runs when leading off an inning.
https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1280241235698036738
If Bryant succeeds, the Cubs just have to hope #1 starter Yu Darvish stays dominant and closer Craig Kimbrel is past his struggles.
NL Central Comes Down to Two
Christian Yelich will always make the Brewers a threat, but they’re built more for 162 games rather than 60. The Cardinals also need a ton to go right to repeat.
As for the Reds, the defense will hurt them, dragging their pitchers down.
Before the season began, PECOTA projected a losing season for the Crew. In the 60 game season they sit at .500 and 4th in the tough NL Central by their projections. pic.twitter.com/JjjeWn1k4b
— Paul Bretl (@Paul_Bretl) July 8, 2020
The Cubs aren’t without their warts, but there are questions as to how much longer this group will be together. That should motivate them.
With a good offense, Darvish pitching well, and Jon Lester holding off Father Time, the Cubs take the NL Central.
The Pick: Chicago Cubs (+210)
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
