Braves vs Brewers NLDS Odds, Prediction, and Preview

• The Milwaukee Brewers are -150 favorites over the Atlanta Braves in the best-of-five National League Division Series that begins Friday, October 8th
• Milwaukee will give the ball to Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43 ERA) in Game 1, while Atlanta will counter with Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA)
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

The NL’s No. 2 seed, the Milwaukee Brewers, will host No. 3 seed and four-time reigning NL East-champion Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the NLDS Friday, October 8th, at American Family Field, kicking off the best-of-five series.

The NL Central-champion Brewers have home-field advantage in the series by virtue of a better record in the regular season, finishing 95-67 compared to Atlanta’s 88-73 closing mark.

The odds to win the series reflect Milwaukee’s edge.

Braves vs Brewers NLDS Odds

Odds as of  Oct. 4th at DraftKings.

Each team is well-behind the pace-setting LA Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in the World Series odds enter the postseason. But each squad also possesses a talented roster with recent playoff experience.

Let’s analyze which group is better value to win the series and advance to the NLCS.

Game 1 Probable Pitchers

On the mound Friday, Atlanta’s Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34) faces NL ERA champ Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43).

The bad news for Braves fans? While 18 of Morton’s 33 starts this season have been of quality vintage, Atlanta has only gone 17-16 in his rotation turns. The good news for manager Brian Snitker? Morton is a seasoned postseason vet, sporting a 3.38 ERA in 13 playoff appearances (12 starts). Last season, he went 5.1 innings in Game 7 of the ALCS against the Astros, helping the Rays win the American League pennant over his former club.

Charlie Morton joins John Smoltz (1991) as the only pitchers ever with MULTIPLE career starts of 5+ scoreless in a Game 7. pic.twitter.com/RlFQvV3CfE

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) October 18, 2020

Meantime, Burns became the first Milwaukee pitcher in franchise history to win the ERA title. 18 of his 28 starts have been quality ones and manager Craig Counsell’s club has sported a 19-9 record in his outings.

For all of his success this season (an MLB-leading 6.88 SO/W and 12.6 K/9), the 26-year-old is still unproven in October.

Morton vs Burnes Key Stats

For Game 2, the Braves are slated to send Max Fried (14-7, 3.04) to the bump to face Brandon Woodruff (9-10, 2.56).

Fried has been dazzling this season, tossing 19 quality starts in 28 outings, while the Braves have gone 18-10 in his starts. He’s been particularly filthy over the last two-plus months, though — turning in a dozen straight quality starts and owning a 7-1 record and 1.56 ERA in that timeframe.

#Braves' Max Fried: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 6 K.

In his past 3 starts, he's gone 23 innings and allowed 10 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk w/ 15 strikeouts.

Fried's 1.74 ERA in 14 starts since break is best among MLB qualifiers, ahead of Scherzer (1.78), who's pitching tonight

— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) September 30, 2021

Milwaukee counters with another All-Star in Woodruff. All the 28-year-old has done is spin 20 quality outings among his 30 rotations turns. But Milwaukee has only gone 16-14 in his starts.

Fried vs Woodruff Key Stats

The series shifts to Atlanta Monday for Game 3, where the Brewers will trot out Freddy Peralta (10-5, 2.81) to face Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58)

Peralta is truly the unsung hero of the staff. Fourteen of his 27 starts were quality ones this season, and the Brewers are 18-9 in his turns.

Only 8 MLB pitchers this season threw at least 140 innings and had an ERA+ of at least 150. 3 of them (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta) are on the @Brewers. 🤯@Burnes16 @B_Woody24 @FreddyPeraltaRD @ReviewngTheBrew

— Codify, Inc. (@CodifyBaseball) October 4, 2021

As for Anderson, 10 of the 23-year-old’s 24 starts this season have been quality starts and Atlanta has gone 13-11 in his outings.

Peralta vs Anderson Key Stats

Milwaukee clearly has the edge from a rotation perspective. But Morton’s October experience and Fried’s post All-Star Game performance balances things out.

Balanced Lineups

Atlanta’s offensive centerpiece — and one of game’s elite young players — Ronald Acuna has been out since July with a torn ACL. But the Braves’ offense has not missed a beat in 2021.

Three infielders—Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley—all hit more than 30 home runs this year. And shortstop Dansby Swanson wasn’t far behind with 27 big flies, a franchise record for the position.

A very good Braves offense will be going up against a very good #Brewers pitching staff in NLDS. https://t.co/CZXDLjKHzD

— Tom (@Haudricourt) October 3, 2021

As for Milwaukee, Avisail Garcia and Luis Urias are the big bats on the Brewers with 29 and 23 home runs, respectively, Former MVP Christian Yelich remains dangerous despite a rough finish to the year that saw him record a .221 average and just one home run after Sept. 1.

The Braves have the advantage offensively. But as we’ve seen year-after-year, the regular season isn’t always an indicator of what October holds.

X-Factors

Even if Snitker’s club is able to chase Milwaukee’s trio of stud starters early, lurking in the Brewers’ bullpen is Josh Hader (1.24 ERA, 34 saves). Counsell won’t be shy to deploy Hader in any number of situations. Milwaukee, of course, is without lights-out reliever Devin Williams, who fractured his throwing hand after punching a wall. But there’s potential reserves.

Ashby could play a major role in the Brewers’ bullpen this postseason in the absence of Williams. https://t.co/MwFzvxIL94

— Ken Bartelt (@KBartelt19) September 30, 2021

Another key in this series is Milwaukee’s ability to perform away from American Family. The Brew Crew owned a 50-31 record on the road this season (second-best in MLB).

Pitching always wins in the postseason, but Atlanta’s high-octane offense will be challenging to neutralize. That said, even without Williams, I like Milwaukee to outlast a talented Atlanta club anda advance to a second NLCS appearance in the last four seasons.

The pick: Brewers to advance (-150)