After Opening at 7-1, Manny Machado’s NL MVP Odds Now 14-1

• Manny Machado’s odds of winning the National League MVP have doubled since he signed with the San Diego Padres
• Across top sportsbooks Machado averages +1400 to win the award
• His opening odds were as low as +700

When they signed free agent Manny Machado, the San Diego Padres probably figured he’d hit a lot of doubles. This wasn’t what they had in mind, though.

Since joining the Padres, Machado’s National League MVP odds have doubled across a selection of top sportsbooks, from +700 to +1400.

2019 National League MVP Odds

*Odds taken on 03/22/19.

Though he’s never been named an MVP, Machado finished in the top 10 in AL voting three times while a member of the Baltimore Orioles. His best outcome was a fourth-place showing in 2015.

Machado Will Need Monster Year

The Padres haven’t made the playoffs since 2006. They haven’t enjoyed a winning season since 2010. Last season’s 66-96 slate was San Diego’s worst since 2008 (63-99). That’s not the kind of support to prop up an MVP candidate.

People like winners. People back winners. Both of last season’s MVPs – Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich (NL) and Boston’s Mookie Betts (AL) – played for playoff teams. Eight of the last 10 NL MVPs were on teams that participated in the postseason.

Giancarlo Stanton wins NL MVP Award 🏆

• .281/.376/.631
• 59 HR
• 132 RBI
• 1.007 OPS pic.twitter.com/wVN0QMvIGg

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 16, 2017

The two who didn’t turn in monster years. The 59 homers slugged by Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton in 2017 were the most in big leagues in 16 years. Washington’s Bryce Harper (2015) led the majors in WAR. His 42 HR tied for the NL lead.

On This Date 08/25/1990: Cecil Fielder hit this blast that went over the roof at Tiger Stadium.
It was his second HR of the game, his 41st HR of the 1990 season and he would finish with an MLB-leading 51 HR.#Tigers won 14-4.@TigersHistory @1990sBaseballhttps://t.co/mwnUJulJmB pic.twitter.com/CH3rRtu3JB

— Brad ⚾️ (@celeBRADtion) August 25, 2018

Sometimes even that isn’t enough. In 1990, Detroit’s Cecil Fielder became the first Major Leaguer to clout 50 homers since 1977, but still finished second in the AL MVP voting playing for the 79-83 Tigers.

Manny’s Not Well-Liked

Machado has earned a reputation as a hothead with a short fuse that needs little combustion in order to ignite.

He’s been involved in his fair share of on-field incidents during his career. He’s caused more than a few brawls over the years, and earned a four-game suspension from a physical altercation with Kansas City pitcher Yordano Ventura.

The tale of two cities: Why the #Phillies pivoted and pursued Bryce Harper instead of Manny Machado, and why the #Padres chose Machado over Harper? Who will be right, and why the difference in fanfare? https://t.co/2kUOH221WS

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 21, 2019

Philadelphia Phillies owner John Middleton suggested that they opted to sign free-agent Harper over Machado because they felt he was a more determined competitor. Machado has noted that the Padres weren’t his first choice of teams.

He Just Doesn’t Have the Numbers

If you look at Machado’s stats throughout his career, you just can’t make the case that he is of MVP fettle.

Manny Machado tempered the Padres' expectations saying that the team is focused on fighting for a wild card playoff spot.@MadelynBurke and @MsAmyCampbell debate whether already conceding the NL West is a smart move for the $300 million man pic.twitter.com/eTfr9j3jvQ

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) March 11, 2019

He’s only ever led the league in an offensive category once, smacking an AL-best 51 doubles for the Orioles in 2013. His career averages are .282 with 31 homers and 90 RBI. Solid, but not eye popping.

How Manny Machado is handling the 'villain' role he doesn't understand https://t.co/xqBa2vbNO3 pic.twitter.com/M3Uy1OfdBi

— New York Post (@nypost) March 8, 2019

If Harper puts up big digits and the Phillies win, the NL MVP is all his.

Pick: Bryce Harper (+650)