Upcoming Match-ups

Best MLB Player Props to Bet on Friday, July 7

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Jul 7, 2023 · 8:10 AM PDT

Ronald Acuna Jr. speeds around the bases
Jul 3, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) rounds third base en route to scoring during the third inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
  • Friday’s MLB Player props are live for the 15-game slate (July 7)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr is slashing .417/.500/.708 over the last week
  • Don’t miss Friday’s best MLB player props to bet, below

The weekend is here, and along with it comes Friday’s 15-game MLB slate. The day’s action is loaded with compelling matchups, including a battle between the Braves and Rays, the top-two contenders in the World Series odds.

That contest is sure to draw plenty of attention in all markets of the MLB odds, and it’s the first game we’re targeting in our Friday player prop picks.

MLB Player Props – Friday, July 7th

Prop Odds
Ronald Acuna Jr Over 1.5 Bases +115
Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts -130
Alex Faedo Over 3.5 Strikeouts -130

Odds as of July 7th at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on MLB player props on Friday.

Our card starts with over 1.5 bases for Ronald Acuna Jr, at juicy +115 odds. Acuna has been on an absolute tear all season, and is one of, if not the most complete player in baseball.

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MLB Player Prop #1: Ronald Acuna Jr Over 1.5 Bases

Over the last week, the favorite in the NL MVP odds is slashing .417/.500/.708. That stretch includes two home runs and five steals, as well as four multi-hit games.

Acuna and the Braves will square off against flamethrower Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, who’s been very hittable this season. Glasnow’s issued a .457 slugging percentage so far, and has yielded six or more hits in three of his past four starts.

The last time he faced a strong lineup the Orioles pounded him for six runs, and Atlanta’s bats led by Acuna are significantly more potent. Acuna and teammate Matt Olson have the two highest wOBA’s over the last two weeks in MLB, while Acuna absolutely rakes versus righties.

He’s currently slashing .343/.416/.599 against right-handed pitching in 2023, with 37 extra-base hits, including 16 home runs.

Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr Over 1.5 Bases (+115)

MLB Player Prop #2: Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts

Sticking with the Braves-Rays mega-tilt for our second selection, as we’re targeting under 7.5 strikeouts for Glasnow. The 29-year-old enters play with a career-high K/9 rate of 14.0, but there’s reasons to believe he’ll fall short of expectations versus the Atlanta regulars in the MLB starting lineups.

As mentioned, the Braves bats on fire. They lead all teams in runs, home runs, average, slugging and wOBA over the past two weeks. Atlanta is averaging 6.8 runs per contest during that stretch, winning 11 of 13 games. They’re fresh off waxing the Guardians 8-1, clubbing 19 hits and three homers in the process.

Not only are the Braves mashing, but they’re also not whiffing at a high rate. They boast a strikeout rate of only 18.4% over the last two weeks, which is the second lowest in baseball.

As for Glasnow, he’s already having trouble going deep in games, and he’ll likely need 6+ innings to hit eight strikeouts versus Atlanta, something he hasn’t accomplished often this season. Glasnow has pitched 5.2 innings or less in six of his seven outings, and boasts just one quality start on his 2023 resume.

Pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)

MLB Player Prop #3: Alex Faedo Over 3.5 Strikeouts

Our final target will be Detroit righty Alex Faedo. We’re banking on him exceeding 3.5 strikeouts versus the Blue Jays, something he’s done in each of his previous four starts.

Faedo’s 5.54 ERA will scare a lot of bettors away, but that number is misleading. He’s allowed an opponent slash line of .220/.233/.450 which is better than most of his fellow Tigers starters. The 27-year-old has pitched into the 5th inning in each of his five starts this season, and averages exactly one strikeout per inning.

Alex Faedo Strikeouts – Last Four Starts

Opponent K’s
Texas Rangers 4
Chicago White Sox 10
Washington Nationals 4
Seattle Mariners 7

Toronto’s lineup meanwhile, has seen a major increase in strikeouts lately. For most of the season the Blue Jays have ranked in the bottom-10 in strikeout rate. The last two weeks however, they’re whiffing at a 25% clip. That’s tied for the sixth highest rate in the league, while they’re fresh off striking out 22 times in a double-header on Thursday in Chicago.

Pick: Alex Faedo Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)

 

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