AL MVP Odds Still Favor Trout, But Is There a Smarter Bet(ts)?

• Mike Trout remains the 2018 AL MVP favorite despite missing big chunks of time for an Angels team that’s out of the playoff race.
• Next in the odds are a pair of Red Sox, Mookie Betts and JD Martinez, who are leading Boston to a historic season.
• Who’s the best value for bettors as the 2018 MLB season winds down?

The latest entry in our 2018 AL MVP Tracker had some surprising results …

Mike Trout remains a -180 favorite (see graph below) even though: (a) he hasn’t played since Aug. 1st; (b) he’s been eclipsed in WAR by both Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez; and (c) the Angels are out of playoff contention.

The Case Against Trout for MVP

There’s no disputing that Trout is the best overall player in baseball. But this is a statistically driven award, and one that tends to go to players on competitive teams. It just so happens that the next two players on the list, Mookie Betts (+180) and JD Martinez (+380), play for a record-setting Red Sox squad.

It isn’t always the case that MVPs come from playoff contenders, of course. Trout won in 2016 for a 74-88 Angels team. Crucially, though, he had a WAR of 10.6 that year, a full win above second-place (Betts: 9.6), and he played in 159 games.

Betts finished a close second in MVP voting that year (356 pts to 311 pts), but there are three big differences that weigh in his favor this time around:

1. he’s on pace to surpass almost all of his 2016 statistics (except RBI because he’s batting leadoff);
2. he’s ahead of Trout in many influential categories (see comparison chart below); and
3. the 2018 Red Sox are one of the best teams in MLB history (on pace for 115 wins), whereas the 2016 Red Sox (93-69) were merely very good.

Betts has also missed time due to injury, but he’s played the same number of games as Trout, and when comparing the two head-to-head, his time away makes it all the more impressive that he’s been able to overtake Trout in WAR, a cumulative stat. The video below provides a sampling of his 2018 heroics.

The JD Martinez Factor

Ironically, the biggest threat to Betts’ MVP hopes isn’t actually Trout, it’s his own teammate: JD Martinez. That’s not because Martinez is likely to win the award, himself. He’s a full-time DH, and no full-time DH has ever won AL MVP. (The closest was Don Baylor in 1979, who played 65 games as DH; voters rarely reward players who only play half the game.) It’s because Betts’ perceived value is diminished by Martinez’ own greatness.

[T]he fact that Boston has a more balanced lineup detracts from the individual MVP cases of its two stars [Betts and Martinez]. 

Whereas Trout is clearly the best player on Los Angeles, Martinez has a legitimate case as the best (offensive) player on the Sox. He leads the AL in Slugging %, Hits, Total Bases, and RBI. He’s also second to Khris Davis in home runs.

Put another way, the fact that Boston has a more balanced lineup detracts from the individual MVP cases of its stars.

The Best Bet for AL MVP

The question of who deserves to win MVP isn’t actually what we’re here to address. “Who’s the best value bet to win MVP?” is the real question of the day. And when it comes to value, that clearly lies with Betts.

While the MVP voting body changes from year to year, you can count on a couple things helping Betts’ bid.

[M]any voters will want to reward this historically good Red Sox team. Anyone who needs a tiebreaker in the Trout vs. Betts battle … is apt to favor the player who took his team to … the best season in franchise history.

First, the Red Sox play in one of the biggest markets in America and are one of the most popular teams when it comes to news and highlights. Don’t underestimate the influence their ubiquity will have on voters, sort of like subliminal messaging.

Second, many voters will want to reward this historically good Red Sox team. Anyone who needs a tiebreaker in the Trout vs. Betts battle, which is statistically neck and neck, is apt to favor the player who took his team to, not just the playoffs, not just a division title, but the best season in franchise history.

Take Betts at +180 in what is, at worst, a toss-up race.