Astros vs Braves Picks & Odds (April 23)

• The Astros vs Braves odds list Atlanta as a -145 favorite for Sunday’s series finale
• Max Fried has a 1.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through two starts for Atlanta
• See the latest Astros vs Braves odds below, plus probable pitchers and predictions

The past two World Series champs conclude a three-game series in Atlanta on Sunday, as the Braves host the Astros.

Atlanta, the 2021 champs, have looked like legitimate title contenders once again through the first 20+ games of the season, but the same cannot be said for the Astros. Houston, the reigning champs, had dropped three of its past five series entering this weekend, and online sportsbooks are down on them in Sunday’s MLB odds.

Astros vs Braves Odds

Atlanta opened up as a -145 moneyline favorite, in a contest with a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 1:30 pm ET at Truist Park, in Atlanta, Georgia, with sunshine and 70 degree temperatures in the forecast.

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Odds as of April 22 at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.

Houston vs Atlanta Probable Pitchers

The Braves, the current favorite in the World Series odds, will give the ball to ace Max Fried. The southpaw missed a couple weeks following his Opening Day start due to a hamstring injury, but showed no ill effects in his return earlier this week versus the Padres.

The top-four NL Cy Young odds favorite threw five shutout innings of four-hit ball, striking out four against zero walks. The 29-year-old hasn’t issued a free pass all season, and owns a 1.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through two starts.

Fried doesn’t have a ton of history versus current Astros hitters in the MLB starting lineups, last facing them in the 2021 World Series. He posted a 1-1 record in the championship round that year, shutting Houston out over 6 innings in the title clinching game.

Javier vs Fried Stats

Houston will counter with Cristian Javier, who’s a top-nine AL Cy Young odds candidate. The 26-year-old is fresh off a strong performance versus the high powered Blue Jays, holding them to only three hits and one run in a 9-2 victory.

Javier has surrendered just five runs over 16 home innings this season, posting a 16-to-3 strikeout to walk rate. His lone performance on the road however, did not go so well. He coughed up four runs, including two homers, to the Pirates in a 7-4 defeat.

Javier has faced current members of the Braves roster a combined 48 times over his career, holding them to just 10 hits. Five of those hits however, were home runs with Matt Olson taking him deep twice.

Astros vs Braves Betting Stats

Olson leads the Braves with six home runs so far this season, while three of his teammates have also gone deep at least four times. Ronald Acuna Jr. leads the team with a .369 average, and is the favorite in the NL MVP odds.

Ronald Acuña Jr. wanted to join the home run party. 🎉 pic.twitter.com/AZhqocEeQA

— MLB (@MLB) April 15, 2023

Atlanta’s lineup is among the most potent in the NL, and they rank near the top of most offensive categories. The Braves are third in the National League in runs per game, and second in OPS. They’re also top-four in average and slugging, but they’re certainly not a one-trick pony.

Atlanta owns the league’s third lowest ERA and have yielded the fewest home runs. Their bullpen is also among the best in the NL, ranking second in ERA, third in strand rate and fourth in opponent batting average on balls in play.

Houston meanwhile, is the fifth highest scoring AL team, but the Astros have seen a dip in power from previous seasons. They’ve hit only 20 home runs through 20 games, with Alex Bregman (4) and Yordan Alvarez (5) representing the only roster players with more than three homers.

Astros vs Braves Predictions

Dating back to last year, Fried has not allowed more than two runs in any of past 12 regular season starts. There should be no lingering concerns from his earlier hamstring injury, and we can expect Atlanta to stretch him out versus Houston, after pulling him following only 5 innings in his previous start.

Juan Soto got fooled by Max Fried's curveball and couldn't help but smile pic.twitter.com/1l5BhjPerB

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 18, 2023

Fried’s form and the potency of the Braves bats make them the target on Sunday. Atlanta has lit up opposing teams for at least seven runs in 40% of their games so far, and Javier is due for some negative regression. The Astros righty has surrendered a hard hit rate of 42% in four starts so far, and that’s a recipe for disaster against a lineup as good as the Braves.

Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-145)