Braves vs Cubs Picks, Odds & Props to Target (Aug. 5)

• Atlanta is a -155 moneyline favorite in the Braves vs Cubs odds on Saturday
• The Braves have smacked 22 home runs in their last eight games
• Don’t miss the latest Braves vs Cubs picks, odds and player props to target below

Entering the first game of their weekend set on Friday, both the Braves (70-37, 33-17 away) and Cubs (55-54, 30-28 home) were playing better than anyone in baseball. After Game 1 of their three-game set, it’s clear one team is a contender, while the other is a pretender.

Atlanta smoked Chicago 8-0 at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon, for their sixth win in their last seven games. They lead MLB in winning percentage, and online sportsbooks expect another triumphant performance over the Cubs in Saturday’s MLB odds.

Braves vs Cubs Odds

Atlanta is currently a -155 moneyline favorite, in a contest without a total as of Friday night. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 pm ET, with a sun-cloud mix, a 40 percent chance of showers, and 82 degree temperatures in the forecast.

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Odds as of August 4 at Caesars. Get a Caesars promo code to bet on ATL vs CHI on Saturday. 

Braves vs Cubs Probable Pitchers

The Braves enter play as the favorite in the World Series odds, just ahead of the Dodgers and Astros. They got six shutout innings from Max Fried on Friday in his return to the bigs, and will hope for a similar performance from Saturday’s starter Bryce Elder.

The 24-year-old is fresh off back-to-back gems, shutting down the Brewers on both occasions. He allowed just eight hits and three runs total over 13 innings, earning a win and a no-decision in a couple Atlanta victories. Elder’s previous two starts were mess, getting smacked around by the D-Backs and Rays, but aside from those two outings, his last six weeks of work has been very impressive.

Games started by Braves pitchers:

Spencer Strider 21
Bryce Elder 21
Charlie Morton 20
Jared Shuster 9
4 guys with 5
2 guys with 3
5 guys with 1

The Braves have really used a 3-man rotation this season and are 66-36.

— Tripp Howell (@PortCityTH) July 30, 2023

He’s allowed two or fewer runs six times during that stretch, and has actually performed better in 2023 as a visitor than at home. Elder owns a 2.85 ERA, and .221 opponent batting average on the road, as opposed to a 3.44 ERA and .253 OBA mark in his own park.

Elder vs Assad Stats

Chicago meanwhile, will turn to Javier Assad to try and slow down the red-hot Braves lineup. Atlanta leads MLB in home runs, total bases, slugging percentage and OPS, and are loaded from the lead-off spot all the way down the order.

Assad has been primarily used as a reliever in his brief two-year career, but is being thrust into a starting role thanks to injuries to the Cubs staff. He’s never faced any of the Braves regulars in the MLB starting lineups, and he’ll need to demonstrate better control if he’s going to last long against them.

Assad is averaging nearly a walk every 2 innings this season, and the last thing you want to do is put men on base versus Atlanta.

Atlanta vs Chicago Predictions

The long ball has been Atlanta’s biggest weapon over the last week and a half, and that was the case again on Friday. The Braves cranked three home runs off Cubs pitching, which accounted for four of their eight runs. Atlanta has now gone deep a whopping 22 times in their last eight games, and are currently on a historic pace.

They’ve blasted 209 homers in 107 games, putting them on pace for 316 dingers this season. The major-league record is currently held by the 2019 Twins, who hit 307 homers.

He didn’t go deep on Friday, but NL MVP odds favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. continued to torment enemy pitchers. The 25-year-old went 3-for-5 with an RBI, and a run scored, and is now hitting north of .500, with a 1.500 OPS in his last eight contests.

Boys scoring faster than we can post fr#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/ZQxzEenp9C

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) August 4, 2023

Teammate Austin Riley remained hot as well, with a home run to extend his hitting streak to nine games, and both are in line for a big day on Saturday. Riley is hitting .370 during his streak, with four home runs and seven RBI.

As for the Chicago bats, all they could muster was four hits in the series opener. The team struck out 11 times versus Fried and company, but big strikeout numbers haven’t plagued this team since the All-Star Break.

They’re whiffing at just a 21% rate since the break, and given the way they were swinging the bat prior to Friday, and Elder’s mediocre K numbers, we shouldn’t expect too many strikeouts for the Braves righty. Elder has exceeded three only once in his last five starts, and boasts a minuscule 6.6 K/9 rate in 2023.

Braves vs Cubs 2023 H2H Results

Even after getting blanked on Friday, Chicago is still averaging over seven runs per game in their last 21 contests. They’re batting north of .300 as a team during that stretch, with 36 home runs and 26 steals.

Picks:

• Braves Moneyline (-155)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. OVER 1.5 Bases (-129)
• Austin Riley OVER 1.5 Bases (-102)
• Bryce Elder Under 3.5 K’s (-107)