- The Brewers vs Marlins odds favor Milwaukee as -165 moneyline favorites on Friday (May 13, 6:40 pm ET)
- Milwaukee will send Corbin Burnes to the mound (1-2, 1.86 ERA), while Miami will counter with Pablo Lopez (4-1, 1.00 ERA)
- Read below for the Brewers vs Marlins odds, analysis and betting prediction
If you like pitching duels, you might want to circle Friday’s Brewers vs Marlins game on your calendar. The contest will feature Corbin Burnes and Pablo Lopez, owners of two of the 10 lowest ERA’s in baseball among qualified starters. Lopez is coming off eight shutout innings versus the Padres, and hasn’t allowed an earned run in four of his six starts.
Burnes meanwhile, gave up just a single run in his last outing, and has surrendered just five earned runs over the last month.
Brewers vs Marlins Odds
|Milwaukee Brewers||-165||-1.5 (+110)||O 6.5 (-105)|
|Miami Marlins||+145||+1.5 (-130)||U 6.5 (-115)|
Odds as of May 12th at Caesars Sportsbook.
Burnes’ Brewers opened up as -165 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of only 6.5 runs. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm ET at the IoanDepot Park in Miami, FL, with 23 degree night time temperatures, and a risk of thunderstorms in the forecast.
Milwaukee vs Miami Probable Pitchers
Milwaukee, remains a top-six contender in the World Series odds, despite dropping three of their last four games. They’ll look to Burnes to stop the bleeding, although as well as he’s pitched this season, it hasn’t led to a ton of Brewers victories. Milwaukee has won just two of his six starts so far this season, after winning 17 of his final 20 starts in 2021.
Corbin Burnes so far in 2022
• 38 innings (12th in MLB)
• 50 strikeouts (3rd in MLB)
• 11.6 K/9 (6th in MLB)
• 1.86 ERA (10th in MLB)
• 0.80 WHIP (3rd in MLB)
— IKE Brewers Podcast (@IKE_Brewers) May 12, 2022
Burnes has dropped back-to-back decisions, despite allowing only three earned runs and striking out 17 batters over 13 innings. He hasn’t posted a victory since April 19th, but despite the lack of wins, he’s still a co-favorite with Max Scherzer in the NL Cy Young odds.
Burnes made his lone career start against the Marlins last year, and it didn’t go well. He gave up five runs and eight hits over 5 innings in an 8-0 defeat.
Burnes vs Lopez
The Marlins also enter play in a funk, having dropped nine of their past 11 outings. One of the few wins during that stretch was Lopez’s gem versus San Diego, and the 26-year-old has been turning in outstanding performances all season.
It's time to start showing Pablo López some love! 🔴🔵
He is through eight scoreless tonight, and has retaken the MLB lead in ERA at 1.00.
Hats off to an incredible performance 👏 pic.twitter.com/LtXq9iOQTa
— Just Baseball (@JustBBMedia) May 8, 2022
Lopez ranks top five in the NL in wins, ERA and WHIP, and has yielded more than one run in just one of his six starts. Florida is 5-1 in those outings, beating not only the Padres, but also the Cardinals, Phillies and Giants, who make up four of the NL’s top-eight contenders to win it all.
He’s 1-1 in three career starts versus the Brewers, but hasn’t faced them since the 2019 season.
Brewers vs Marlins Betting Analysis
If there was ever a team poised to end Lopez’s incredible run the Brewers would have to be one of the top contenders. Milwaukee may have dropped two of three against the Reds this week, but it was no fault of their offense. They crossed the plate 21 times in those three outings, scoring 11 runs on Wednesday in a defeat.
🚨 CYCLE 🚨
Christian Yelich has done it for the 3rd time in his career!
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 11, 2022
Christian Yelich was at the forefront of the offensive explosion, hitting for the cycle for the third time in his career.
The Brewers rank fourth in MLB in runs, second in homers, and top-two in slugging and OPS. Over the past 12 games alone they’ve scored double-digit runs five times.
Miami’s struggles meanwhile, have had a lot to do with a sputtering lineup. The Marlins have crossed the plate three or fewer times in five of their past seven outings, and rank slightly above league average in runs, slugging and OPS.
MIL vs MIA Last 10 Meetings
|Date||Away Team||Home Team||Score|
Brewers vs Marlins Pick
With a total of only 6.5 runs, oddsmakers are clearly expecting both of these starters to excel. However, if one of these lineups is going to break through against one of these elite pitchers, it’s likely going to be Milwaukee.
The Brewers are swinging the bats too well to ignore at the moment, and now that they have their ace on hill it’s time for them to get back into the win column.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-165)